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The emperor has no clothes
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« on: October 17, 2016, 06:33:45 PM » |
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I try to follow politics as much as I can. And think I am above average in knowledge of such. I'm sure that's debatable among many. But I wanted to throw this out there with the hopes that it won't devolve into ugliness. A week before the 2012 election me and a coworker were discussing our different opinions. I made the prediction that Obama would get 326 electoral votes. I was close. I am going to make my prediction here in public 3 weeks out. I say Clinton 348. If you would care to throw out your predictions I'd be interested. There is no prize, but bragging rights. I'm also predicting the Cowboys are going to the NFC Championship Game.  Civility is a virtue. |
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Bighead
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 07:15:15 PM » |
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Won't make any predictions but hope you are dead wrong and if you are correct you won't be bragging ( or shouldn't be ) after that thing destroys what's left of your freedoms.
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1997 Bumble Bee
1999 Interstate (sold)
2016 Wing
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art
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Posts: 2737
Grants Pass,Or
Grants Pass,Or
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 07:25:11 PM » |
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Won't make any predictions but hope you are dead wrong and if you are correct you won't be bragging ( or shouldn't be ) after that thing destroys what's left of your freedoms.
THAT THING!  Love it. |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 07:32:06 PM » |
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Guys, there is no shame in making a prediction.  I would never think about reminding you of your wrongness down the road. Really, I don't mean this to be a crap storm. Just some friendly predictions. |
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John Schmidt
Member
Posts: 15325
a/k/a Stuffy. '99 I/S Valk Roadsmith Trike
De Pere, WI (Green Bay)
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 07:50:27 PM » |
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If the media would start talking about Hillary's lackluster and questionable background from years past as much as they are Trumps, who knows what would happen. So far, even with all his faults he can't hold a candle to what she's done and gotten away with in the last 20 years or more. Just because she's never been prosecuted by no stretch means she's not guilty. Teflon John Gotti is a piker in comparison to her. As long as she has the media on her side as Obama did...and still does, she'll be our next dufus to occupy the white house. I won't make a prediction on something that I feel had already been settled before campaigning ever began. Really troubling.  |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 07:53:02 PM » |
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Hmmm... 0 for 3. I guess I will come closest by default.  |
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baldo
Member
Posts: 6961
Youbetcha
Cape Cod, MA
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 08:24:37 PM » |
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Just because she's never been prosecuted by no stretch means she's not guilty.
I think I've heard this before....  |
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baldo
Member
Posts: 6961
Youbetcha
Cape Cod, MA
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 08:27:44 PM » |
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Hmmm... 0 for 3. I guess I will come closest by default. I'll play..... I say 437.....  |
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Oss
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Posts: 12764
The lower Hudson Valley
Ossining NY Chapter Rep VRCCDS0141
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 08:32:03 PM » |
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Assuming Hillary does not have a stroke between now and then.........
Trump carries Arkansas and wins by the margin of votes of that state
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If you don't know where your going any road will take you there
George Harrison
When you come to the fork in the road, take it
Yogi Berra (Don't send it to me C.O.D.)
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DK
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2016, 08:36:47 PM » |
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Machinery has a mysterious soul and a mind of its own.
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Valkorado
Member
Posts: 10514
VRCC DS 0242
Gunnison, Colorado (7,703') Here there be twisties.
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2016, 08:44:41 PM » |
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I wasn't going to take the bait, but... Cowboys lose 24-10. |
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« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 08:55:37 PM by Valkorado »
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Have you ever noticed when you're feeling really good, there's always a pigeon that'll come sh!t on your hood? - John Prine 97 Tourer "Silver Bullet" 01 Interstate "Ruby"  |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2016, 09:00:55 PM » |
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Hmmm... 0 for 3. I guess I will come closest by default. I'll play..... I say 437..... ooh... That's almost Goldwater territory. Bold pick Baldo.  |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2016, 09:31:36 PM » |
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Assuming Hillary does not have a stroke between now and then.........
Trump carries Arkansas and wins by the margin of votes of that state
So 276 Trump for my rabbit loving friend. |
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Robert
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2016, 04:49:34 AM » |
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Indeed the election may be rigged.
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“Some people see things that are and ask, Why? Some people dream of things that never were and ask, Why not? Some people have to go to work and don’t have time for all that.”
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2016, 05:20:59 AM » |
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Indeed the election may be rigged.
Thats your prediction ? |
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Rams
Member
Posts: 16684
So many colors to choose from yet so few stand out
Covington, TN
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2016, 05:42:38 AM » |
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Personally, I'm embarrassed by both candidates.
I happen to think both VP candidates are better choices. Although I'd favor Pence over the other guy.
Stocking up on ammo seems to be a good idea.
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VRCC# 29981
Learning the majority of life's lessons the hard way.
