Valkorado
Member
Posts: 10514
VRCC DS 0242
Gunnison, Colorado (7,703') Here there be twisties.
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« on: November 10, 2016, 04:11:24 PM » |
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A much better explanation than any of the pundits have given, and worth the read.
One of the most amazing things about Donald Trump’s historic victory was how badly almost everyone in media and politics misread the country.
Time and again in the months before the election, the establishment suggested I was either insincere or insane in predicting a Trump victory.
Our differences reflected two very different understandings of reality.
The establishment’s self-reassuring assumption was that the American electorate was the same as it was in 2008 and 2012, only more so. This led them to believe that no Republican could win the presidency without doing dramatically better than Mitt Romney among the groups Romney lost badly--Latinos, African Americans, and women.
They further assumed that Donald Trump could not possibly do better among these groups than Mitt Romney, because in their view, Romney was a pleasant, appealing candidate, and Trump was alienating and offensive.
They assumed that turnout among these demographics would be high. And they assumed turnout among white males would be low. (After all, their moment in history had passed.)
The lack of understanding and imagination became self-reinforcing. These assumptions were used to weight polls, producing results that appeared to prove the conclusions true.
The political-media establishment then set about talking to itself, and discovered that apparently everyone it knew was anti-Trump. This explains why Hillary Clinton and her team thought attacking his supporters was a good strategy. They really did see Trump voters as a fringe minority.
All of this led almost every voice in politics and the media to believe Trump would suffer a historic defeat Tuesday night.
In the end, their assumptions proved a house of cards. It turned out that demographics weren’t destiny after all. Leadership was destiny.
If they had not been so insulated from the rest of the country, they might have seen this: the vast majority of Americans found them deplorable. This is the reality the establishment refused to see.
As Pat Caddell reported in his essential essay on “the uprising of the American people,” Donald Trump’s closing argument was a winning one. According to Caddell’s research, Americans believe the following by overwhelming margins.
1. The power of ordinary people to control our country is getting weaker every day, as political leaders on both sides, fight to protect their own power and privilege, at the expense of the nation’s well-being. We need to restore what we really believe in – real democracy by the people and real free-enterprise. AGREE = 87%; DISAGREE = 10%
2. The country is run by an alliance of incumbent politicians, media pundits, lobbyists and other powerful money interests for their own gain at the expense of the American people. AGREE = 87%; DISAGREE = 10%
3. Most politicians really care about people like me. AGREE = 25%; DISAGREE = 69%
4. Powerful interests from Wall Street banks to corporations, unions and political interest groups have used campaign and lobbying money to rig the system for them. They are looting the national treasury of billions of dollars at the expense of every man, woman and child. AGREE = 81%; DISAGREE = 13%
5. The U.S. has a two-track economy where most Americans struggle every day, where good jobs are hard to find, where huge corporations get all the rewards. We need fundamental changes to fix the inequity in our economic system. AGREE = 81%; DISAGREE = 15%
6. Political leaders are more interested in protecting their power and privilege than doing what is right for the American people. AGREE = 86%; DISAGREE = 11%
7. The two main political parties are too beholden to special and corporate interest to create any meaningful change. AGREE = 76%; DISAGREE = 19%
8. The real struggle for America is not between Democrats and Republicans but between mainstream American and the ruling political elites. AGREE = 67%; DISAGREE = 24%
These numbers describe a reality the establishment is psychologically incapable of understanding. So they did not realize that the country--and the electorate--had changed dramatically, in ways that had nothing to do with demographics.
On Tuesday, Americans’ version of reality defeated the establishment’s version--in the form of President-elect Donald Trump.
Your Friend,
Newt
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« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 04:16:30 PM by Valkorado »
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Have you ever noticed when you're feeling really good, there's always a pigeon that'll come sh!t on your hood? - John Prine 97 Tourer "Silver Bullet" 01 Interstate "Ruby"  |
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sleepngbear
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2016, 04:25:04 PM » |
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Newt has always struck me as being among the more perceptive of politicians, ever since his Contract With America when he was the House Speaker. Unfortunately he comes across as the curmudgeonly old fart career politician that rubs a lot of people the wrong way, but I always thought his observations about most things were spot on. This one is right up there.
