quarantine

[Oss]

Has come to New Rochelle NY

I was supposed to have a CLE (Mandatory ethics course) tonight at the Wykygill Country club that was cancelled

Hear the National Guard is coming to enforce the zone

Lets see if my prediction comes true, the flu leaves in May when it warms up and doesnt come back (until maybe a few years from now)

Eat healthy, get your rest and stay out of court.  Well 2 out of 3 aint bad for me

[Valkorado]

You city slickers gotta be extra careful.   I hope it all works out well across our nation for all Americans, especially or elderly and vulnerable.   Our President is speaking live in just over a half an hour.

And I am planning to stay out of court.   And incarceration.

[Willow]

...
Lets see if my prediction comes true, the flu leaves in May when it warms up and doesnt come back (until maybe a few years from now)
...

So if it's going to diminish with warm weather why is it spreading in the Southern Hemisphere?

[Pappy!]

I can tell you we see a bunch more cases of flu in the colder months down here than we see in the hotter months.

[cookiedough]

...
Lets see if my prediction comes true, the flu leaves in May when it warms up and doesnt come back (until maybe a few years from now)
...

So if it's going to diminish with warm weather why is it spreading in the Southern Hemisphere?

that is a good point.   I thought this corona virus dies off if over 80 degrees or higher?   Just heard Congress declared 1/3 of all people will get infected with this crap.  If true, that is scary news nationwide like 1st post said this _hit is getting real! 

[henry 008]

thats why i like living in the middle of nowhere small town. we won't see the virus for a couple years yet... 

[Valkorado]

thats why i like living in the middle of nowhere small town. we won't see the virus for a couple years yet... 

I'm thinking more like within a couple weeks...

[The emperor has no clothes]

thats why i like living in the middle of nowhere small town. we won't see the virus for a couple years yet... 

I'm thinking more like within a couple weeks...

Probably there already, just don’t know it.

[Valkorado]

Why quarantine is important.  It'll keep our hospitals from overflowing, and fewer medical staff will fall ill.

FLATTEN THE CURVE.

[Valkorado]

...
Lets see if my prediction comes true, the flu leaves in May when it warms up and doesnt come back (until maybe a few years from now)
...

So if it's going to diminish with warm weather why is it spreading in the Southern Hemisphere?

that is a good point.   I thought this corona virus dies off if over 80 degrees or higher?   Just heard Congress declared 1/3 of all people will get infected with this crap.  If true, that is scary news nationwide like 1st post said this _hit is getting real! 

WHO says they are seeing nothing to indicate this novel virus will die off with warming weather.

[DIGGER]

You can get all kinds of predictions but this from a infectuous disease


My brither and i just listened to an infectuous disease expert who said the coronvirus is just starting.    He predicts in next 7 months the virus doubles the number of infections every 4 days and will overall infect approximately 92 million people world wide with approximately 480 thousand deaths

[..]

Not my words :-

Disease

A disease is an abnormal state in the human body, psyche or the interpersonal negotiations, which causes greater levels of morbidity and mortality. It is usually associated with symptoms and signs. The disease may be caused by congenital, traumatic, toxic, infectious, inflammatory, neoplastic, metabolic, degenerative, iatrogenic, vascular, etc. One of the most common causes is the infective organisms, which include bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses. Metabolic causes, give rise to a set of the most common present day diseases, namely diabetes mellitus. As mentioned here, single diseases can occur due to a set of diseases. Thus, coronary artery disease can be due to hypertension, diabetes mellitus and obesity. There are various sets of permutations of the level of contribution, all ultimately lead to CAD. On occasions, complications of a disease can cause greater morbidity than the disease itself.

Virus

A virus, as mentioned above is an infectious agent, which contributes to the causation and spread of infectious diseases. These are minute agents, only seen by the electron microscope and require another living cell to proliferate and produce other viral particles. This is due to the lack of self replicating machinery or metabolic functions required to proliferate itself. They spread using various methodologies from direct to vector based spread. And these cause and have caused dangerous epidemics and pandemics like Ebola fever, Lassa fever, and more recently Dengue fever, all the influenzas including swine flu. The most famous in the recent past and currently is HIV. One of the problems faced in dealing with viruses is that, some of them, have a tendency to change their genetic material from generation to generation, thus, a proper anti viral agent cannot be produced to kill off that virus. This is the case with HIV/AIDS. There are other uses in biotechnology with the viruses like gene therapy, phage therapy, etc.

