Knowing and Avoiding the Real C19 Risks

[F6Dave]

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

This is the best article I've read on the transmission of C19.  It goes into great detail on how you can receive an infectious dose of the virus.  It describes the more risky situations you might encounter, citing several mass transmission events.  It also lists low risk activities where we don't need to be too concerned.

C19 will be with us for some time.  The curve may be flattening, but it's flattening VERY slowly.  When this all began we were given some poor information, like being told we'd be fine if we just washed our hands.  Thankfully that's changing as it drags on and more is learned.  One of our best defenses is good information, so you can make choices based on realistic risk assessments.

[TTG53#1717]

Thanks. That was a good read for me. I finally had to go see my Cardiologist. Previously I balked at how the office was set up and wouldn’t do the appointment. This time it was a much better set up, and this write up makes me less apprehensive about the potentiality from my time there.

[Valkorado]

 

[F6Dave]

Thanks. That was a good read for me. I finally had to go see my Cardiologist. Previously I balked at how the office was set up and wouldn’t do the appointment. This time it was a much better set up, and this write up makes me less apprehensive about the potentiality from my time there.

Some doctors around here have closed their waiting rooms. You call from the parking lot to check in, then they call you when they're ready to see you. You don't get to read those really old magazines!

[scooperhsd]

THAT was an informative article !!!!

It read  to me like a common sense view. It is also calling to me about the community orchestra I play with could even do rehearsal - much preferable for it to be OUTSIDE (in fact, that is the ONLY way it should be done for the moment (with social distancing)!).

It also laid out what alot of us felt instinctively - there is some cause for caution, but there has been a great deal of over-reaction.

[scooperhsd]

Thanks. That was a good read for me. I finally had to go see my Cardiologist. Previously I balked at how the office was set up and wouldn’t do the appointment. This time it was a much better set up, and this write up makes me less apprehensive about the potentiality from my time there.

Some doctors around here have closed their waiting rooms. You call from the parking lot to check in, then they call you when they're ready to see you. You don't get to read those really old magazines!

And that's a bad thing how ?

[F6Dave]

Thanks. That was a good read for me. I finally had to go see my Cardiologist. Previously I balked at how the office was set up and wouldn’t do the appointment. This time it was a much better set up, and this write up makes me less apprehensive about the potentiality from my time there.

Some doctors around here have closed their waiting rooms. You call from the parking lot to check in, then they call you when they're ready to see you. You don't get to read those really old magazines!

And that's a bad thing how ?

You're right, sometimes that's the only good part of a doctor visit.

[3fan4life]

What I got from all of that is,

Unless you live in an isolation chamber for the next 18-24 months You're going to catch Covid-19.


While the author is very knowledgeable they are writing from a bias that says practically everyone is going to catch Covid-19.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off.

 



Even the highest predicted infection rate has only been about 10%.

Currently 0.41% of the US population is known to be infected.

Of course we've only tested 2.9% of the US population.

And 14% of those tested have tested positive.

And 5.8% of those have died.



So my take away from this is:

I might have a 14% chance of becoming infected.

Which means I have an 86% chance of Not getting infected.

If I do become infected I have a 6% chance (rounded up) of dying.

Which means I have a 94% chance of surviving.


 

[carolinarider09]

My take aways after reading Erin Bromage’s home page and the linked article.

Do not sing in a choir  (actually do not sing in any group)

Do not flush a public toilet or use a public restroom

Do not have a meeting in a closed office space (assuming more than one person is present) unless you have excellent ventilation. 

Working in an office area should be avoided if you cannot maintain a six foot distance between members.

Never speak to anyone, face to face, for more than five minutes

Never work in a meat packing plant.

No more weddings with more than the bride, groom and the officiating person present and he or she, must maintain a six foot distance.
 
No more birthday parties

Indoor sports are not allowed 

And, by the way, the analysis is relevant to any virus, not just COVID19.

The following was published in May 31,2012

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4676262/

Its not a new revelation.

[F6Dave]

Even the highest predicted infection rate has only been about 10%...

And 14% of those tested have tested positive.

Huh???

[carolinarider09]

In reviewing Erin Bromage's website and documents, I found something that was missing.  

In general, all of the requirements to catch or be infected by COVID19 are close contact.  So, I asked myself, what about kissing?  Is kissing allowed?  And next, would be what follows.

As I said, I have not seen anything regarding this in any posts here (or anywhere else) or any searches I have done, so, I took a proactive approach and found this post from New York City.  (WWW1.nyc.gov).  

And yes it appears to be a valid website.  The NYC document was also referenced in a New York Post article dated March 25, 2020.

The post is from March 27, 2020 so it was early on in the Pandemic.  

Warning:  The document is fairly descriptive.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-sex-guidance.pdf

[Valkorado]

Take the world in a love embrace...