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2016, 05:06:10 PM » |
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I think it might be even simpler. She got hardly anyone to vote for her. They mostly voted against Trump. It turns out this isn't a winning strategy. I think the turnout of total voters bears this out. People who might have been inclined to her politics just couldn't get excited about her and stayed home. It appears it's not enough to show how bad the other guy is. You've got to show that there is a reason to vote for you. She couldn't or didn't do it. That and they managed to keep Trump off the Tweeter the last couple weeks.  |
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Robert
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2016, 05:17:42 PM » |
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Could this be the same spirit and strength that Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto referenced when he said
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve
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“Some people see things that are and ask, Why? Some people dream of things that never were and ask, Why not? Some people have to go to work and don’t have time for all that.”
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Jersey mike
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2016, 05:18:20 PM » |
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Newt is like an encyclopedia, he knows almost everything there is to know about politics and The Constitution and boy could he debate and argue a position.
I would like to see him get a position in Trump's cabinet but I wish he was a few years younger.
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Serk
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« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2016, 05:28:14 PM » |
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I find it kinda funny that one of the few talking heads that predicted what happened was Michael Moore...
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Never ask a geek 'Why?',just nod your head and slowly back away...  IBA# 22107 VRCC# 7976 VRCCDS# 226 1998 Valkyrie Standard 2008 Gold Wing Taxation is theft. μολὼν λαβέ |
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Skinhead
Member
Posts: 8743
J. A. B. O. A.
Troy, MI
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2016, 07:34:30 AM » |
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 Troy, MI |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2016, 07:37:16 AM » |
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Sorry, I'll try to keep you from getting slimed in the future. |
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scooperhsd
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2016, 08:27:08 AM » |
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One of the things that should be taken from this election (not saying it will be) is that it is not enough to negatively campaign against your opponent - you have to convince people of why they should vote FOR you as well, not just vote against your opponent.
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big d
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2016, 08:48:27 AM » |
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In part meathead might be accurate. I can't believe I was able to write that. But the most important reason people voted trump was they believed the country was on the wrong path due to the current potus and Hillary was going to continue with the same line of policies. The reason no one realized the ground swell for trump was the pundits and biased media made it clear that any one with a different view would be attacked.
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2016, 09:26:21 AM » |
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In part meathead might be accurate. I can't believe I was able to write that. But the most important reason people voted trump was they believed the country was on the wrong path due to the current potus and Hillary was going to continue with the same line of policies. The reason no one realized the ground swell for trump was the pundits and biased media made it clear that any one with a different view would be attacked.
Geez, I knew I was in the minority around here. But I didn't realize there was this much disdain for me.  |
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Pete
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2016, 10:03:00 AM » |
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It was a simple choice both were not the best candidate. So the american voter picked the least objectionable from their view point.
I understand and have no objection to that line of reasoning as it shows thought, logic and intelligence.
I am concerned that approx 50% (those that voted for Hillary) were not able to figure that out. That does not bode well for the future.
The republicans have chance to prove they are worthy of the voters trust, I sure hope they do not screw it up again.
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old2soon
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2016, 10:21:59 AM » |
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I believe Pat Paulson said-none of the above. This particular time around I'm thinking it was-The lesser of the 2 perceived evils. While I M H O neither one is ANYWHERE Near perfect hrc was MUCH further away. Heard this before but I will state it again-had the d n c run ANYBODY but hrc we WOULD have had another d for potus. But that's Like MY opinion.  RIDE SAFE. |
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Today is the tommorow you worried about yesterday. If at first you don't succeed screw it-save it for nite check. 1964 1968 U S Navy. Two cruises off Nam.
VRCCDS0240 2012 GL1800 Gold Wing Motor Trike conversion
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ridingron
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2016, 11:42:44 AM » |
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I didn't particularly care for either candidate. I voted for Trump as the overall less objectionable
candidate. I think many voter did the same. One of the guys at work was talking against early voting. "What if something comes out after you vote. You can't change your vote." My response was I couldn't imagine anything that would make me vote for the Dem. candidate.
I only hope that before I die, I can vote FOR a Presidential candidate.
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Moonshot_1
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2016, 01:26:12 PM » |
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I did vote for Trump because I like the guy for the job.
I wanted to see a person with no roots in the political system get in there and cause a ruckus.
Get things done.
You can point to a number of his failures in the past but I was looking at his successes.
I could see that he had the capacity to be an executive in the business world and that is a perspective we need right now. The National debt isn't getting any smaller. Can't say Trump will be successful in that regard but I do know that any establishment politician will not and can not be.