[carolinarider09]

You can get all kinds of predictions but this from a infectuous disease


My brither and i just listened to an infectuous disease expert who said the coronvirus is just starting.    He predicts in next 7 months the virus doubles the number of infections every 4 days and will overall infect approximately 92 million people world wide with approximately 480 thousand deaths

So, based on the current world population that would mean that 12% of the worlds population will be infected in 7 months.  And that the death rate will be 0.5% of those affected. (Someone may want to check my math).  And please remember, some will never know they were infected. 

In researching data for the flu (cannot be easily found worldwide, at least by me), the following was noted on one website.

"During the severe 2017-2018 flu seasonTrusted Source, one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu."

https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics#4

That is the death rate was 8.8%.  (Again please check my math).  And the keyword is those "hospitalized". 

We will never ever know how many people actually were infected with the "flu" in the 2017-2018 flu season since not all required doctors or hospital visits.  Stats are varied and open to "conjecture" when no accurate way of making a determination of those actually infected is available. 

[Valkorado]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09?mod=hp_minor_pos19

So what are the differences between coronavirus and the flu? For starters, there is no vaccine for COVID-19 and it could take many months or years to get one to market, and, unlike the influenza viruses for which there are several vaccines, humans have not built up an immunity over multiple generations. What’s worse, doctors fear the virus will mutate.


‘This is additive, not in place of. Yes, the flu kills thousands of people every year, but we’re going to have more deaths.’ — Amesh Adalja, Infectious Diseases Society of America
Seasonal flu has a fatality rate of less than 1%. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on Capitol Hill, estimates that the fatality rate of flu is closer to 0.1%. But even accounting for the mild, yet undiagnosed cases of COVID-19, he said Wednesday, it would still make it “roughly 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”

Another reason not to compare the two viruses: Influenza has likely been around for more than 2,000 years. Scientists say the “novel influenza A viruses” in humans lead to a pandemic approximately once every 40 years. But, again, flu vaccines exist. “The flu has been with us since the birth of modern medicine,” said Adalja.
What has all this got to do with COVID-19? There is an advantage to coming down with a virus that has been around for hundreds, if not a couple of thousand, years. Humans, ideally, will have built up more natural defenses to fight it.

Complicating matters: influenza and COVID-19 come from different virus families, and COVID-19 is brand new. “There are four other strains of the coronavirus, but the attack rate of this virus is relatively high as there is no immunity to it,” Adalja said.

To put that in perspective: In 2017–18, the worst flu season on record in the U.S. outside of a pandemic, approximately 80,000 Americans died. The four other coronavirus strains that already exist are responsible for around 25% of our common colds, Adalja added.

“But it doesn’t seem like there is cross-immunity with this coronavirus as there are with the other coronaviruses,” he added. In other words, the natural defense systems in our body that help us ward off flu are unlikely to apply here.

[carolinarider09]

From NPR (See link below).  Summary - 62% of the US population got or were planning on get a flu vaccine in 2015.  Point being, a vaccine for the flu exists (well for certain strains and each flu season has new strains that the vaccine will probably not cover). 

"Flu season is in swing and likely won't let up until April.

It seemed like high time to check in on how Americans feel about flu vaccination, so we asked more than 3,000 adults in the latest NPR-Truven Health Analytics Health Poll, conducted during the first half of October.

All told, 62 percent of people said they had been vaccinated or intended to get vaccinated against flu."

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2015/11/27/456202280/many-americans-believe-they-dont-need-the-flu-vaccine

[Valkorado]

Coronavirus is trivial.   Nothing to see here.   Move on.

[carolinarider09]

For reference 2009

2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus)

"In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged. It was detected first in the United States and spread quickly across the United States and the world. This new H1N1 virus contained a unique combination of influenza genes not previously identified in animals or people. This virus was designated as influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus. Ten years later work continues to better understand influenza, prevent disease, and prepare for the next pandemic."

"Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."


