Observations on current events

[DarkSideR]

My thoughts on current events;

I'm a numbers guys. I like stats, and figures. Why? Well, numbers don't lie. Numbers are a hard truth. 2+2=4 no matter what!

I started to take note when things were not adding up, and have since posted many times.. well numbers.

From my posts and comments I have found there are two camps of people out there.
- The first camp sees the numbers, but also sees that the numbers do not line up with what the media is portraying, and the extreme measures being taken.
- The second camp looks past the numbers. The values don't equate to what they are being told. They have a formed opinion that won't be swayed by truth, or fact.

Through this I have noticed that a hatred for Trump coincides with the second camp. Which is ironic because it's this camp that claims the first is a camp of conspiracy theorists.

During conversations with people in the second camp I have found it always ends the same way. When those in the second camp cannot gain traction they resort to childish name calling and/or insults.
 
What I can conclude from this is that hate truly blinds.

[carolinarider09]

Not in exactly the same vein, I have noticed what you have noticed.  I have also noticed that when logic fails or facts do not support a specific opinion, then you, if you are opposing that opinion, are generally given a label.

The most obvious label has the term "denier" in it.

When we are given a label, its easy to then use that label to put you in a group, wether or not you are really part of that group. 

I believe the labels are given to divide and conquer, to segregate us.   

I have been given the "denier" label serval times.  I believe in truth, facts and logic. 

However, today, when you can do a search using your favorite search engine (I use DuckDuckgo) you find lots of stuff.  And it is hard, and sometimes impossible to verify the validity of what you find. 


But, the key is logic and source, and ultimately "motive". 

[michaelyoung254]

I have to agree with you on your observation of the two camps. Not just on here, but on other social media sites as well.

I'm pretty active on Facebook (I don't really post all that much, but I read it a lot) and have a sizeable number people that I went to high school with that make up a large number of "Friends" on there.

There are both conservatives and liberals among the group although the conservatives outnumber the liberals. Anyway, just the other day one of the liberal posters was going on about President Trump advising people to inject disinfectants to kill the COVID-19 virus. A few of the more conservative posters replied stating that he didn't tell people to inject disinfectant, and one person linked the video where this "Misinformation" started. While one of the conservative posters did post that "He was surprised that she actually believed the fake news reports", none of our posts were attacking or even could be considered aggressive. We simply provided facts.

Her response, she clearly became angry, threatened to "Unfriend" us, and then unfriended and blocked everybody that didn't agree with her.

[DarkSideR]

Not in exactly the same vein, I have noticed what you have noticed.  I have also noticed that when logic fails or facts do not support a specific opinion, then you, if you are opposing that opinion, are generally given a label.

The most obvious label has the term "denier" in it.

When we are given a label, its easy to then use that label to put you in a group, wether or not you are really part of that group.  

I believe the labels are given to divide and conquer, to segregate us.  

I have been given the "denier" label serval times.  I believe in truth, facts and logic.  

However, today, when you can do a search using your favorite search engine (I use DuckDuckgo) you find lots of stuff.  And it is hard, and sometimes impossible to verify the validity of what you find.  


But, the key is logic and source, and ultimately "motive".  

Agreed, we are truly a divided country. Sad.

I also use DuckDuckGo.

[Valkorado]

I'm from this camp.   I don't quite fit in either of your predefined camps.  I've always been a square peg that way.

I'm glad to see society and our economy opening back up.  I'm a conservative Republican,  and have voted that way my entire adult life.

I've noticed that posting articles regarding the science behind COVID are often meet with resistance, especially if the article mentions the virus kills.  The article is liberal,  as is the poster.  Sh!t can it.

I've noticed that if an article acknowledges that the virus can be deadly,  it riles the hell out of some folks.   They are the only true conservatives and real patriots,  the virus is piddly and thinking otherwise is media hype.

Conversely, if I post an article in support of our President there are generally few ripples even though he has acknowledged that we are at war with an invisible enemy that some would poo-poo if they were dying from.

Life isn't that easily cut and dried.

I'm a numbers guy, too.  As we watch the mortality numbers grow over the next month or so,  I'm guessing the final tally won't be that far from the model that convinced our President to rightly declare a national emergency in the first place.

[h13man]

And we're being regulated by what's happening in NY city. Go figure. Common sense isn't apart of a politicians view that is more concerned about their next vote to stay in power. Quite a "fine Americans" mindset going on now.

[DarkSideR]

I'm from this camp.

I'm glad to see society and our economy opening back up.  I'm a conservative Republican,  and have voted that way my entire adult life.

