I've studied some influenza death statistics.

[Willow]

The influenza death statistics for 2017 hold a remarkable similarity to COVID-19 stats.  The vast majority of deaths are in people of age with other physical issues.  There were over 55,000 flu deaths in 2017.  Flu deaths have been diminishing at least since 1999.

We've never reacted to flu season by shutting down and damaging the economy.  We've not labeled annual influenza as a pandemic.  There were some 45 million flu cases in 2017.

We are currently a little over 5,000 deaths from COVID-19.  I would not be surprised to see that number increase to as much as ten fold.  I will be surprised to see it triple the number of flu deaths.

What is driving our journey?  Is it reality of the presentation of the "news"?  At what level does something bad transition to hysteria and how.

We do need to be careful.  As with during every flu season we need to regularly wash our hands.  We need to be careful of our contacts.  We need to learn not to casually touch with our hands our mouths, noses and eyes.

I'm not sure we need to put half the coutry out of work and go into another 5 trillion dollars of debt.

Time will tell, maybe.  Even then our assessment will be fraught with speculation. 

[Valkorado]

I'm getting tired.  I won't even touch this one.    

Anyone else want to take this?  Be ready to spar!

I will say the current R0 value in my little county is around 4, meaning one infected person is passing it forward to around four others.  In this county, I take it as seriously as a heart attack!

Yes R0 values can vary by saturation.  Our county is saturated.

"(Colorado) State data shows the coronavirus being somewhere between R0-3 and R0-4, meaning an infected person will infect 3-4 other people, on average".

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/colorado-data-shows-social-distancing-stay-at-home-order-could-save-tens-of-thousands-of-lives

[The emperor has no clothes]

And how many deaths would we have were we not to have instituted the mitigation ? The estimates I’ve seen from “our duly elected President’s” administration is 2 million. 51,000 vs. 2 million ? Seems like a no brainer to me.

[hubcapsc]

I've studied some influenza death statistics.

I looked at a youtube video about brain surgery.

-Mike

[The emperor has no clothes]

I've studied some influenza death statistics.

I looked at a youtube video about brain surgery.

-Mike

[f6john]

The influenza death statistics for 2017 hold a remarkable similarity to COVID-19 stats.  The vast majority of deaths are in people of age with other physical issues.  There were over 55,000 flu deaths in 2017.  Flu deaths have been diminishing at least since 1999.

We've never reacted to flu season by shutting down and damaging the economy.  We've not labeled annual influenza as a pandemic.  There were some 45 million flu cases in 2017.

We are currently a little over 5,000 deaths from COVID-19.  I would not be surprised to see that number increase to as much as ten fold.  I will be surprised to see it triple the number of flu deaths.

What is driving our journey?  Is it reality of the presentation of the "news"?  At what level does something bad transition to hysteria and how.

We do need to be careful.  As with during every flu season we need to regularly wash our hands.  We need to be careful of our contacts.  We need to learn not to casually touch with our hands our mouths, noses and eyes.

I'm not sure we need to put half the coutry out of work and go into another 5 trillion dollars of debt.

Time will tell, maybe.  Even then our assessment will be fraught with speculation. 

I have held these same thoughts since the beginning. If you die of the flu you are just as dead as if by C 19. That’s little comfort to the families of those facing funerals but why don’t we shut down the country for the flu? Not only do we not shut down the country for the flu we fund the systematic murder of the unborn. As a country our priorities are really screwed up.

I’m a diabetic and have had heart bypass surgery and Lord knows what else may be going wrong but I don’t live in fear of the C19 virus. I haven’t been tempting it and of course I don’t live in New York either. I hope all our leaders efforts are effective and deaths are minimized as much as possible. Two things seem to be key to the spread, large population centers and major travel hubs combined. Our great cities come with wonderful opportunities and with some terrible consequences.

We can all take comfort knowing Pelosi has formed a special committee to look into the handling of the response to the virus. I know all those who have worked tirelessly to corral this outbreak are quaking in their boots over what her committee will uncover.