In other words the death rate for those hospitalized (the only real verifiable statistic) was 4.54%

Read more here

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

[Valkorado]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__VQX2Xn7tI

Two months.   Let's see what's up in two months...

[carolinarider09]

Hope for the best but expect the worst

To have hope that a positive occurrence will happen, while simultaneously readying for a negative outcome

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_TKXPPjhRk

[carolinarider09]

Enough with the negative waves moriarty

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncbEucjsNFU&t=68s

[Jess from VA]

The confusing part of this virus to me is how long it lasts in the body.  They are saying 5 weeks, though only 2 week quarantine is being used, so far.

Generally/usually, once you get a virus and survive, you are immune to that particular virus and can't get it again.  Except many people (esp China) are testing positive after they've had it and survived and quarantined two weeks.  So are they getting it again?  

Some articles are saying that they are not getting it again, but they got it, suffered with it, got better, but are not entirely clear of the infection, so they are still testing positive from the original infection.  Some are also saying the testing is not always accurate.  

What I am wondering is that if you get it, suffer, and then get better (the vast majority), are you still infectious to others so long as you continue to test positive?  I doubt many are testing anyway after they get better.  Is that 5 weeks on average?

Though I live in urban sprawl,  I've been a bit of hermit during my 10 years of retirement.  I go out for food and supplies when needed, go riding when I can, but do not spend a lot of time around other humans on a daily basis.  All I'm doing different now is trying to be more careful in when I go (early), what I touch (and not my face), and scrubbing up afterward.

My only daily contact with others is my mail.  Understanding that mail goes through a system with a lot of humans involved, and that this crap can hang around a few days on things, I guess I need to be more clinically minded with my mail delivery.  

I am not panicking or trying to spread panic, only to take reasonable precautions.  

Living alone, I have not had one single virus, flu or even a common cold for the 10 years of my retirement.  I'd like to keep it that way.  I am only in decent physical shape for my age (67), but have always had a good immune system.  My childhood mumps and chicken pox were so mild, I was angry mom made me stay home from school.

Last question:  I drink lots of water, daily.  Are the electrolytes in Gatorade (or other) so much better that having some of that on hand (now) is a good idea?  I drank some Gatorade 30 years ago and was not impressed enough with the taste to ever try it again.  it wasn't bad, but it wasn't good either.    

[Valkorado]

Hope for the best but expect the worst

To have hope that a positive occurrence will happen, while simultaneously readying for a negative outcome

Preparation?

"On the front end of a pandemic, you look a little bit like an alarmist. You look a little bit like a Chicken Little – the sky is falling," Acton said. "On the back end of the pandemic, you didn't do enough."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/14/coronavirus-ohio-emerges-leader-u-s-coronavirus-response/5049489002/

[Valkorado]

Jess some questions answered here, people can shed  virus for weeks after "recovery"

Their best guess with new information is 5 day incubation (from contacting to symptoms).  


Some folks are asymptomatic, don't know they've got it.  Others get sick but fight it off, heard just today three weeks of feeling crappy Gatorade cold/flu meds, soup and grilled cheese, Netflix.  They do say it hammers ya.  These make up 80%.

20% worse, but still 2-6 weeks unfortunately hospitalized, anywhere from stable to critical.  Won't mention others.

Recovery time from the illness (after virus negative) varies depending on above, degree of lung and/or organ damage, bacterial infection, etc.


People probably aren’t being re-infected after recovery.  Note probably because some reported cases but not sure if in medical journals and reports.  I have been checking those from time to time but they are dry.

Been spraying a short blast of Lysol in mailbox, also on letters and parcels.  Hey, it's my life!  Noticed a cashier at Safeway other day giving my change by holding the tip of the bill.  Big honkin' jug of Purell by his register.

if you can beat it on your own use Ibuprofen or Tylenol for fever and yes electrolyte it's best PowerAde is better than Gatorade if u can't break fever in  12 hours or dry cough gets worse call for test (or new government website).
 Don't mess around at that point. Fever and dry cough are most telltale symptoms.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/06/were-learning-a-lot-about-the-coronavirus-it-will-help-us-assess-risk/

[Willow]

The confusing part of this virus to me is how long it lasts in the body.  They are saying 5 weeks, though only 2 week quarantine is being used, so far.
...