Every trip is an adventure, enjoy it while it lasts.
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2016, 05:51:53 AM » |
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Personally, I'm embarrassed by both candidates.
I happen to think both VP candidates are better choices. Although I'd favor Pence over the other guy.
Stocking up on ammo seems to be a good idea.
Don't be a wimp Ron. We've had ad nauseum amount of posts describing how we don't like either one. What's your prediction ? |
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Rams
Member
Posts: 16684
So many colors to choose from yet so few stand out
Covington, TN
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2016, 05:55:28 AM » |
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Personally, I'm embarrassed by both candidates.
I happen to think both VP candidates are better choices. Although I'd favor Pence over the other guy.
Stocking up on ammo seems to be a good idea.
Don't be a wimp Ron. We've had ad nauseum amount of posts describing how we don't like either one. What's your prediction ? Humiliation for the nation as a whole. |
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VRCC# 29981
Learning the majority of life's lessons the hard way.
Every trip is an adventure, enjoy it while it lasts.
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 06:14:38 AM » |
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Personally, I'm embarrassed by both candidates.
I happen to think both VP candidates are better choices. Although I'd favor Pence over the other guy.
Stocking up on ammo seems to be a good idea.
Don't be a wimp Ron. We've had ad nauseum amount of posts describing how we don't like either one. What's your prediction ? Humiliation for the nation as a whole. |
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Wizzard
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Posts: 4043
Bald River Falls
Valparaiso IN
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 06:34:42 AM » |
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Personally, I'm embarrassed by both candidates.
I happen to think both VP candidates are better choices. Although I'd favor Pence over the other guy.
Stocking up on ammo seems to be a good idea.
Don't be a wimp Ron. We've had ad nauseum amount of posts describing how we don't like either one. What's your prediction ? Humiliation for the nation as a whole. I think he meant to say "humiliation of the nation as a hole"  |
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 VRCC # 24157 |
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Moonshot_1
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 06:58:51 AM » |
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Trump with 348.
Trump will win the election by historical margins.
None of the current polling can show this.
The polling models are based on the 2 party system.
The model has some variables as to percentages.
Let's give the democrats the edge.
So we would have a model of
Democrats 45%
Republicans 43%
3rd party 2%
Independents 10%
The split of the independents would determine the election.
Been that way for well, ever.
Let's say that the independents split 5% Dem, 4% Rep, 1% 3rd party
Clinton would be at 50%
Trump at 47%
3rd party 3%
So, how does Trump win?
Well when I take the basic model and put it up against a Clinton Rally, it makes sense.
I see the democrat base supporting her. I see her campaign having issues with filling their venues so the enthusiasm isn't really there except for her base.
When I put this up against a Trump rally, it doesn't make sense. At the polling % he is getting I would expect to see a similar campaign rally situation.
But what we see is the Trump campaign filling and over filling huge venues with extremely enthusiastic supporters?
We know the Republican side of the model are not enthusiastic about Mr. Trump. They support him but I don't see them being at Trump rallies and being enthusiastic.
So where are they coming from?
Over the last few decades the voter turn out for Presidential elections have hit a high of only 62%.
Usually it is under 60%. Around 57%
But let's call it 60% for our purpose here.
This means that 40% of the electorate (eligible voters) do not vote.
Let's say 10% don't because of things like medical emergencies, death in family, car breaks down etc.
That leaves 30% not voting. I believe that they don't vote because they are disenchanted with the political system. They see the Democrats and Republicans as 2 sides of the same coin and it just doesn't matter.
This time, from their perspective, it does matter. Trump is different. He presents a decidedly different political path from the establishment politics.
When you add this to the equation, the dynamics of the Trump rallies make sense. This is where the enthusiasm is coming from. Again, the enthusiasm isn't coming from the establishment Republican side of things.
In thinking of this I would look at a model that would be like the Bush, Clinton, Perot model except that Trump would be represented by the merging of the Bush and Perot campaigns.
Trump is running like a Republican and a popular 3rd party candidate rolled into one.
The polls can't account for that.
Trump wins. Landslide.
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« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 07:00:53 AM by Moonshot_1 »
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Mike Luken
Cherokee, Ia.
Former Iowa Patriot Guard Ride Captain
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Flat6Valk
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 07:15:22 AM » |
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there is no way clinton wins. she is running scared. I am not sure why you like her. the bottom line is she would let you die if she had a choice of that or something easier to do. and she would lie about it..
I respect differences of opinion, but this lady is bad news. very bad.
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RIDE SAFE-RIDE OFTEN........GO BUCKEYES!!!
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2016, 07:46:36 AM » |
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Early voting opened Monday in GA. Some polling stations reported 4 hour waits. No, not due to faulty equipment. Just the amount of people lining up.
What does that mean? WTFKnows.