Fear of the unknown seems to be driving a lot the hysteria. If you took all the deaths thus far and spread them somewhat equally across the nation it would hardly raise an eyebrow in the grand scheme of things to worry about.
I put my hope of survival whether I contract the virus or not in the Lord, He has carried me through many ordeals in life and have no doubt when I pass from this life it will be at the time preordained for me. I know many will not share my views but this is how I handle most all of life’s challenges.

[John Schmidt]

Say what you will gentlemen, this Covid-19 still hasn't reached the proportions we see during the regular flu season. Doesn't mean we can't/shouldn't be proactive re. our activities and contacts. I just feel some of the hysteria has been media driven, same as most other issues they(media) think is important enough to blow up.

[Big Rig]

My understanding is that it is airborne and length at which it (the virus) can live on surfaces.

Most flu is spread via physical contact. Surface to hand, hand to face. The make up of these cells is different. it is the "fatty" external layer that enables it's extended open air life.

My son (15 yo) asked why does the stock market not shut down while all of this is going on?? As I am not well versed in the business as usual stuff on the market. Why is it, if everyone is shut down does the market not close completely?

 

 

[The emperor has no clothes]

My understanding is that it is airborne and length at which it (the virus) can live on surfaces.

Most flu is spread via physical contact. Surface to hand, hand to face. The make up of these cells is different. it is the "fatty" external layer that enables it's extended open air life.

My son (15 yo) asked why does the stock market not shut down while all of this is going on?? As I am not well versed in the business as usual stuff on the market. Why is it, if everyone is shut down does the market not close completely?

 

 

Money ?

[Valkorado]

Dang!  Sucked in!

Okay, I don't fear c19.  I do hate the chit, another story.  Ya, ya die yer dead that's it.   I likely ain't gonna get plowed down by a virus but who the hell knows?   I sure ain't fearful or panicking.

I've said this, but C19 is -- in addition to the highly contagious thing mentioned above -- novel, no antibodies approved yet, no vaccine, some promising therapeutics.  Influenza has been known to mankind for thousands of years.  The ass kicker is that all the other stuff that fills ER bays & ICU rooms is still goin' down, meaning many hospitals are or soon will be facing overcrowding.  Add that to a lack of respirators and PPE gear, and it leads to triage (who lives, who dies), doctors and nurses contracting this crap and yes some even dying.  

I don't recall tents popping up, new hospitals being built, hospital ships being relocated to hot spots, military battleships in distress, entire countries on lockdown, streets being sprayed down, refrigerated tractor trailers at hospitals for bodies or ice rinks used as temporary morgues with seasonal influenza.  And, to your point, I don't recall economies on the verge of collapse due to seasonal influenza.  Or is all this just for show?

But I didn't study this stuff, it's just what I've seen with my own eyes.

BTW, I do agree with Dr. Fauci that WHEN it comes back next season (just like influenza does) we will be much better prepared to deal with it.  Hopefully by then our economy will also be roaring back!

Will I sleep well tonight?  You bet!

[Beardo]

Kudos to Trump and his team for releasing the projections on where this will go or could have gone had nothing was done. Should help those people who think this is just like the flu.

Or maybe not.

[Jess from VA]

Carl, I'm with you on your take on this thing.  I see the effect (of total shutdown) on the economy and market as far worse on the nation as a whole and more far reaching that the effect on health.  Of course, this is a macro view, and obviously those who suffer and die (or have loved ones die) may never see it this way.

So would be be better off with a little (or even a lot) more infection and death and a much better economy?  Yes, I think so, so long as it's not catastrophically more infection and death (whatever that is).  But in balancing this out, what is a reasonable amount of death, compared to a destroyed economy?  And there's the rub.  And the gamble, as even the best minds on this subject are all making educated guesses.  