My understanding is that the two weeks is not based upon how long the virus can remain in the body but in how long it can be in the body before being detected by a test.

...
What I am wondering is that if you get it, suffer, and then get better (the vast majority), are you still infectious to others so long as you continue to test positive?  I doubt many are testing anyway after they get better.  Is that 5 weeks on average?
...

If the virus is still active in one's body my understanding is that it is still communicable although possibly at a much lower rate.

...
Living alone, I have not had one single virus, flu or even a common cold for the 10 years of my retirement.  ...

That's both redundant and repetitious, Jess.  The flu and the common cold are viral infections.   

[DDT (12)]

Quote from: Jess from VA on Today at 09:14:13 PM
...
Living alone, I have not had one single virus, flu or even a common cold for the 10 years of my retirement.  ...

That's both redundant and repetitious, Jess.  The flu and the common cold are viral infections.   






Jess,

Redundancies aside, that's quite an accomplishment! Appears you use large doses of common sense and situational awareness to keep yourself 'in play' and out of harm's way... Wish I could say that! Kudos...

DDT

[The emperor has no clothes]

Quote from: Jess from VA on Today at 09:14:13 PM
...
Living alone, I have not had one single virus, flu or even a common cold for the 10 years of my retirement.  ...

That's both redundant and repetitious, Jess.  The flu and the common cold are viral infections.   






Jess,

Redundancies aside, that's quite an accomplishment! Appears you use large doses of common sense and situational awareness to keep yourself 'in play' and out of harm's way... Wish I could say that! Kudos...

DDT

no kidding ! I'm just tickled pink if I go one year without a cold or flu.

[cookiedough]

WI schools are all closing for at least 2 weeks now and cannot even go see my mom in assisted living small 8 person complex nearby got email last night.     WE should all just crawl under a rock and hunker down hibernating like a bear in winter?   

Just wish my employer would be smart and allow those like me and others who can do 90% of our entire jobs thru a laptop at home with intranet connection.  Yet, my employer is too cheap to do so cannot afford apparently 200 dollar laptops for most...  tight wads!   

there is talk believe me though in a lot of employment places of shutting down entirely for awhile anyways.  Sure wish my place was one of them...     would love to work from home daily for life!   

[Jess from VA]

Living alone, I have not had one single virus, flu or even a common cold for the 10 years of my retirement.  

Redundancies aside, that's quite an accomplishment!  Appears you use large doses of common sense and situational awareness to keep yourself 'in play' and out of harm's way... Wish I could say that! Kudos...

DDT

Other than living alone and being a bit of a hermit Bruce, I have really taken no precautions at all and have never been a clean or germ freak (though I try not to touch public door handles or use public toilets).  I take no meds, vitamins or supplements either.  And I clean my house every few months whether it needs it or not.    

Just lately though, I am actively trying to be more careful.... who wouldn't?  

[shadowsoftime]

this bs virus is going to cause a recession. emails from all sorts of business saying they are taking steps to be clean, they are worried big time. get ready for price drops from fast food to building materials and all in between.

[shadowsoftime]

7,000 world wide have died, 71,000 have recovered.   

[Valkorado]

7,000 world wide have died, 71,000 have recovered.  

Better than vise versa!    

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-q9xeOgG4

"Enjoy it, it's your last chance anyhow".   

[cookiedough]

this bs virus is going to cause a recession. emails from all sorts of business saying they are taking steps to be clean, they are worried big time. get ready for price drops from fast food to building materials and all in between.

yah,  recession is going to happen and prices drop or rise accordingly depending on need/availability.  I do love though gas prices have dropped in one week over 20 cents per gallon that makes me happy considering me and the misses go thru one tank of gas each per week driving to work.  If ONLY both our employers would let us work from home since both of us can do over 90% of our jobs at home already that would be SUPER AWESOME.      Give me a laptop and 2 monitors and faster printer/copier paper/ink and all set ready to hunker down at home doing work for life.     NO contact 1 on 1 face to face with anyone at work would be super super awesome.   

[scooperhsd]

The misses is all setup for work from home - in fact - they are sending PC's and monitors home with everyone, and they will be required (ain't that strange ?) to work one day per month from home to make sure they still can. Course - she is so swamped that she is supposed to login for some more overtime this weekend to help keep up....