He survived the incredible and vicious onslaught of the extremely biased media. The spin they presented Mr. Trump to the public was tornadic. He stood his ground and even pushed back and I gave him great credit for that. Sure, at times his conduct was atrocious, but at worse he deserve a slap in the face and kick in the groin on those occasions.
Totally dismiss the racist and bigot claims. What BS.
So, in the end, I didn't vote against Hillary. I voted for Trump.
She did make it really, really easy though.
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Mike Luken
Cherokee, Ia.
Former Iowa Patriot Guard Ride Captain
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Rams
Member
Posts: 16684
So many colors to choose from yet so few stand out
Covington, TN
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2016, 05:27:18 PM » |
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Well, I admit voting against Hillary. She's an evil witch IMO.
I also thought there were better Republican and Democrat Candidates but, Hillary was the chosen one from the start. See DNC emails for evidence of that. But, those better candidates did not survive the process.
Hillary made the same mistake I made, she believe the polls. Trump did something amazing, he got elected without his own party's support while taking hits from Hillary, the media, women's groups, The LBGTXYZ community and it seems like the rest of the world.
Kudos to Trump. I didn't vote for him, I voted against Hillary but, I do hope he does well. If nothing else, SCOTUS and the Constitution have been preserved. The changes Hillary wanted to make would have ended the America we know.
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VRCC# 29981
Learning the majority of life's lessons the hard way.
Every trip is an adventure, enjoy it while it lasts.
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Valkorado
Member
Posts: 10514
VRCC DS 0242
Gunnison, Colorado (7,703') Here there be twisties.
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2016, 05:47:17 PM » |
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I voted for a Constitutional America, therefore against Hillary Clinton. I would have voted for any of the other Republican Primary candidates had they risen to the top -- which they didn't. The primary candidates who said Trump couldn't possibly win, didn't win.
Enough said.
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Have you ever noticed when you're feeling really good, there's always a pigeon that'll come sh!t on your hood? - John Prine 97 Tourer "Silver Bullet" 01 Interstate "Ruby" |
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Jersey mike
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« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2016, 07:31:37 PM » |
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In part meathead might be accurate. I can't believe I was able to write that. But the most important reason people voted trump was they believed the country was on the wrong path due to the current potus and Hillary was going to continue with the same line of policies. The reason no one realized the ground swell for trump was the pundits and biased media made it clear that any one with a different view would be attacked.
Geez, I knew I was in the minority around here. But I didn't realize there was this much disdain for me. No distant from me, you present your point of view in a reasonable fashion usually in a diplomatic manner. Have we disagreed, yes but what good is presenting an opinion for discussion without 2 sides to voice their thoughts and concerns. There is always room for civil debate and discussion. And that's the rest of the story.........Peace. |
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Serk
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2016, 07:57:24 PM » |
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Wow... Left wing liberal Briton gets it... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKsVery well worth a watch... (VERY Salty language warning!) |
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Never ask a geek 'Why?',just nod your head and slowly back away... IBA# 22107 VRCC# 7976 VRCCDS# 226 1998 Valkyrie Standard 2008 Gold Wing Taxation is theft. μολὼν λαβέ |
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ridingron
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« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2016, 09:21:31 PM » |
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Wonder what his audience numbers are in the States. Not high enough. But then again, if a few of his suggestions were taken by H or another candidate, the Dems. could have easily won.  |
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f6john
Member
Posts: 9735
Christ first and always
Richmond, Kentucky
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« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2016, 05:37:02 AM » |
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In part meathead might be accurate. I can't believe I was able to write that. But the most important reason people voted trump was they believed the country was on the wrong path due to the current potus and Hillary was going to continue with the same line of policies. The reason no one realized the ground swell for trump was the pundits and biased media made it clear that any one with a different view would be attacked.
Geez, I knew I was in the minority around here. But I didn't realize there was this much disdain for me. Absolutely no disdain for you, now your position on politics,,,,,,, but you being vocal has caused me to think and ultimately firm up where I stand on issues. My only real issue I have with your and some others views is that with all the back and forth I never understand why you take the positions that you hold. I usually understand why you didn't "like" Trump but could never understand the support for Hillary or Obama. I look at the voting map and most all the blue is in places I've never lived for even visited. I guess I need to get out more. |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2016, 10:58:02 AM » |
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In part meathead might be accurate. I can't believe I was able to write that. But the most important reason people voted trump was they believed the country was on the wrong path due to the current potus and Hillary was going to continue with the same line of policies. The reason no one realized the ground swell for trump was the pundits and biased media made it clear that any one with a different view would be attacked.