I've noticed that posting articles regarding the science behind COVID are often meet with resistance, especially if the article mentions the virus kills.  The article is liberal,  as is the poster.  Sh!t can it.

I've noticed that if an article acknowledges that the virus can be deadly,  it riles the hell out of some folks.   They are the only true conservatives and real patriots,  the virus is piddly and thinking otherwise is media hype.

Conversely, if I post an article in support of our President there are generally few ripples even though he has acknowledged that we are at war with an invisible enemy that some would poo-poo if they were dying from.

Life isn't that easily cut and dried.

I'm a numbers guy, too.  As we watch the mortality numbers grow over the next month or so,  I'm guessing the final tally won't be that far from the model that convinced our President to rightly declare a national emergency in the first place.

Did the model include death from other determining factors? I haven't researched that but I would assume they did not. Sadly the waters have been muddied with officials linking deaths with underlying conditions to the coronavirus. Thus the mortality numbers can't be trusted. it's widely debated they are doing this to increase the mortality rate to justify their so-called pandemic.

[Valkorado]

Thus the mortality numbers can't be trusted. it's widely debated they are doing this to increase the mortality rate to justify their so-called pandemic.

I rest my case.   I won't debate whether a declared pandemic is a pandemic.

[DarkSideR]

And we're being regulated by what's happening in NY city. Go figure. Common sense isn't apart of a politicians view that is more concerned about their next vote to stay in power. Quite a "fine Americans" mindset going on now.

Couldn't agree more.

[carolinarider09]

"I'm a numbers guy, too.  As we watch the mortality numbers grow over the next month or so,  I'm guessing the final tally won't be that far from the model that convinced our President to rightly declare a national emergency in the first place."

Regarding numbers, 

I have taken a few moments (again using my favorite search engine) to see what I could find about the number or deaths originally "predicted". 

I found articles from "Reason" (Don't know that website or group), Cato, and finally USA Today (all website are listed, shown below). 

Reason 3/31/2020  -  "2.2 Million American Deaths from Covid-19?"
Cato - March 2, 2020 - no numbers but 1.5% was the original projection of number of deaths.
USA Today April 9, 2020 -  "Senior White House adviser Anthony Fauci said Thursday the death toll from the coronavirus could be closer to 60,000 Americans, assuming full social distancing, rather than the previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 deaths."

I therefore disagree with the statement that the death rate will be near what was originally projected. 

References:

https://reason.com/2020/03/31/2-2-million-american-deaths-from-covid-19/] [url]https://reason.com/2020/03/31/2-2-million-american-deaths-from-covid-19/[/url]

https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading-arithmetic-covid-19-death-rates] [url]https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading-arithmetic-covid-19-death-rates[/url]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/09/coronavirus-deaths-u-s-could-closer-60-k-new-model-shows/5122467002/] [url]https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/09/coronavirus-deaths-u-s-could-closer-60-k-new-model-shows/5122467002/[/url]

[Willow]

...  the virus is piddly and thinking otherwise is media hype.  

I've noticed that any opposition to the epidemic being as extreme as the media presents is assessed as saying the virus isn't dangerous at all.  That's a strategy normally invoked by politically committed arguers (You decide which).

I draw the camps into those panicked and those driven to interpret the numbers and avoid panic.  The media certainly is given to fanning the panic flames and driving the herd.  I wish to rise above the calling of the sheep.

I do not hold the government totally responsible for some of the irresponsible actions taken.  The crisis is being largely politicized.  The government, especially during an election year, must act in keeping with perceived needs of an overwhelming majority or be replaced.

When presented with the projections of the "experts" my normal response is, "Hmmm.  Are these the same experts that predicted two million deaths on the first wave of COVID-19?"  

I was posting my reply when the board stopped me to say there had been another reply since I started.  I took the time to read.  It causes me to wonder whether my father was unfaithful during his time in the Carolinas.      

[Valkorado]

Since you're looking for things to disagree about,  would you rather argue about my belief that opening society is absolutely essential, or that I feel we should wait until the numbers are tallied before we consider them rigged and faked?

Take your pick.   I'm your Huckleberry.

[Willow]

Since you're looking for things to disagree about,  would you rather argue about my belief that opening society is absolutely essential, or that I feel we should wait until the numbers are tallied before we consider them rigged and faked?

Take your pick.   I'm your Huckleberry.

I'm not looking for things about which to disagree but if you need one I'll take the second, Huck.   