[cookiedough]

The misses is all setup for work from home - in fact - they are sending PC's and monitors home with everyone, and they will be required (ain't that strange ?) to work one day per month from home to make sure they still can. Course - she is so swamped that she is supposed to login for some more overtime this weekend to help keep up....

that is a good thing, wish more companies would not be so fricking cheap and allow more people who can easily work from home do it ALL the time.    I do not mind overtime get more moola but to go 2 years ago from a job that wanted you to work 55-60 hours EVERY week (60 hours max) to my current job that should allow overtime but does not (cheap company)  and ONLY bitches when the workload does not get done in a 40 hour week is worse.  I prefer a happy medium some overtime 41-50 hour weeks are fine with me.

[Bighead]

this bs virus is going to cause a recession. emails from all sorts of business saying they are taking steps to be clean, they are worried big time. get ready for price drops from fast food to building materials and all in between.

Price drops?

[Valkorado]

Katie,  bar the door!


Gotta admit this was an attention getter.  We have a local outbreak,  apparently a pretty bad one!   Thank goodness I have enough toilet paper!  

https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdphe/news/cdphe-strongly-advises-all-visitors-and-residents-eagle-summit-pitkin-and-gunnison-counties


CDPHE strongly advises all visitors and residents of Eagle, Summit, Pitkin, and Gunnison counties to minimize social contact

 
DENVER, March 15, 2020: Due to extensive spread of COVID-19 in a number of mountain resort communities, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) strongly recommends that anyone who lives in or has visited those communities in the past week minimize their contact with other people, in order to reduce the spread of the virus.

 
Anyone who has been in Eagle, Summit, Pitkin, or Gunnison counties in the past week should minimize all contact with other people, whether or not they are experiencing symptoms.

 
If you are experiencing symptoms (cough, fever, and shortness of breath), you must be isolated for at least 7-10 days after the onset of symptoms. It is only safe to leave isolation if your symptoms are improving and you don't have a fever for 72 hours immediately prior to the end of your isolation. Isolation may be longer for individuals who have more severe illness or who work in high-risk occupations like health care.

 
Community transmission is likely increasing across the state, so these measures are important to implement everywhere but are particularly urgent for residents and visitors of mountain communities that are already experiencing high rates of community transmission.

 

[Oss]

Schools closing for a month
Court is closing tomorrow night unless trial is actually in progress

I believe my family can ride this out but most of my clients are in deep $hit, no evictions may take place for a month even if tenant is destroying the place.  Look to see some self help situations real soon,


If you are about to close on a house you will be getting the lowest interest rate in 80 years
Since the great depression.

I think below 3% is what will be there next week

Maybe a good time to refinance your home if you are at 5% or higher and more than 10 years left on your mortgage

[The emperor has no clothes]

Schools closing for a month
Court is closing tomorrow night unless trial is actually in progress

I believe my family can ride this out but most of my clients are in deep $hit, no evictions may take place for a month even if tenant is destroying the place.  Look to see some self help situations real soon,


If you are about to close on a house you will be getting the lowest interest rate in 80 years
Since the great depression.

I think below 3% is what will be there next week

Maybe a good time to refinance your home if you are at 5% or higher and more than 10 years left on your mortgage

Just my luck  mortgage rates at historic low and I got no mortgage.  I hope you don't have to miss much work.

[DGS65]

Schools in Rockland are preparing for a long term shutdown may be until the end of the school year.  My wife is retiring in June this is not how she wants to closeout her career!

[shadowsoftime]

Schools closing for a month
Court is closing tomorrow night unless trial is actually in progress

I believe my family can ride this out but most of my clients are in deep $hit, no evictions may take place for a month even if tenant is destroying the place.  Look to see some self help situations real soon,


If you are about to close on a house you will be getting the lowest interest rate in 80 years
Since the great depression.

I think below 3% is what will be there next week

Maybe a good time to refinance your home if you are at 5% or higher and more than 10 years left on your mortgage

Just my luck  mortgage rates at historic low and I got no mortgage.  I hope you don't have to miss much work.

glad everything we have is paid off, but if it makes you feel better go mortgage something.