John Schmidt
Member
Posts: 15223
a/k/a Stuffy. '99 I/S Valk Roadsmith Trike
De Pere, WI (Green Bay)
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« on: October 26, 2020, 09:58:09 PM » |
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A recent Rasmussen poll stated that Trump will only receive something like 74% or 76% of the GOP votes on Nov. 3rd, I forget the exact figure but was one of those. That simply doesn't make sense since digging a bit further I found that he received 96% of the GOP vote in the primaries. I get a rather strong feeling that we may have a repeat of 2016 where Hillary was supposedly a shoe-in based on the polls. Hope I'm right, it would be difficult to watch a candidate take office after referring to "George" Trump in an interview. At times I feel a bit of compassion for the man because I know what's next for him should he win.  |
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Patrick
Member
Posts: 15433
VRCC 4474
Largo Florida
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 07:18:02 AM » |
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I think the great silent majority will once again come thru.
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Moonshot_1
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 07:24:51 AM » |
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I wrote about this in the last election cycle and I'll post the thoughts again.
I was pretty confident the last time that the polls were wrong and they were.
The reason they were wrong is the same this time around too.
For decades the polling has been pretty accurate. The reason is because the model used is based on established politics. Democrat, Republican and independents in the middle.
Trump makes the model obsolete. Trump isn't part of the establishment politic nor are his supporters. The pollsters simply have no way to account for this block of electorates in the model they have.
When you look at a Trump rally the crowd isn't a crowd of Republicans. It is a crowd of anti establishment political people. These folks are off the grid when it comes to the polling models.
The kicker is that Trump is on the Republican ticket. If Trump was an actual Republican with a political background as such, the polls would be right.
But Trump is the anti establishment guy. Not only does he get the Republican vote by running on the Republican ticket he gets the large block of anti establishment vote.
I'd say that adds about 15% to the mix. You won't see that until the final poll on election day.
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Mike Luken
Cherokee, Ia.
Former Iowa Patriot Guard Ride Captain
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scooperhsd
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 07:27:50 AM » |
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I think the great silent majority will once again come thru.
+1 . I can understand Conservative leaning people not taking part or flat out lying to pollsters based on recent history. |
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da prez
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 07:56:57 AM » |
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After Trump wins this election , will the son be next. I'll Trump your Trump With a Trump and follow with another Trump.  da prez |
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scooperhsd
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 08:10:17 AM » |
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A recent Rasmussen poll stated that Trump will only receive something like 74% or 76% of the GOP votes on Nov. 3rd, I forget the exact figure but was one of those. That simply doesn't make sense since digging a bit further I found that he received 96% of the GOP vote in the primaries. I get a rather strong feeling that we may have a repeat of 2016 where Hillary was supposedly a shoe-in based on the polls. Hope I'm right, it would be difficult to watch a candidate take office after referring to "George" Trump in an interview. At times I feel a bit of compassion for the man because I know what's next for him should he win. IF - by some miracle, Biden wins more electoral college votes than Trump - THEN - I do not expect Biden to serve a full term of 4 years. I do not pretend to know by what mechanism it happens by - Biden simply dies in office, or the dems try using the provisions of the 25th amendment somehow to ease Biden out / slip Harris in. In a way, what's happening with Biden is kind of well - it makes you feel sorry for him. He is being "used" by the Dems, either willingly or not so willingly. If Trump wins re-election - unless some health issue pops up, I expect him to finish his term. I do wish he would tone it down with social media and try to cooperate with the press - but the press needs to be more fair and respectful of him too. |
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Jess from VA
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 08:27:48 AM » |
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If the last four (or 12) years show anything, they show you just cannot believe media about almost anything at all, and that includes polls.
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scooperhsd
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 08:31:00 AM » |
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If the last four (or 12) years show anything, they show you just cannot believe media about almost anything at all, and that includes polls.