[Valkorado]

The crisis is being largely politicized.  The government, especially during an election year, must act in keeping with perceived needs of an overwhelming majority or be replaced.

Absolutely.   Like I said when this sh!t virus topic was beginning,  a virus isn't political,  people make it so.   If you want to discuss your superior courage,  label me as panicked, insult my intelligence by assuming I'm a mindless media zombie or infer that I run with brainwashed sheep you might want to consider taking the conversation up via PM,  or better yet drop by for a visit cause them thar words are almost fighting words.  

But I'm sure you didn't mean then that way...

[Willow]

The crisis is being largely politicized.  The government, especially during an election year, must act in keeping with perceived needs of an overwhelming majority or be replaced.

Absolutely.   Like I said when this sh!t virus topic was beginning,  a virus isn't political,  people make it so.   If you want to discuss your superior courage,  label me as panicked, insult my intelligence by assuming I'm a mindless media zombie or infer that I run with brainwashed sheep you might want consider taking the conversation up via PM,  or better yet drop by for a visit cause them thar words are almost fighting words.  

But I'm sure you didn't mean then that way...

Wow.  I didn't say any of that and I didn't mention your name.

Courage?  Not being panicked has nothing to do with courage.   If I believed the virus was as dangerous to me as does the media driven herd (surely not you) and chose to stand up to it that would take courage.  I simply don't believe it is the threat that it's being presented as.  It is ugly.  It is going to kill some people.  It simply does not justify putting 20 million people out of work and spending trillions of dollars that we don't have.  It's not courage.  It's just awareness unless I'm wrong then it's just foolhardiness.  I've not gotten accustomed to being wrong. 

Your definition of brainwashed and mine differ.  Brainwashing takes time and repetition.  If I yell, "Fire! Fire!" in a crowded theater and the panicked crowd runs for the doors they are not brainwashed or uncourageous.  They are simply fooled.

I don't believe in zombies.

[Valkorado]

Well it's good to know we agree,  then,  and I misinterpreted where you were pointing your sites.

I'm definitely not part of a "media driven herd", and I don't believe our President is either.  

I just heard President Trump saying he has lost "several" friends to COVID, one of whom was a "close" friend.  I'd imagine that may have had a bigger influence on him taking COVID seriously than did all the media stories combined.

I didn't define any words.  I don't believe in zombies either.  

[Patrick]

I'm a numbers and stats kinda guy too. The New Math though has 2+2 equaling 5. The times they are a changing.

I try to understand the mind set of those on the 'other side', but, most of the time I now just slowly back away. Its not worth trying to argue with them anymore.

[Valkorado]

I'm a numbers and stats kinda guy too. The New Math though has 2+2 equaling 5. The times they are a changing.

I try to understand the mind set of those on the 'other side', but, most of the time I now just slowly back away. Its not worth trying to argue with them anymore.

We gotta try.   Most share common ground.   Here's my "camp".

[scooperhsd]

I made my mind up a week or 2 ago that it was being overblown . I may not "sit down" and analyze the numbers, but I have a gift for high speed reading and high retention of the material covered. All the trends have been for less casualities than predicted.

Yes there are going to be deaths , and some people will get very sick (especially those in a high risk group). But, the flu kills more than COVID-19 EVERY YEAR, and we don't close the economy for the flu.

DJT's (the president's) biggest problem is that he doesn't often engage his brain before he starts speaking "off the cuff" - rather than doing the off-the-cuff stuff , he would get alot more credible responses if he simply kept his mouth shut if he doesn't know (and doesn't want to admit it), and take responsibility for what he DID say (that disinfectant comment was totally uncalled for).

AG Barr's comments that the US Constitution IS STILL IN EFFECT is exactly what some power-hungry politicians need thrown in their faces.

The American people are not totally stupid, but when arbitrary crap is happening - watch out.

[Valkorado]

Yes there are going to be deaths , and some people will get very sick (especially those in a high risk group). But, the flu kills more than COVID-19 EVERY YEAR, and we don't close the economy for the flu.

Not quite every year.  Some years the flu kills as many in the United States in a season as COVID has killed in a couple months. Thus far there have been 57,533 COVID deaths in the US since February 29. We curently toss on another 2,000 ish daily.  Give or take.

Oh yeah, "fake" nubers.

Of course, if we doubt the CDC's COVID numbers, we should also doubt their influenza numbers.  Right?

Here's more numbers for those of us who like numbers.

https://www.passporthealthusa.com/2019/08/how-bad-was-the-2018-2019-flu-season/

From the article (interesting article, too):

"The CDC estimated that between 37.4 million and 42.9 million people contracted the flu during the 2018-2019 season. Those cases led to between 531,000 and 647,000 hospitalization and 36,400-61,200 deaths.