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2016, 07:59:48 AM » |
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there is no way clinton wins. she is running scared. I am not sure why you like her. the bottom line is she would let you die if she had a choice of that or something easier to do. and she would lie about it..
I respect differences of opinion, but this lady is bad news. very bad.
Greg, I'm not sure if you are directing your question at me. But just to be clear I'm not liking her. I'm just predicting she is going to win. |
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Rams
Member
Posts: 16684
So many colors to choose from yet so few stand out
Covington, TN
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2016, 09:02:48 AM » |
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there is no way clinton wins. she is running scared. I am not sure why you like her. the bottom line is she would let you die if she had a choice of that or something easier to do. and she would lie about it..
I respect differences of opinion, but this lady is bad news. very bad.
Greg, I'm not sure if you are directing your question at me. But just to be clear I'm not liking her. I'm just predicting she is going to win. And I'm hoping the polls go even higher for Clinton causing less enthusiastic Clinton supporters or those who are disenchanted to stay home that day. Hillary is concerned about that happening. If the polls are correct (and I think it is questionable), Clinton should win by a landslide. |
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VRCC# 29981
Learning the majority of life's lessons the hard way.
Every trip is an adventure, enjoy it while it lasts.
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Serk
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« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2016, 09:33:31 AM » |
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I predict that we've already lost our republic, we just haven't all realized it yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgxZr6LLS34 |
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Never ask a geek 'Why?',just nod your head and slowly back away...  IBA# 22107 VRCC# 7976 VRCCDS# 226 1998 Valkyrie Standard 2008 Gold Wing Taxation is theft. μολὼν λαβέ |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2016, 09:36:48 AM » |
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Rumor has it even the Republic of Texas is in play this time.  |
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Serk
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« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2016, 09:42:42 AM » |
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Rumor has it even the Republic of Texas is in play this time. You see problems, I see opportunities and solutions...  |
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Never ask a geek 'Why?',just nod your head and slowly back away... IBA# 22107 VRCC# 7976 VRCCDS# 226 1998 Valkyrie Standard 2008 Gold Wing Taxation is theft. μολὼν λαβέ |
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baldo
Member
Posts: 6961
Youbetcha
Cape Cod, MA
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« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2016, 09:50:23 AM » |
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Rumor has it even the Republic of Texas is in play this time. You see problems, I see opportunities and solutions... Lol.... |
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Pete
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« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2016, 10:34:07 AM » |
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I think most of you are all GUESSING not predicting.
I really do not have a clue, prediction or guess. But I suspect it depends on whether the so called silent majority votes in mass or not.
If they vote then Trump if not Hillary, and it does not matter by how many votes.
If they vote they will negate the election fraud planned by dem supporters.
As for the ballgame, I have no dogs in that fight.
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Moonshot_1
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« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2016, 11:05:02 AM » |
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Early voting opened Monday in GA. Some polling stations reported 4 hour waits. No, not due to faulty equipment. Just the amount of people lining up.
What does that mean? WTFKnows.
I cannot imagine that a Candidate that has issues filling a modest rally venue with her supporters would have her supporters waiting 4 hours in a line to vote for her. On the flip side I can imagine people waiting in line for 4 hours to vote for a Candidate that typically has supporters standing outside a large rally venue because the large venue is already filled to capacity. That is far more logical. |
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Mike Luken
Cherokee, Ia.
Former Iowa Patriot Guard Ride Captain
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« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2016, 11:36:20 AM » |
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Early voting opened Monday in GA. Some polling stations reported 4 hour waits. No, not due to faulty equipment. Just the amount of people lining up.
What does that mean? WTFKnows.
I cannot imagine that a Candidate that has issues filling a modest rally venue with her supporters would have her supporters waiting 4 hours in a line to vote for her. On the flip side I can imagine people waiting in line for 4 hours to vote for a Candidate that typically has supporters standing outside a large rally venue because the large venue is already filled to capacity. That is far more logical. Just voted. 2.30pm Tues Oct 18th. About 25 people in line before me and it stayed pretty constant whilst I was waiting. Upon leaving the polling station the line had grown to about 50 people. |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2016, 11:42:53 AM » |
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I think early voting is probably a good idea. I'm all for anything that includes more people being a part of our system. But I've never done it. I like going down to the polling station on the first Tuesday of November. No good reason for it, just seems more traditional I suppose.
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Skinhead
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Posts: 8743
J. A. B. O. A.
Troy, MI
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« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2016, 02:45:50 PM » |
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I'm also predicting the Cowboys are going to the NFC Championship Game. Civility is a virtue. Really? They got their tickets already? |
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 Troy, MI |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #34 on: October 18, 2016, 02:48:48 PM » |
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I'm also predicting the Cowboys are going to the NFC Championship Game. Civility is a virtue. Really? They got their tickets already? |
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