Especially Polls. |
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MAD6Gun
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 12:32:18 PM » |
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A recent Rasmussen poll stated that Trump will only receive something like 74% or 76% of the GOP votes on Nov. 3rd, I forget the exact figure but was one of those. That simply doesn't make sense since digging a bit further I found that he received 96% of the GOP vote in the primaries. I get a rather strong feeling that we may have a repeat of 2016 where Hillary was supposedly a shoe-in based on the polls. Hope I'm right, it would be difficult to watch a candidate take office after referring to "George" Trump in an interview. At times I feel a bit of compassion for the man because I know what's next for him should he win. If Trump wins re-election - unless some health issue pops up, I expect him to finish his term. I do wish he would tone it down with social media and try to cooperate with the press - but the press needs to be more fair and respectful of him too. To be fair the main stream media has NEVER been fair to president Trump since he announced he was running except possible Fox and a couple of others. CNN, MSNBC,NY Times...Ect,ect,ect are still butt hurt that Hillary lost. |
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Crackerborn
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 07:04:37 AM » |
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I do not expect Biden to serve a full term of 4 years. I do not pretend to know by what mechanism it happens by - Biden simply dies in office, or the dems try using the provisions of the 25th amendment somehow to ease Biden out / slip Harris in.
In a way, what's happening with Biden is kind of well - it makes you feel sorry for him. He is being "used" by the Dems, either willingly or not so willingly.
It is already in the works. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/pelosi-we-re-going-be-talking-about-25th-amendment-n1242629 |
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Life is about the ride, not the destination. 97 Valkyrie Tour 99 Valkyrie Interstate  |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 07:58:31 AM » |
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I wrote about this in the last election cycle and I'll post the thoughts again.
I was pretty confident the last time that the polls were wrong and they were.
The reason they were wrong is the same this time around too.
For decades the polling has been pretty accurate. The reason is because the model used is based on established politics. Democrat, Republican and independents in the middle.
Trump makes the model obsolete. Trump isn't part of the establishment politic nor are his supporters. The pollsters simply have no way to account for this block of electorates in the model they have.
When you look at a Trump rally the crowd isn't a crowd of Republicans. It is a crowd of anti establishment political people. These folks are off the grid when it comes to the polling models.
The kicker is that Trump is on the Republican ticket. If Trump was an actual Republican with a political background as such, the polls would be right.
But Trump is the anti establishment guy. Not only does he get the Republican vote by running on the Republican ticket he gets the large block of anti establishment vote.
I'd say that adds about 15% to the mix. You won't see that until the final poll on election day.
The 2016 polls weren't too far off. There were a few last minute developments with Comey that had some effect. The polls had Clinton nationally over Trump by 3%. The actual vote was her over by 2%. Where these predictions came up short was by a sliver Electorally in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Is it your prediction that Trump voters are being under polled by 15%, and that he will win the election by 7% nationally ? (The most recent national polls have him down by 8%) |
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Robert
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 10:39:21 AM » |
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Texas Ballot Chaser Reveals 'Massive' Voter Fraud To Elect Biden Texas ‘Ballot Chaser’ Pressures Voter to Change Vote from Cornyn to Hegar: ‘That’s My Job’ … ‘I Can Honestly Say I'm Bringing at Least 7,000 Votes to The Polls’ … Said Garza Gave Her $2,500 Gift Budget https://www.projectveritas.com/news/texas-ballot-chaser-pressures-voter-to-change-vote-from-cornyn-to-hegar/https://twitter.com/i/status/1321481854751526915Raquel Rodriguez: “I can honestly say I'm bringing at least at least 7,000 votes to the polls.” Journalist: “Seven thousand—and that's for San Antonio for this area too. It's a lot.” Rodriguez: “That's a lot. It's a lot, period. Just so you know--have an idea--so this is what I do.” |
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« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 10:41:08 AM by Robert »
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“Some people see things that are and ask, Why? Some people dream of things that never were and ask, Why not? Some people have to go to work and don’t have time for all that.”
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