While everyone wants the best solution to this thing (whatever that is), my long view of this (and other things) is that collectively over time, we humans continue to try to protect ourselves from injury, disease, war and death with greater and greater expenditure of time, study, advocacy and money.  Now factor in politics, and the left is more prone to this world view than the right, but the right is also inevitably drawn into line as time passes.  As we have industrialized and created vast educated middle classes, we have more time and money to spend on everything, including saving lives.... at any cost?

Look at the military.  There will likely never be any more Antietams, WWI trenches, Okinawas or D-days.  They cost too many lives, and people collectively will not stand for it ever again.  So we develop better and way more expensive technology for surveillance, aircraft, artillery, tanks, and tomahawks and smart bombs so we can defeat our enemies without pouring in 20 divisions of men with rifles to win battles anymore.  I remember reading it cost X bullets per enemy killed in WWI, WWII and Korea, but by Vietnam it was like 100K bullets for each enemy dead.  Now let's start calculating total dollar cost (instead of bullets) per dead enemy today, and the cost is HUGE (probably millions).

Look at the industrial and commercial world.  We are inundated with safety concerns in all workplaces with OSHA and reams of regulations, and every tool and product comes with warnings.  Whole government bureaucracies are created to enforce and control safety for us humans.  Government fines and thousands of liability lawyers exist to make it worth the cost for business and industry to toe the line with safety, lest the courts and judgments put them out of business forever.

And finally look at politics and media.  No politician, left or right (and it would be right), can stand up and say it is better to have an additional 30K deaths (or maybe even 330K deaths) than completely trash our economy and market for the foreseeable future, even if that was completely true (and that 30K is a small fraction of a percentage of our 330 million population).  The left and the media would destroy that man and policy forever and we might end up governed by pure left policy forever after.  And no one in his right mind would ever want that (it would be worse than any pandemic with 1000 fold more deaths).  So we go to full lockdown, spend trillions of national treasure, and do everything we can to save every life we can, no matter how badly it kills the economy and market.

This has the flavor of complete inevitability about it.  And I hope our markets and economies can take it and bounce back as soon as possible.

Does this mean I value money and business more than life?  Not at all... but enough loss of money and business can have a collectively worse effect on (surviving) civilization than loss of life.  

 

 

[_Sheffjs_]

The influenza death statistics for 2017 hold a remarkable similarity to COVID-19 stats.  The vast majority of deaths are in people of age with other physical issues.  There were over 55,000 flu deaths in 2017.  Flu deaths have been diminishing at least since 1999.

We've never reacted to flu season by shutting down and damaging the economy.  We've not labeled annual influenza as a pandemic.  There were some 45 million flu cases in 2017.

We are currently a little over 5,000 deaths from COVID-19.  I would not be surprised to see that number increase to as much as ten fold.  I will be surprised to see it triple the number of flu deaths.

What is driving our journey?  Is it reality of the presentation of the "news"?  At what level does something bad transition to hysteria and how.

We do need to be careful.  As with during every flu season we need to regularly wash our hands.  We need to be careful of our contacts.  We need to learn not to casually touch with our hands our mouths, noses and eyes.

I'm not sure we need to put half the coutry out of work and go into another 5 trillion dollars of debt.

Time will tell, maybe.  Even then our assessment will be fraught with speculation. 

And I keep watching Swedish news and texting with my Doctor friend Staffan in Motala, as with their very soft approach, what happens in a few weeks will be interesting.  The kids are in school and business is open including up to 50 in one setting. Even the bars are open. 

[signart]

All I can say is, I haven't lost any loved ones to the virus yet, but it's a safe bet that I can say goodbye to the $6 senior buffet at KFC. Think about all the Gold Wingers, why they'll shrink up and blow away without a R.T.E. at the Golden Corral and such.

[Willow]

My point is that the media induced hysteria is possibly more than and more damaging than was actually necessary.  COVID-19 is dangerous.  It will kill some people.  It will kill people in addition to those killed each year by the annual flu season.  The question is whether the media has created a fear of a catastrophe much greater than reality.

