Cascade Iatrogenic Error...

Cascade Iatrogenic Error...

I learned a new phrase/word that morning... Yeah I know, I could easily have just copied and pasted a definition here and been done with it, but... Aw come on now, surely you know me better than that, right? I'm laying over again, and the urge to write something seems to have taken an unshakeable grip on my aspiration muscle... Then, this appeared in my morning reading as if it were placed there by karma or something leading me onward...

That article which had captivated my interest dealt with various types of 'errors' common in decision-making. Actually, that entire piece was most stimulating, thought-provoking, and well worth the time spent digesting it all. Then, there was that curious phrase...

Something like that simply must be more closely examined, of course, if for no other reason than it just appears likely to be something pithy to be skillfully employed at a cocktail party or tire-kicking session to gain attention. You know, like when we're trying desperately to appear thoughtful, insightful, intellectual, and stuff... (Feel free to use it yourself, by the way, if you ever find yourself wanting to impress anyone or in need of a conversation booster… or think it might be helpful in some other way…)

As I read that article, and especially when I arrived at #7 on the author’s list of errors (the one in this post’s title), I for some reason happened to recall watching an interview on TV with then President Obama. He was asked about his views on the very timely then as now issue of gun violence at schools, and his response was most revealing to this curious student of ‘opinions on vexing issues’… More importantly, what we should do about them. But first…

It had progressed from cool, to quite pleasant, to warm, to… ‘I need to get rid of this jacket soon before I start to melt’! As if by some invisible hand of fate, the next pull-off opportunity happened to be within sight of a motel… one with my preferred outside entrance to rooms arrangement… I pulled in… I got situated inside my new ‘home’ and sat down in front of the A/C vents, where I then frantically spun the dial to the ‘Artic Cyclone’ setting. Ahhhhh…

An uneventful evening followed, then a most restful quiet night’s sleep swept away all my aches, pains, vexations, and worries… This was nice… Funny, I’d been thinking seriously about renting a cabin or house anyway to spend some time before my next all-to-soon visit to Montgomery.

I wasn’t really in need right then of any serious distance riding or even anything challenging in terms of curvatude. What I really wanted more than anything was to just be alone for a while, to think uninterrupted, maybe to write something worth documenting (at least to this habitual writer-wannabe), and to loaf and veg… The availability of wherewithal to burn bacon might be a desirable option, but it wasn’t absolutely essential. Had I perhaps found such a place…?

Turning in earlier that usual has at least one almost automatic subsequent outcome… I awaken even earlier following the usual amount of slumber. The first time I ventured outside for a looksee the next morning, it was blacker than a mother-in-law’s heart. Yeah, I expected that… That second time, however, things were quite different. The sky in the east was beginning its daily transition from black, to gray, to pastel blue. The few clouds near the horizon had that usual but rather lovely shade of rust color, and the high-flying plane overhead was leaving a pink vapor trail behind. “Hmmm, has the Makin’s of a good one,” I’d thought to myself… “Wonder if we should go or stay…?”

There was a Cracker Barrel Restaurant & Country Store about two hundred yards away, a convenience store/gas station less one hundred yards away, both with no roads to cross… Ya know, this place definitely has some potential… The only remaining unresolved issue was do they offer ‘weekly rates’ here and are those enticing enough…? It was already pretty definite I would stay at least one more night, though, but… longer…?

“Better ponder on that some more, sport,” I pleaded with myself… Also a good idea to check the longer-term weather forecast… not that that would do any good… But we’d better get at least some vague idea of what we might encounter when time would be up here… Would it most likely rain or not…? YES!!! Was what the forecasters were all saying… as helpful as ever!

Long story a bit shorter… I did pull the trigger on staying a full week. I know, I know… But I just had a few personal things overdue to be taken care of like a haircut, trimming toenails, maybe doing laundry… important stuff like that… Nothing that would justify a long lay-over, of course, but all I needed to reinforce a decision to lollygag and kill some time… ever get like that yourself?

So, back to Barry’s response… “Every time I hear of some kid or children being killed in that way; it saddens me profoundly. I simply cannot do nothing about it… I have to take action!” Not a bad answer and a sincere one, I’m sure, plus it’s reflective of a strong impulse shared by many if not most of us. The problem lies in determining what action we should take… Any action? Effective action? Something that will actually produce the desired result…? Yes to all, but not all will necessarily accomplish the last item…

Cascade Iatrogenic Error... The author of that article I referenced at the beginning of this thread described those as “errors (that) are compound errors. In researcher-speak, cases of cascade iatrogenesis are those in which erroneous action allows forces to interact that were erroneously analyzed, creating more problems than it solves, creating an environment in which original issues morph into larger, and qualitatively different, often irreversible outcomes."

I ask myself what it is that we’re really trying to accomplish: Is it to stop gun violence? Of course. Really, or is it to stop the guns and the violence? Attempting the former doesn’t guarantee accomplishing the latter. Sure, if there were no guns at all, then there could be no gun violence. Would that mean less total violence, then? However, is that even possible?

Timothy McVey certainly taught us that a lawful ban on bombs was no guarantee that improvised bombs would not produce catastrophes like the one in Oklahoma City. Anyone else remember that the ‘shooters’ at Columbine High School also had numerous pipe bombs with them? Has making certain drugs illegal stopped their use and undesirable impact upon our society? Has it even reduced their availability?

Supply-side interdiction is no effective, long-term remedy… I suppose it is possible that it could be marginally helpful to some degree, but… As long as there is ‘demand’, there will always be ‘supply’ if a profit can be made. Even if the supply were to completely dry-up, those with the demand would simply seek alternatives… No guns? OK, let’s make a bomb… or use a machete, or… grab a bookend… something…

Putting a significant dent in the violence will not be nearly as easy as ‘gun-control legislation’. That’s simply low-hanging fruit to be plucked by politicians and ‘activists’ to run with for their own aims. It may also be ‘useful’ for those who ‘must act’ but see no other readily available solution. Yeah, that’s the ticket, an easy, sensible fix… More gun control laws and we can put this issue to rest!

Actually solving the problem, I believe, will require effective action at the ‘aberrant behavior intervention, people fixing’ level. A most difficult, daunting, nearly impossible task, and that, at least to this sad observer, is the primary reason so many ‘caring individuals’ choose to skip right over that aspect of this tragic conundrum entirely…

DDT