When Will It End?

[F6Dave]

Here's a link to the IHME's state by state (and nation by nation) COVID19 hospitalization and fatality models:  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The IHME is a research center at the University of Washington, and their models are widely cited in the news I've seen.  They get updated every day, and currently show the national peak occurring next week.  The state peaks vary by over a month, with some states peaking several weeks from now.  A few states have already peaked; for instance here in Colorado it's projected we may have peaked a few days ago.

Not surprisingly, the models use hospitalization and fatality data as those numbers are nearly 100% accurate.  However they completely ignore the case counts, which are nearly useless in the absence of randomized testing.

[Valkorado]

And when it does end, will things be back to "normal"?

https://www.foxnews.com/health/fauci-says-world-may-never-return-back-to-normal-after-coronavirus-outbreak

[hubcapsc]

It's really chemtrails... that's why they can predict the peak -
the planes aren't flying anymore, so we're peaking 




-Mike

[..]

It's really chemtrails... that's why they can predict the peak -
the planes aren't flying anymore, so we're peaking 




-Mike

 

[Skinhead]

It's really chemtrails... that's why they can predict the peak -
the planes aren't flying anymore, so we're peaking 




-Mike

You just had to go there didn't you Hubscrap.

[hubcapsc]

You just had to go there didn't you Hubscrap.

I think there used to be more posts in this thread  ...
anywho... I like chemtrails 

-Mike

[Valkorado]

Back on topic.     I don't agree with this assessment, but it gives an idea of what they're thinking...

"... (restrictions) should remain in place until there is "a prolonged, sustained reduction in the number of cases."

"I would like to see several weeks, maybe even a month or two of prolonged, sustained reduction in the number of cases, reduction in the number of hospitalizations and admissions to the ICU," said Nesheiwat, who added she also wanted to see a "reduction of the number of ventilations."


Dr. Nesheiwat: Coronavirus restrictions should stay until we see 'several weeks' of reduced case numbers

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-janette-nesheiwat-coronavirus-restrictions-several-weeks

"So it's a matter of staying at home to help prevent the spread of this virus, because it's a very highly infectious and contagious virus and it's a very wicked virus that is causing a lot of lung damage and putting a lot of people in the hospitals."

[Willow]

...
"I would like to see several weeks, maybe even a month or two of prolonged, sustained reduction in the number of cases, ..."
...

I wonder why she didn't just say she wanted to wait until the heartbeat of the economy was entirely silent.   

[Valkorado]

Ya think that's bad, ol' Zeke wants to keep the lockdown going for 18 months.  Back to the stone age.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-obamacare-architect-zeke-emanuel-says-u-s-should-prepare-ourselves-for-coronavirus-social-distancing-to-last-18-months

"The truth is we have no choice. ... We cannot return to normal until there's a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure."

He added: "We need to prepare ourselves for this to last 18 months or so and for the toll that it will take."

[Serk]

Ya think that's bad, ol' Zeke wants to keep the lockdown going for 18 months.  Back to the stone age.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-obamacare-architect-zeke-emanuel-says-u-s-should-prepare-ourselves-for-coronavirus-social-distancing-to-last-18-months

"The truth is we have no choice. ... We cannot return to normal until there's a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure."

He added: "We need to prepare ourselves for this to last 18 months or so and for the toll that it will take."

The architect of Obamacare..... Never let a crisis go to waste.... Cloward-Piven strategy in action, an attempt to make the whole populace 100% reliant on government for all needs.

[F6Dave]

Here's a link to the IHME's state by state (and nation by nation) COVID19 hospitalization and fatality models:  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The IHME is a research center at the University of Washington, and their models are widely cited in the news I've seen.  They get updated every day, and currently show the national peak occurring next week.  The state peaks vary by over a month, with some states peaking several weeks from now.  A few states have already peaked; for instance here in Colorado it's projected we may have peaked a few days ago.

Not surprisingly, the models use hospitalization and fatality data as those numbers are nearly 100% accurate.  However they completely ignore the case counts, which are nearly useless in the absence of randomized testing.

Yesterday the IHME model predicted about 81,000 fatalities in the US.  After today's updates the number has dropped to about 60,000.  If this pandemic turns out to have numbers similar to a very bad flu season, the statists will have a hard sell.

[Serk]

Yesterday the IHME model predicted about 81,000 fatalities in the US.  After today's updates the number has dropped to about 60,000.  If this pandemic turns out to have numbers similar to a very bad flu season, the statists will have a hard sell.

I'm about as anti-statist as ya' get, but I also can recognize extraordinary circumstances.  If the numbers go low, and I hope they do, it could just prove that the extreme measures that have been taken were successful and saved lives.

The issue will become how long to extend those measures, and how willingly will the government give these powers up. THAT'S where my lack of trust in government will become an issue.