Geez, I knew I was in the minority around here. But I didn't realize there was this much disdain for me. Absolutely no disdain for you, now your position on politics,,,,,,, but you being vocal has caused me to think and ultimately firm up where I stand on issues. My only real issue I have with your and some others views is that with all the back and forth I never understand why you take the positions that you hold. I usually understand why you didn't "like" Trump but could never understand the support for Hillary or Obama. I look at the voting map and most all the blue is in places I've never lived for even visited. I guess I need to get out more. Thank you.  first of all, I did vote for Clinton. But to say I supported her would be incorrect. Now Obama, guilty as charged. I have supported him for many years now. I have been disappointed but overall I still have a lot of respect for him. Getting out more is always a good thing. Your statement about not understanding why I take the positions that I do. That is probably my fault for not communicating well. Lord knows I have tried to explain my opinions but it evidently doesn't come across correctly. |
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Pete
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2016, 05:54:08 AM » |
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OOPS, sorry but by definition if you voted for her you supported her.
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razor
Member
Posts: 162
What a RIDE!
Knoxville, Tn
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« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2016, 10:26:13 AM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
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Razor/ Ray
Some of the best days of my life have been spent behind bars!
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Pete
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« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2016, 03:09:47 PM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
WELL SAID, many of us agree completely. |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2016, 03:14:33 PM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
WELL SAID, many of us agree completely. You are for confiscation ? |
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Bighead
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« Reply #26 on: November 14, 2016, 04:55:25 PM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
WELL SAID, many of us agree completely. You are for confiscation ? I think he is saying in that instance YES |
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1997 Bumble Bee
1999 Interstate (sold)
2016 Wing
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Gavin_Sons
Member
Posts: 7109
VRCC# 32796
columbus indiana
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« Reply #27 on: November 14, 2016, 05:25:11 PM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
 I like the way you think. |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #28 on: November 14, 2016, 05:28:46 PM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
WELL SAID, many of us agree completely. You are for confiscation ? I think he is saying in that instance YES I will let Pete speak for himself. Are you in favor of confiscating guns ? |
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Gavin_Sons
Member
Posts: 7109
VRCC# 32796
columbus indiana
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« Reply #29 on: November 15, 2016, 03:00:18 AM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
WELL SAID, many of us agree completely. You are for confiscation ? I think he is saying in that instance YES I will let Pete speak for himself. Are you in favor of confiscating guns ? Like Bighead said, in that instance YES. You seem to have a hard time understanding straight forward answers. |
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« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 03:02:30 AM by Gavin_Sons »
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Valkorado
Member
Posts: 10514
VRCC DS 0242
Gunnison, Colorado (7,703') Here there be twisties.
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« Reply #30 on: November 15, 2016, 07:00:43 AM » |
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O'Reilly: The Inclusion Delusion. This is really on target. https://youtu.be/MaMcQelC3Js |
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Have you ever noticed when you're feeling really good, there's always a pigeon that'll come sh!t on your hood? - John Prine 97 Tourer "Silver Bullet" 01 Interstate "Ruby" |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2016, 07:14:35 AM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
WELL SAID, many of us agree completely. You are for confiscation ? I think he is saying in that instance YES I will let Pete speak for himself. Are you in favor of confiscating guns ? Like Bighead said, in that instance YES. You seem to have a hard time understanding straight forward answers. Maybe, but the question was to Pete. Did you understand that ? |
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Pappy!