The media like to compare COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu of 1918.  The Spanish Flu infected about 360 million people and killed 1% of the world's population but that is across three years.  COVID-19 is not the Spanish Flu.

In Kansas we are on a month long lock down.  Fifty-four of Kansas' 105 counties have zero cases of COVID-19 reported.

Is it dangerous?  Do we need to be doing something?  Yes and yes.  Are we overreacting with resultant damage to the economy?  I believe so.  Is the economical damage resulting in deaths?  Yep.

I trust that the government is doing what it can but I firmly believe the hysteria is brought on by our media.

Yes, Sweden will be worth watching.

My hope is that we develop a vaccine and medical response to fight off the destruction of the virus.

Mike, the sarcasm is not worthy of you.  No U-Tube video is capable of preparing you or me to do heart surgery.  You and I are more than capable of comparing and analyzing statistics.  My stats I pulled mostly from the CDC.  I don't educate myself from U-Tube.  I consider that source to be heavily embodied with low intellectual quality presentations.

As I said we'll not know who was correct as we have chosen our path and the damage has already begun.  We can never accurately determine the impact of the path not taken.   

[Savago]

The influenza death statistics for 2017 hold a remarkable similarity to COVID-19 stats.  The vast majority of deaths are in people of age with other physical issues.  There were over 55,000 flu deaths in 2017.  Flu deaths have been diminishing at least since 1999.

... There were some 45 million flu cases in 2017....

Willow, let's do the math with your numbers. For the regular Flu we have:
Lethality = deaths / cases
Lethality = 55,000.0 / 45,000,000
Lethality = 0.0012222222222222222

Or converting to percentage it is 0.12%.

That means you got multiply it by 10x to get close to a lethality of 1%.

The regular flu also has a vacine and known course of treatment.

It is rarely lethal to young and healthy people.

Let's look on Covid-19: the numbers we got now point to a Covid-19 lethality of 3-5%, depending on the region (e.g. Italy numbers are worse than say, Germany).

Assuming a lethality of 4%, that would be close to 40x more lethal than the regular flu.

We don't have a vacine for it.

We don't have a known proven way to treat it.

It is also weirdly lethal to young/healthy people.

Do you really think this is 'Just a flu'?
 

[The emperor has no clothes]

My point is that the media induced hysteria is possibly more than and more damaging than was actually necessary.  COVID-19 is dangerous.  It will kill some people.  It will kill people in addition to those killed each year by the annual flu season.  The question is whether the media has created a fear of a catastrophe much greater than reality.

The media like to compare COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu of 1918.  The Spanish Flu infected about 360 million people and killed 1% of the world's population but that is across three years.  COVID-19 is not the Spanish Flu.

In Kansas we are on a month long lock down.  Fifty-four of Kansas' 105 counties have zero cases of COVID-19 reported.

Is it dangerous?  Do we need to be doing something?  Yes and yes.  Are we overreacting with resultant damage to the economy?  I believe so.  Is the economical damage resulting in deaths?  Yep.

I trust that the government is doing what it can but I firmly believe the hysteria is brought on by our media.

Yes, Sweden will be worth watching.

My hope is that we develop a vaccine and medical response to fight off the destruction of the virus.

Mike, the sarcasm is not worthy of you.  No U-Tube video is capable of preparing you or me to do heart surgery.  You and I are more than capable of comparing and analyzing statistics.  My stats I pulled mostly from the CDC.  I don't educate myself from U-Tube.  I consider that source to be heavily embodied with low intellectual quality presentations.

As I said we'll not know who was correct as we have chosen our path and the damage has already begun.  We can never accurately determine the impact of the path not taken.   

And were you able to wave a magic wand, take us back 3 years and become President yourself, your course of action would have been ?

