Massachusetts COVID surge?

[Willow]

I'm going to post this as a new thread rather than get it wound into the crap of the COVID-19 sh!t thread that is about to get locked again.

This article confuses me a bit.  I have an opinion but I'm not posting here for an argument.  I just want to discuss and have someone maybe tell me how this makes sense.

In the write up they say 78% of the 469 cases were fully vaccinated.  They say 4 of the 5 hospitalized were fully vaccinated.  Later they say that vaccinations are the best strategy for avoiding the Corona virus infection.

BTW they report that 68% of the population there is vaccinated so the 78% to 22% seems like a near even spread.  That is that it seems like the chances of being infected are near the same for the vaccinated and for the unvaccinated.

I haven't seen this reported from anywhere else but this one does seem troubling.

CDC Report Regarding Town in Barnstable County, MA

[The emperor has no clothes]

Per the article ;

“The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, including the Delta variant, during this outbreak. As population-level vaccination coverage increases, vaccinated persons are likely to represent a larger proportion of COVID-19 cases. Second, asymptomatic breakthrough infections might be underrepresented because of detection bias. Third, demographics of cases likely reflect those of attendees at the public gatherings, as events were marketed to adult male participants; further study is underway to identify other population characteristics among cases, such as additional demographic characteristics and underlying health conditions including immunocompromising conditions.*** MA DPH, CDC, and affected jurisdictions are collaborating in this response; MA DPH is conducting additional case investigations, obtaining samples for genomic sequencing, and linking case information with laboratory data and vaccination history. Finally, Ct values obtained with SARS-CoV-2 qualitative RT-PCR diagnostic tests might provide a crude correlation to the amount of virus present in a sample and can also be affected by factors other than viral load.††† Although the assay used in this investigation was not validated to provide quantitative results, there was no significant difference between the Ct values of samples collected from breakthrough cases and the other cases. This might mean that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 is also similar. However, microbiological studies are required to confirm these findings.”


Understanding medical gobbly gook is not the easiest thing to decipher. But I think what they are saying is it’s incomplete information to draw conclusions from. I think mortality data from the vaccinated is going to give a clearer picture of its effectiveness.

[f6gal]

There isn't sufficient information to accurately assess this situation.  You are correct that the state population vaccine percentage suggests a near even split.  However, they also imply that the spike in cases was due to multiple large public events in a town in Barnstable County.  So, that begs the question, what was the vaccination rate at those events and in that town?  Did the participant demographics favor high-vax or low-vax percentage?  If the vax rate was very high at those events and in that town, then that would explain the higher incidence in those that have been vaccinated.  

Again, there is insufficient information to judge this one-off set of circumstances.

P.S.  I believe the comment that vaccinations are the best strategy is because that is the more common and widespread evidence, with this being an unusual (one-off) result.  

[sandy]

Connie, Our news recently reported that 94% of recent cases were not vaxed. Arkansas’s rate was 98% was unvaxed. Mississippi was similar.

[f6gal]

Connie, Our news recently reported that 94% of recent cases were not vaxed. Arkansas’s rate was 98% was unvaxed. Mississippi was similar.

Most states are similar.  As I said, I think that's why they still say vaccinations are the best strategy.  The Massachusetts report is not typical.

[f6gal]

Interesting.  I just found this article, which confirms what I had surmised.  Provincetown is 95% vaccinated.  The demographics of the visitors were all highly likely to be vaccinated, as well... predominantly liberal gay men, some liberal lesbians, and some liberal straight ppl.  That also explains why the infected were 85% male (I thought that was odd).

https://inguyun.medium.com/the-provincetown-outbreak-is-actually-good-news-if-you-are-vaccinated-93a1edd763b6

[Rams]

Interesting.  I just found this article, which confirms what I had surmised.  Provincetown is 95% vaccinated.  The demographics of the visitors were all highly likely to be vaccinated, as well... predominantly liberal gay men, some liberal lesbians, and some liberal straight ppl.  That also explains why the infected were 85% male (I thought that was odd).

https://inguyun.medium.com/the-provincetown-outbreak-is-actually-good-news-if-you-are-vaccinated-93a1edd763b6

From the CDC report:

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is highly transmissible (1), and understanding determinants of transmission, including human behavior and vaccine effectiveness, is critical to developing prevention strategies.

Behavior and physical contact may have contributed to the spread of the virus regardless of vaccination status.   Wasn't there so, I don't know.    This I do know, I'm much less likely to be run over while walking down a side walk versus choosing to stroll down the middle of a busy interstate.   