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« Reply #32 on: November 15, 2016, 07:16:47 AM » |
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I think it might be even simpler. She got hardly anyone to vote for her. They mostly voted against Trump. It turns out this isn't a winning strategy. I think the turnout of total voters bears this out. People who might have been inclined to her politics just couldn't get excited about her and stayed home. It appears it's not enough to show how bad the other guy is. You've got to show that there is a reason to vote for you. She couldn't or didn't do it. That and they managed to keep Trump off the Tweeter the last couple weeks. Close but no cigar...... I believe that the "Establishment" felt that they were so rooted in Washington that they could even present a flawed candidate such as the career crook, Hillary Clinton, and still win the election. That no matter the candidate, liberals and the left would go, like Lemmings, to the voting booth and pull the lever. Americans with common sense, a bit of belief in the man upstairs, and a sense of decency were not about to pull that lever. As the rhetoric against Trump supporters built so did our resolve. |
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old2soon
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« Reply #33 on: November 15, 2016, 09:48:15 AM » |
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Very eloquent and succinct. He managed in a bit over 7 minutes to sum up almost 8 years of failure. zeros legacy you ask? A blue print for how NOT to do things as pertaining to the U S of A. Actually it's been more than 8 years. And waiting on the resident obamaphiles in 4-3-2-1! RIDE SAFE. |
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Today is the tommorow you worried about yesterday. If at first you don't succeed screw it-save it for nite check. 1964 1968 U S Navy. Two cruises off Nam.
VRCCDS0240 2012 GL1800 Gold Wing Motor Trike conversion
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Pete
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« Reply #34 on: November 15, 2016, 10:36:05 AM » |
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I think they are still getting it wrong. hillary has many problems and i'm not saying this was the only reason to vote for trump, but if you own a gun and believe in the 2nd amendment there is NO WAY you could or should have voted for hillary. I would be interested in that breakdown in the exit polls. I would further suggest if you do own a gun and voted for hillary, someone should come to your house and confiscate all your weapons cause you're too stupid to own them.
WELL SAID, many of us agree completely. You are for confiscation ? I think he is saying in that instance YES I will let Pete speak for himself. Are you in favor of confiscating guns ? Like Bighead said, in that instance YES. You seem to have a hard time understanding straight forward answers. Maybe, but the question was to Pete. Did you understand that ? If I had written the sentence I would have used the word "taken" or "voluntary surrender". But I did not write the sentence. I still agree with the concept that a gun owner stupid enough to vote for Hillary does not have the intelligence to manage a deadly weapon. I probably would have extend it to also say should not vote as they are also constitutionally challenged. Since she indicates all rights are subject to government restrictions. I am not a fan of "government" confiscating anything and I know it does not say that, but could be an implication. I am a fan of friends and family intervening in times of stupidity and confiscating potential dangerous objects when necessary. Like 3 year old and sharp knives. Guns and Hillary supporters. Voting ids and Hillary supporters. Like 3 year old and matches. Now that I think about it if you add "acting" in front of the "like 3 year old" all four could be the same person and that is ok too. |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #35 on: November 15, 2016, 11:09:48 AM » |
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Thank you for your response. I find it interesting how some are adamant about the 2nd amendment, but would easily ignore it if they don't agree with some.
VERY TELLING INDEED.
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razor
Member
Posts: 162
What a RIDE!
Knoxville, Tn
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« Reply #36 on: November 15, 2016, 12:10:39 PM » |
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meathead, i'm the one who wrote the statement. so if you want to know how i feel about the 2nd amendment ask me.
but here's a couple of questions for you. do you own a gun. did you vote for hillary.
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Razor/ Ray
Some of the best days of my life have been spent behind bars!
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Pete
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« Reply #37 on: November 15, 2016, 12:52:07 PM » |
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Thank you for your response. I find it interesting how some are adamant about the 2nd amendment, but would easily ignore it if they don't agree with some.
VERY TELLING INDEED.
NOT just the 2nd - all of them period as written. Not as many have it as suggestions with Gov. restrictions. What ever assumption you have made is WRONG again but do not let that interfere with you thoughts. |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #38 on: November 15, 2016, 01:01:55 PM » |
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meathead, i'm the one who wrote the statement. so if you want to know how i feel about the 2nd amendment ask me.
but here's a couple of questions for you. do you own a gun. did you vote for hillary.
yes, yes. Want to take my guns ? |
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The emperor has no clothes
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« Reply #39 on: November 15, 2016, 01:11:05 PM » |
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Thank you for your response. I find it interesting how some are adamant about the 2nd amendment, but would easily ignore it if they don't agree with some.
VERY TELLING INDEED.
NOT just the 2nd - all of them period as written. Not as many have it as suggestions with Gov. restrictions. What ever assumption you have made is WRONG again but do not let that interfere with you thoughts. I assume nothing. It was YOU that said any gun owner who voted for Clinton should have their rights taken away.  |
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