[msb]

My thoughts are that I believe that  reality lies somewhere in between...as is the case with most things these days. Definitely a virus of significant  concern (no known antibody or specific cure if affected, the method in which it is transfered from human to human, its serious effect on many who get affected, and the extent to which populations from around the world connect physically these days enabling its ability to spread rapidly) . At the other end of the scale is the way communication is passed on currently... unfettered 24/7 availability of information, factual or not... at everyone's fingertips. At no other time in history has this been the case. There is no such thing as "ingnorance is bliss" or "what you don't know won't hurt you" anymore. We know about everything instantly and have plenty of other general population folks, groups pushing their own self-serving  idealogies, 24/7 media all too eager to push their opinion or own idealogies  instead of just reporting the news of the day, supporters of different political agendas and less than ethical politicians themselves, faceless corporate entities, etc, etc, that can't wait to indoctrinate the general populace with their specific perspective... many times with an objective in mind that is less than honorable. It's easy to imagine that there could very well have been and probably were un-named  viruses or un-named strains of known viruses of similar seriousness passing through populations 10...20....50 or whatever years ago... we just didn't have every single intricate detail and update from around the world about them instantly at hand to scare us (or wake us up, if you prefer) into taking precautions to the extent we are now (I guess to some degree this can be seen in a positive light). A somewhat vauge analogy... remember the time when a 110 year old person would just die of "old age" or "natural causes"? That's no longer the case... even those lucky or healthy enough to live that long now have to have a specific  cause pinned to their passing.

Again, do I believe that this current situation is deadly serious and warrants many of the extreme measures being taken here in North America and around the world? Absolutely I do. I also prescribe to the theory of using 100 lbs of force to squash something that needs squashing  that may only need 50 lbs of force to do the job just to be on the safe side, but I can't help but think that at least a reasonable amount of the "hysteria" driving everything right now is due in part to the aforementioned circumstances. I also believe that this may be a "check" period in our time, where people pause a bit to think about how to do certain things better, safer, or at least with a bit more thought behind them going forward... OK, maybe I'm being a bit naiive here
One thing I can say for certain is that once we are through this, one of my first actions other than travelling up North to visit my two daughters and their families, will be to meet up with some Valkyrie friends at a small roadside cafe somewhere to shoot the sh***  for a few hours 

[Valkorado]

My point is that the media induced hysteria is possibly more than and more damaging than was actually necessary.  
I trust that the government is doing what it can but I firmly believe the hysteria is brought on by our media.

I think the hysteria information presented by the top scientists in the field has a much greater influence on my thinking.  I've always taken the media with a grain of salt.  When someone with the scientific clout of Deborah Birx says the US could see up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths if 'we do things almost perfectly', I at least take heed of their advice.  Unfortunately, their advice is social distancing and that advice is having a huge negative impact on the economy.  Business as usual doesn't look very feasible at the moment.  Unfortunately that's the way it is.  Pandemic going on out there, ya know?

Will the estimates be accurate?   Who knows.  But it's not just some media talking heads I'm listening to.  It's Dr Birx, Dr. Fauci and other top scientists.  I think our President is listening to them as well.  I'm thankful he is.  

[Willow]

The influenza death statistics for 2017 hold a remarkable similarity to COVID-19 stats.  The vast majority of deaths are in people of age with other physical issues.  There were over 55,000 flu deaths in 2017.  Flu deaths have been diminishing at least since 1999.

... There were some 45 million flu cases in 2017....

Willow, let's do the math with your numbers. For the regular Flu we have:
Lethality = deaths / cases
Lethality = 55,000.0 / 45,000,000
Lethality = 0.0012222222222222222

Or converting to percentage it is 0.12%.

That means you got multiply it by 10x to get close to a lethality of 1%.

The regular flu also has a vacine and known course of treatment.

It is rarely lethal to young and healthy people.

Let's look on Covid-19: the numbers we got now point to a Covid-19 lethality of 3-5%, depending on the region (e.g. Italy numbers are worse than say, Germany).

Assuming a lethality of 4%, that would be close to 40x more lethal than the regular flu.

We don't have a vacine for it.

We don't have a known proven way to treat it.