Rams

[Patrick]

So as long as you're a conservative and straight  you should be fine.   

[Hook#3287]

Connie, Our news recently reported that 94% of recent cases were not vaxed. Arkansas’s rate was 98% was unvaxed. Mississippi was similar.

Most states are similar.  As I said, I think that's why they still say vaccinations are the best strategy.  The Massachusetts report is not typical.

There is nothing typical about Provincetown.

[Rams]

So as long as you're a conservative and straight  you should be fine.  

An interesting conclusion but, that's not what I was suggesting.  
Regardless of political alignment or sexual orientation, physical contact and behavior could play a significant role in spreading this virus.   Would you not agree?

Rams

[Robert]

Carl I have never known you to need interpretation or ask opinions on here.

But with that said it seems that those who have pushed the vaccine are not happy right about now,
 and of course the results would be, vague to them.

But to those like myself who are not for the vaccine, it is a conformation of the ineffectiveness and possibility that the vaccine might actually make you, more susceptible to ongoing illnesses.

The summation in the opening of the article says:

July 2021, following multiple large public events in a Barnstable County, Massachusetts, town, 469 COVID-19 cases were identified among Massachusetts residents who had traveled to the town during July 3–17; 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated persons.

That is the summation, the conclusion and the point of the article. It reinforces results that many places have been seeing.

The other take away for me was this:

"COVID-19 cases were matched with the state immunization registry".

They are tracking and have a data base of those who had the shots contrary to what I have been hearing.

In all fairness this one article says its inconclusive but lump this in with other findings that echo the same results and you don't have a good track record for the vaccine.

As far as still recommending them what else are they going to do? There is nothing else available as far as a vaccine, they would have to fall back on treatment and it would not fit the mask mandates and other restrictions that have been put in place. Along with the idea they don't want their article censored for publishing the truth.


The other thing I do not like is this line:

"As population-level vaccination coverage increases, vaccinated persons are likely to represent a larger proportion of COVID-19 cases."

We were told that vaccinated persons could not get Covid or it would be rare. We were also told it would be effective against the variant.

Not only did they lie but, now it seems they play slight of hand with the numbers also since they are de-facto saying since there are more people who were vaccinated, than those who were not, then any case of Covid would be in a vaccinated person since all had the vaccine and would be the only number pool so as to calculate from.

This would  hide the fact that many who are vaccinated are getting Covid and possibly in greater numbers than those who did not get vaccinated.

The numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are pretty close so the statement is misleading or an outright lie.

[f6gal]

For those that didn't bother reading, here are the numbers....

750 of 57000 vaccinated folks tested positive, or 1.3% (far less than the expected 4.7%).
250 of 3000 unvaccinated folks tested positive, or 8.3%.
The unvaccinated were 7 times more likely to get Covid than the unvaccinated.

Hospitalizations: 6 vaccinated cases, or 0.6% of cases.

Zero deaths.

[Valkorado]

For those that didn't bother reading, here are the numbers....

750 of 57000 vaccinated folks tested positive, or 1.3% (far less than the expected 4.7%).
250 of 3000 unvaccinated folks tested positive, or 8.3%.
The unvaccinated were 7 times more likely to get Covid than the unvaccinated.

Hospitalizations: 6 vaccinated cases, or 0.6% of cases.

Zero deaths.

Telling numbers, I was unable to locate yesterday.  Thanks for doing the footwork research to find that data.   

[Willow]

Interesting.  I just found this article, which confirms what I had surmised.  Provincetown is 95% vaccinated.  The demographics of the visitors were all highly likely to be vaccinated, as well... predominantly liberal gay men, some liberal lesbians, and some liberal straight ppl.  That also explains why the infected were 85% male (I thought that was odd).

https://inguyun.medium.com/the-provincetown-outbreak-is-actually-good-news-if-you-are-vaccinated-93a1edd763b6

That would certainly explain the high percentage of vaccinated infections and implies a high degree of physical contact.

Thank you for that insight not mentioned in the CDC article.

[f6gal]

Interesting.  I just found this article, which confirms what I had surmised.  Provincetown is 95% vaccinated.  The demographics of the visitors were all highly likely to be vaccinated, as well... predominantly liberal gay men, some liberal lesbians, and some liberal straight ppl.  That also explains why the infected were 85% male (I thought that was odd).

https://inguyun.medium.com/the-provincetown-outbreak-is-actually-good-news-if-you-are-vaccinated-93a1edd763b6

That would certainly explain the high percentage of vaccinated infections and implies a high degree of physical contact.