[F6Dave]

Yesterday the IHME model predicted about 81,000 fatalities in the US.  After today's updates the number has dropped to about 60,000.  If this pandemic turns out to have numbers similar to a very bad flu season, the statists will have a hard sell.

I'm about as anti-statist as ya' get, but I also can recognize extraordinary circumstances.  If the numbers go low, and I hope they do, it could just prove that the extreme measures that have been taken were successful and saved lives.

The issue will become how long to extend those measures, and how willingly will the government give these powers up. THAT'S where my lack of trust in government will become an issue.

I'm probably being a little too optimistic.  The schemes to capitalize on this crisis are showing up everywhere.  I think Trump's instincts to reopen the economy quickly are driven more by his love of capitalism than respect for the constitution.  But at least he's pulling in the right direction.  Can you imagine if Hillary were running things?  Even if plenty of her cronies are still embedded in the deep state, at least they have some opposition at the top.

[Valkorado]

Yesterday the IHME model predicted about 81,000 fatalities in the US.  After today's updates the number has dropped to about 60,000.  If this pandemic turns out to have numbers similar to a very bad flu season, the statists will have a hard sell.

I'm about as anti-statist as ya' get, but I also can recognize extraordinary circumstances.  If the numbers go low, and I hope they do, it could just prove that the extreme measures that have been taken were successful and saved lives.

The issue will become how long to extend those measures, and how willingly will the government give these powers up. THAT'S where my lack of trust in government will become an issue.

I have no doubt the stay at home orders and social distancing measures have saved lives.  America needs to move again before stagnation sets in.  I'm glad I'm not one of those tasked with the where's, when's and how's.  It's a catch-22 for sure.

[Willow]

We can never know what would've (notice not of) happened down the path not traveled. 

If the number of deaths do indeed turn out to be near the currently projected count the following argument will be like trying to convince one who has changed his oil every two thousand miles and insists that's why he's never had an oil related issue.  The measures taken, no doubt, resulted in fewer deaths from COVID-19.  The real question is whether shutting down the economy was necessary.  How many lives would have been "saved" by less damaging measures?  A related question might be do we think it's necessary every year to shut down the economy during "flu season" to save those lives?

We've been victimized.  Have we been victimized by yet another rampant viral infection, by an overly zealous media, by an aggressive government, or by them all in some level of conjunction?

An interesting analogy might be your going to your personal physician.  He tells you that you've a .0016% chance of catching and dying from a disease to which your immune system is vulnerable.  He says that if it doesn't kill you you've still a .01% chance of enduring and surviving the disease.  He tells you your defense against this illness is to quit working, sell your house and possessions living your life in poverty.  Would you take those measures?  That's a pretty close parallel to what we've done if we destroy our economy to save those COVID-19 victims.   

[Wizzard]

We can never know what would've (notice not of) happened down the path not traveled. 

If the number of deaths do indeed turn out to be near the currently projected count the following argument will be like trying to convince one who has changed his oil every two thousand miles and insists that's why he's never had an oil related issue.  The measures taken, no doubt, resulted in fewer deaths from COVID-19.  The real question is whether shutting down the economy was necessary.  How many lives would have been "saved" by less damaging measures?  A related question might be do we think it's necessary every year to shut down the economy during "flu season" to save those lives?

We've been victimized.  Have we been victimized by yet another rampant viral infection, by an overly zealous media, by an aggressive government, or by them all in some level of conjunction?

An interesting analogy might be your going to your personal physician.  He tells you that you've a .0016% chance of catching and dying from a disease to which your immune system is vulnerable.  He says that if it doesn't kill you you've still a .01% chance of enduring and surviving the disease.  He tells you your defense against this illness is to quit working, sell your house and possessions living your life in poverty.  Would you take those measures?  That's a pretty close parallel to what we've done if we destroy our economy to save those COVID-19 victims.   

I made same argument on another forum and got told I was a heartless bastard

[Jess from VA]

Humans are not an endangered species. 

We are our own virus, in so many ways. 

I'm withholding any conclusory opinion on how bad our market and economy are hurt by our reactions to this virus, until I actually see just how bad our market and economy are hurt... and for how long.

I think we can tread water for awhile, but not for months on end.   

[Valkorado]

We've been victimized.  Have we been victimized by yet another rampant viral infection, by an overly zealous media, by an aggressive government, or by them all in some level of conjunction?

I'd throw in science, or better yet scientists.   I don't know that I feel victimized by their figures and models as much as bewildered by them.   If you remember when Fauci started talking 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths I posted that I thought he was pulling those numbers out of a hat.   I'd seen the death tallies from other countries and it didn't jibe.  It's  likely Fauci was fudging the numbers,  and my question is, why?  If it was to "convince"  state policymakers to tighten their collective grip it seems to have worked.   Did the end justify the means?   It'll be debated for decades.