It is also weirdly lethal to young/healthy people.

Do you really think this is 'Just a flu'?
 

To answer your closing question, no, I did not anywhere say it was "just a flu".  I do think the comparison of the impacts is meaningful.  The point is we don't shut down the economy every flu season and it happens every year.

Some of your numbers are off.  No one realistically estimates the COVID-19 lethal rate to be 4%.  The most common number is projected at 1-1.3%.

Meathead, I didn't bring the President or the government into my questioning.  We live in a democratic republic.  Once the media stirred up the population to hysteria the government had no choice but to take the measures they're taking.  It's not them.  It's us.

I do think there are areas that needed to have shutdowns.  NYC would be one of those.  There are some other densely populated cities that need that.  Were the average American capable of taking the necessary protective measures perhaps those wouldn't have gotten that far.  Unfortunately half of America is below average in intelligence.

[The emperor has no clothes]

It is the President who makes policy. I’ve not seen him cower to the media before, to the contrary he dismisses them at every turn. As a hypothetical, if the health experts were telling you with no mitigation we could lose 2 million citizens, would you go your own way or heed their advice ? Yes, it’s terrible what the economy is going thru. It has hit me with a hundred grand loss right at the time of my retirement. It pales in comparison to the loss of 2 million. I wonder what kind of impact that would have on the economy ?

[Savago]

Some of your numbers are off.  No one realistically estimates the COVID-19 lethal rate to be 4%.  The most common number is projected at 1-1.3%.

Quote: "And the country's fatality rate from COVID-19 — at 10% — is much higher than the global average of 3.4%, according to the World Health Organization. "
Source: https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html

I'm using 4% being extremely optimistic, as I known first hand the health care system in Italy and trust me: it is *way better* than the USA (and I got a 'Cadillac insurance plan' here in the USA).

I'm curious now: what is your source (i.e. 1.3%)? I think not even Germany got such numbers (and even that would still be a major catastrophe).

[Davemn]

2.5% mortality here in Minnesota. Of course this post will get deleted because it doesn’t fit your agenda.

[Jersey mike]

The influenza death statistics for 2017 hold a remarkable similarity to COVID-19 stats.  The vast majority of deaths are in people of age with other physical issues.  There were over 55,000 flu deaths in 2017.  Flu deaths have been diminishing at least since 1999.

... There were some 45 million flu cases in 2017....

Willow, let's do the math with your numbers. For the regular Flu we have:
Lethality = deaths / cases
Lethality = 55,000.0 / 45,000,000
Lethality = 0.0012222222222222222

Or converting to percentage it is 0.12%.

That means you got multiply it by 10x to get close to a lethality of 1%.

The regular flu also has a vacine and known course of treatment.

It is rarely lethal to young and healthy people.

Let's look on Covid-19: the numbers we got now point to a Covid-19 lethality of 3-5%, depending on the region (e.g. Italy numbers are worse than say, Germany).

Assuming a lethality of 4%, that would be close to 40x more lethal than the regular flu.

We don't have a vacine for it.

We don't have a known proven way to treat it.

It is also weirdly lethal to young/healthy people.

Do you really think this is 'Just a flu'?
 

To answer your closing question, no, I did not anywhere say it was "just a flu".  I do think the comparison of the impacts is meaningful.  The point is we don't shut down the economy every flu season and it happens every year.

Some of your numbers are off.  No one realistically estimates the COVID-19 lethal rate to be 4%.  The most common number is projected at 1-1.3%.

Meathead, I didn't bring the President or the government into my questioning.  We live in a democratic republic.  Once the media stirred up the population to hysteria the government had no choice but to take the measures they're taking.  It's not them.  It's us.

I do think there are areas that needed to have shutdowns.  NYC would be one of those.  There are some other densely populated cities that need that.  Were the average American capable of taking the necessary protective measures perhaps those wouldn't have gotten that far.  Unfortunately half of America is below average in intelligence.

I’m glad someone else opened the door on the % of death to cases.