Thank you for that insight not mentioned in the CDC article.

Exactly.  That pesky math thing again. 

[Valkorado]

Interesting.  I just found this article, which confirms what I had surmised.  Provincetown is 95% vaccinated.  The demographics of the visitors were all highly likely to be vaccinated, as well... predominantly liberal gay men, some liberal lesbians, and some liberal straight ppl.  That also explains why the infected were 85% male (I thought that was odd).

https://inguyun.medium.com/the-provincetown-outbreak-is-actually-good-news-if-you-are-vaccinated-93a1edd763b6

That would certainly explain the high percentage of vaccinated infections and implies a high degree of physical contact.

Thank you for that insight not mentioned in the CDC article.

Yup a high percentage primarily due to crowd density, resulting in very few moderate illnesses and zero deaths among the vaccinated.

Meh.

[Robert]

For those that didn't bother reading, here are the numbers....

750 of 57000 vaccinated folks tested positive, or 1.3% (far less than the expected 4.7%).
250 of 3000 unvaccinated folks tested positive, or 8.3%.
The unvaccinated were 7 times more likely to get Covid than the unvaccinated.

Hospitalizations: 6 vaccinated cases, or 0.6% of cases.

Zero deaths.

So why get the shot if you still get Covid?

Also no deaths among the vaccinated and unvaccinated?

Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated;

Its because you quoted another article other than Carls and its another town on the same peninsula but not the same town. Its also not a scientific journal its only a blog. Thats it, so is the CDC better or an unknown blog?





This is a caption in the article and explains the bit of reasoning,



NOT very scientific either in reasoning or numbers.

[Rams]

But with that said it seems that those who have pushed the vaccine are not happy right about now,
 and of course the results would be, vague to them.

But to those like myself who are not for the vaccine, it is a conformation of the ineffectiveness and possibility that the vaccine might actually make you, more susceptible to ongoing illnesses.

    Or maybe seeking an explanation...............  

Rams

[Valkorado]

But with that said it seems that those who have pushed the vaccine are not happy right about now,
 and of course the results would be, vague to them.

But to those like myself who are not for the vaccine, it is a conformation of the ineffectiveness and possibility that the vaccine might actually make you, more susceptible to ongoing illnesses.

    Or maybe seeking an explanation...............  

Rams

Or maybe just...

[f6gal]

For those that didn't bother reading, here are the numbers....

750 of 57000 vaccinated folks tested positive, or 1.3% (far less than the expected 4.7%).
250 of 3000 unvaccinated folks tested positive, or 8.3%.
The unvaccinated were 7 times more likely to get Covid than the unvaccinated.

Hospitalizations: 6 vaccinated cases, or 0.6% of cases.

Zero deaths.

So why get the shot if you still get Covid?

Also no deaths among the vaccinated and unvaccinated?

Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated;

Its because you quoted another article other than Carls and its another town on the same peninsula but not the same town. Its also not a scientific journal its only a blog. Thats it, so is the CDC better or an unknown blog?

It is the same town!!  The original article did not name the town, it only said a town in that county.

Why get the vaccine?  The same reason you get any vaccine... So you have less chance of contracting it and have a weaker case if you do contract it.

Guess what?  No vaccine is 100%.  They never claimed C19 vaccine was 100% (95.3% was expected).
 There are break through cases with virtually every vaccine ever made.  Flu, shingles, pneumonia, measles, polio, etc, etc.  Although Yellow Fever vaccine is darn close to 100%.

[Robert]

FYI the article you quoted and the original both make distinctions in the population of the towns and their location and gives their names, plus reasons.

I have been in both and there is a big difference.

But still the numbers you quoted are not in either article.

There are also NO verified numbers in your article.

[f6gal]

FYI the article you quoted and the original both make distinctions in the population of the towns and their location and gives their names, plus reasons.

I have been in both and there is a big difference.

But still the numbers you quoted are not in either article.

There are also NO verified numbers in your article.

I copied and pasted the numbers.  The first article did not name the town.  The second article was from someone who was there.  I provided it to give context that was not provided in the original article. Seems rather odd that 2 towns in that county had large events and spikes at the same time.  Perhaps the difference in numbers was a matter of when the info was retrieved.  Numbers don't remain static.

[The emperor has no clothes]

Guess what?  No vaccine is 100%.  They never claimed C19 vaccine was 100% (95.3% was expected).
 There are break through cases with virtually every vaccine ever made.  Flu, shingles, pneumonia, measles, polio, etc, etc.  Although Yellow Fever vaccine is darn close to 100%.