These numbers may seem high, but when stacked against previous seasons reported deaths were at a decline. For example, during the 2017-2018 flu season the death toll was reported to be around 80,000. Comparatively, this past season’s toll was between 36,400 and 61,200".

The (bad) 2018-2019 flu season was actually two influenza virii. From the article:

"While the flu season typically starts in early fall and peaks in the winter months, the 2018-2019 influenza season lasted 21 weeks. That made this season the longest in 10 years, according to the CDC’s most recent Morbidity and Morality Weekly Report.

We began seeing flu activity starting in November of 2018. Flu activity then peaked again in mid-February with a second different strain that then faded below the baseline in April.

The flu vaccine started out being relatively effective. The shot proved helpful against the most common H1N1 strain of the virus. But, when a different strain, H3N2, popped up in February, it was as if we had a whole new flu season on our hands that scientists hadn’t anticipated. Richard Webby, a flu scientist on the World Health Organization’s influenza vaccine advisory board, stated that “it was quite an unusual season in that we almost had two seasons within the one.”

This is whereI get my numbers.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

From their FAQs:

What are the sources of data informing the dashboard?
The data sources include the World Health Organization, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, local media reports, local health departments, and the DXY, one of the world’s largest online communities for physicians, health care professionals, pharmacies and facilities.

Why does data here differ from data on other websites?
The website relies upon publicly available data from multiple sources that do not always agree. More frequent updates of the map often result in higher case numbers than may be available from other sources that are updated less frequently.

Soures that do not always agree. I like that!  Of course, I'm sure they are all lying though their teeth to confuse and befuddle us.  Ok, I'll give you China.
And I agree we should not shut down our economy for influenza or coronavirus.

[The emperor has no clothes]

My thoughts on current events;

I'm a numbers guys. I like stats, and figures. Why? Well, numbers don't lie. Numbers are a hard truth. 2+2=4 no matter what!

I started to take note when things were not adding up, and have since posted many times.. well numbers.

From my posts and comments I have found there are two camps of people out there.
- The first camp sees the numbers, but also sees that the numbers do not line up with what the media is portraying, and the extreme measures being taken.
- The second camp looks past the numbers. The values don't equate to what they are being told. They have a formed opinion that won't be swayed by truth, or fact.

Through this I have noticed that a hatred for Trump coincides with the second camp. Which is ironic because it's this camp that claims the first is a camp of conspiracy theorists.

During conversations with people in the second camp I have found it always ends the same way. When those in the second camp cannot gain traction they resort to childish name calling and/or insults.
 
What I can conclude from this is that hate truly blinds.

My thoughts on current events :

Many people wish to make this pandemic political. Many of those who do come from what you call “camp 1”. I have noticed many of them wish to blame others (liberals) for what is wrong in this country. I have also noticed with this camp they are more than willing to tie themselves up in knots defending the President from everything he says, regardless of how ridiculous it is.

[Jess from VA]

You know, many of us from that camp might be a bit more open minded and objective about things if he hadn't been under constant attack for every single thing he ever says or does (or thinks) since before day one.

[Valkorado]

With all due respect to Mr. Meat, I think both parties have politcized this crap to a maddening degree. As a science oriented observer, it sure ain't America's greatest moment.  

[scooperhsd]

With all due respect to Mr. Meat, I think both parties have politcized this crap to a maddening degree. As a science oriented observer, it sure ain't America's greatest moment.   

Well said.

[carolinarider09]

You know, many of us from that camp might be a bit more open minded and objective about things if he hadn't been under constant attack for every single thing he ever says or does (or thinks) since before day one.

Agreed. 

[Oss]

if one is inclined to look at my past posts I once said (maybe the Inzane post? ) I was not scared of
Covid19
Then all indications available were that I had it
Still not concerned but when told friend died, other friends died I became more concerned
When I could not catch my breath I got worried enough to get a chest xray
Regarding the two camps, when one cant get a test unless in the hospital does it matter which camp one is encamped upon?

Fortunately except for this nagging cough I believe I am recovered but still I wear the damn mask I got from a client (95 mask) when shopping for food or meeting a rare client in the office,

I do think the response was more than required and also less than required

Nobody is perfect

At least the POTUS is taking actions

Hope you all stay healthy

[Valkorado]

Will said Oss.

Wow, this has turned out to be a thread of brotherly love.