As of 5:35 PM today 4/2

USA Deaths = 5.648   USA Confirmed Cases = 236,339 = 0.0238978755 so 2.4%

USA Population = 330M

USA cases 216,768 / 330M = 0.0006568727

USA Deaths 5,148 /  330M = 0.0000158

WORLD POPULATION 7.8 Billion

World wide cases
1,002,159.   /  7.8 Billion = 0.0001284819

World wide Deaths
51,485.   / 7.8 Billion = 0.0000066006

[Beardo]

It’s a fine line we’re walking here. We basically want our hospitals working at near 100%. Our province has basically stopped all non essential surgeries, scans, etc. Our hospitals are half empty. We haven’t been hit as bad as the big cities, thankfully. We have 4 covid patients in the hospitals, 2 in ICU from a total of 206 cases. That’s in the entire province of 1 million+.   We seem to have successfully flattened the curve by shutting down our province.

 But...by doing this at this pace, we’re causing this to drag out for months, possibly years. I get that we’re trying to bide our time til a treatment vaccine are found. But maybe we’re using 1000lbs of force on something that requires 100, like msb said?

Meanwhile, we have patients, 2 in my family that I know of, that are having their potential cancer biopsies and treatments cancelled.

Obviously, our situation doesn’t apply to more densely populated places. They’re completely shutting down necessarily, I think.

[Willow]

Some of your numbers are off.  No one realistically estimates the COVID-19 lethal rate to be 4%.  The most common number is projected at 1-1.3%.

Quote: "And the country's fatality rate from COVID-19 — at 10% — is much higher than the global average of 3.4%, according to the World Health Organization. "
Source: https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html

I'm using 4% being extremely optimistic, as I known first hand the health care system in Italy and trust me: it is *way better* than the USA (and I got a 'Cadillac insurance plan' here in the USA).

I'm curious now: what is your source (i.e. 1.3%)? I think not even Germany got such numbers (and even that would still be a major catastrophe).

I'm using mostly recent communications from CDC.  I pretty well dismiss WHO because of their history on this disease.  

Current numbers from place to place tend to be higher but projections tend to be 1 - 1.34 percent.  I'm pretty sure I heard Dr. Fauci todayuse the projection of 1.34.

Projections are loaded with speculation.  They're hard to come by right now as we're only counting diagnosed cases.  That leaves out non-symptomatic cases and those that are not deemed severe enough to be confirmed by test.  Further death percentages are skewed because some medical environments will count every death to a patient with COVID-19 as a COVID-19  death whereas some will attribute death to other lethal physical ailments even though they're complicated or intensified by COVID-19.

It could be as high as the 4% you used but I accept the lower number stated most recently by a majority of medical experts at 1 - 1.34 %.  Even that is ten times the annual flu rate.

[Serk]

IMHO it's somewhere in the middle.

The crisis is real.

The need for a lockdown for a limited time is real.

With no action the death numbers would be catastophic.

With action, the death numbers will still be far worse than even the worst year for Influenza.

But many in the media are breathlessly trying to make it as bad as possible, hoping for millions to die and hoping the economy crashes purely to hurt President Trump's chances for reelection.

But I truly hope I'm seeing things wrong and Willow's seeing things right.

[Willow]

IMHO it's somewhere in the middle.

The crisis is real.

The need for a lockdown for a limited time is real.

With no action the death numbers would be catastophic.

With action, the death numbers will still be far worse than even the worst year for Influenza.

But many in the media are breathlessly trying to make it as bad as possible, hoping for millions to die and hoping the economy crashes purely to hurt President Trump's chances for reelection.

But I truly hope I'm seeing things wrong and Willow's seeing things right. 

Brian, I agree wholeheartedly with most of what you say, especially with that final sentence.   

[Serk]

(Realistically, I think Willow just needs a group hug...  )

[Willow]

(Realistically, I think Willow just needs a group hug...  )

I am a physical touch person so you can imagine the tension this social distancing is causing me.  I do however not care much for group hugs.  I believe that when two people intentionally touch that something of one flows to the other and something of the other flows to the one.

Just in case anyone cares I'm sixty-nine, type 2 diabetic and a consistent BMI of 32+.  That makes me high risk by some medicos' definitions.

[Robert]

Here Comes The Next Crisis: Up To 30% Of All Mortgages Will Default In "Biggest Wave Of Delinquencies In History"

[Savago]

Just in case anyone cares I'm sixty-nine, type 2 diabetic and a consistent BMI of 32+.  That makes me high risk by some medicos' definitions.

Sorry to hear that. Please stay safe.
 

[hubcapsc]

Mike, the sarcasm is not worthy of you.  No U-Tube video is capable of preparing you or me to do heart surgery.  You and I are more than capable of comparing and analyzing statistics.

I posted a thoughtful response to this, but I don't see it... should I repost it?

-Mike

[Willow]

Mike, the sarcasm is not worthy of you.  No U-Tube video is capable of preparing you or me to do heart surgery.  You and I are more than capable of comparing and analyzing statistics.

I posted a thoughtful response to this, but I don't see it... should I repost it?

-Mike

Yes.  I didn't see it.  I hope none of my colleagues found it inappropriate.   ???

[Skinhead]

I've studied some influenza death statistics.

I looked at a youtube video about brain surgery.

-Mike

Hey Mike,

I've been getting headaches for a while now.  Do you think you could have a look around in there?  Make sure some wires ain't crossed?

[Willow]

I've studied some influenza death statistics.

I looked at a youtube video about brain surgery.

-Mike

Hey Mike,

I've been getting headaches for a while now.  Do you think you could have a look around in there?  Make sure some wires ain't crossed?

Not a good idea, Joe.  I'm fairly certain more than a few of those wires are crossed but the risk of straightening them out may be higher than the possibility for improvement justifies.

[hubcapsc]

Mike, the sarcasm is not worthy of you.  No U-Tube video is capable of preparing you or me to do heart surgery.  You and I are more than capable of comparing and analyzing statistics.

I'm (still) watching the president's news conference. I read through the headlines and some of
the stories in The Wall Street Journal today. I didn't watch The Today Show, Foxnews, CNN or
MSNBC today, last week or last month. I have sat through some of the NBC nightly
news on some days recently. I believe in "media induced hysteria" and I try to
avoid it. I think there's some hospitals where there's refrigerated trucks with
dead C19 victims in them. I think medical personnel, especially ones in hospitals
in the hot spots, think that C19 is a great big flipping deal. I think
C19 is very different from the flu. I think soon everyone will think C19 is
very different from the flu. I wonder about the statistics concerning American
hospitals that stored refrigerated trucks of dead flu victims last year?

-Mike

[signart]

Corona virus is not the flu, yet 55,000 die in a year as late as 2017 and we have vaccines readily available for the prevention of common flu. What would be the results and reaction to flu related deaths if there were no preventative vaccine or treatments like "Theraflu" available?

[Jess from VA]

You know, I've been reading a lot on flu vaccine (versus kungflu), and it's always been my understanding that these various flu vaccines were by no means full-proof against flu.  Yes there are different flu viruses going around each year, but many folks still got the flu they were immunized for anyway.

It's certainly helpful, but certainly no guarantee of immunity.   

[Valkorado]

You know, I've been reading a lot on flu vaccine (versus kungflu), and it's always been my understanding that these various flu vaccines were by no means full-proof against flu.  Yes there are different flu viruses going around each year, but many folks still got the flu they were immunized for anyway.

It's certainly helpful, but certainly no guarantee of immunity.  

Absolutely.   Some years they miss badly.   They are saying they're within five years of a universal flu vaccine that will cover them all.   God speed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1261615/coronavirus-cure-universal-flu-influenza-netflix-pandemic-jacob-glanville-spt

https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/03/24/a-universal-flu-vaccine-in-their-sights/