Uh, hold on now. It was determined yesterday that shingles vaccines weren’t needed if I had Chicken Pox as a kid. 

[f6gal]

Guess what?  No vaccine is 100%.  They never claimed C19 vaccine was 100% (95.3% was expected).
 There are break through cases with virtually every vaccine ever made.  Flu, shingles, pneumonia, measles, polio, etc, etc.  Although Yellow Fever vaccine is darn close to 100%.

Uh, hold on now. It was determined yesterday that shingles vaccines weren’t needed if I had Chicken Pox as a kid. 

Now, now, don't be guilty of propagating bad medical "information."

[Patrick]

So as long as you're a conservative and straight  you should be fine.  

An interesting conclusion but, that's not what I was suggesting.  
Regardless of political alignment or sexual orientation, physical contact and behavior could play a significant role in spreading this virus.   Would you not agree?

Rams

Its why I added the 

[oldsmokey]

Just on the news. 7 counties considered high risk, more so towards the Cape and Berkshires.  Several communities have reinstated mask mandates. Side note, Provincetown rates are down.  ( Oh Joy )

[Hook#3287]

A close friend of mine and his wife were both vaccinated. I don't know which one.

The wife visited California.

After she returned, they both got covid.

She was sick and he ended up in ICU for a week.

It was touch & go, but he thankfully pulled through.

So did being vaccinated keep her from ICU and him from passing?

Beats me, but both sides can claim their points I guess.

Me, I'm waiting for FDA.

[Rams]

So as long as you're a conservative and straight  you should be fine.  

An interesting conclusion but, that's not what I was suggesting.  
Regardless of political alignment or sexual orientation, physical contact and behavior could play a significant role in spreading this virus.   Would you not agree?

Rams

Its why I added the  

Patrick,
In my current condition (failing state of health), I must have mis-understood your intent, I apologize if it seemed I was jumping back.   As was explained in f6gal's thread about my upcoming demise, I have developed an attention span issue since I got the Moderna vaccine along with other seemingly unique symptoms.

Interestingly though, I just returned from a long ride to South Carolina and did experience a sore butt from sitting in the saddle for what seemed like a 500 mile ride there and another 500 on the way back.   That tired butt syndrome must be attributed to that "Jab" I got.   I can't see any other reason.  

Rams

[h13man]

It seems to be the consensus by two medical folk I know and respect their opinion that we are being infected deliberately as we have a lot of Chinese population due to having a major university in the area. Not putting any blame here but folks in the outer lying counties don't seem to have near problem as this populace has by percentage. My doctor is leading that county's "quest" against Covid but he isn't my resource of said input either. Social distancing is my only response as I'm not in favor of mask but...

[Rams]

Social distancing is my only response as I'm not in favor of mask but...

Based on my experience, you're in good company.   Not one person I know or have spoken with likes wearing a face mask.   Well, that's not totally true, there was that mugger.............. 

Rams

[Patrick]

So as long as you're a conservative and straight  you should be fine.  

An interesting conclusion but, that's not what I was suggesting.  
Regardless of political alignment or sexual orientation, physical contact and behavior could play a significant role in spreading this virus.   Would you not agree?

Rams

Its why I added the  

Patrick,
In my current condition (failing state of health), I must have mis-understood your intent, I apologize if it seemed I was jumping back.   As was explained in f6gal's thread about my upcoming demise, I have developed an attention span issue since I got the Moderna vaccine along with other seemingly unique symptoms.

Interestingly though, I just returned from a long ride to South Carolina and did experience a sore butt from sitting in the saddle for what seemed like a 500 mile ride there and another 500 on the way back.   That tired butt syndrome must be attributed to that "Jab" I got.   I can't see any other reason.  

Rams

I think I understand, no problem. It was my poor attempt at humor.

[Jess from VA]

Connie, Our news recently reported that 94% of recent cases were not vaxed. Arkansas’s rate was 98% was unvaxed. Mississippi was similar.

Most states are similar.  As I said, I think that's why they still say vaccinations are the best strategy.  The Massachusetts report is not typical.

There is nothing typical about Provincetown.

Boy you can say that again Bill.  I visited out there one summer in the mid 70's (with no warning whatsoever) and the overt (extrovert) gayness was a complete shocker for a midwestern hetero fellow like me. 

No thanks, I don't want to dance with you buddy. 

At least when I went to Key West a few years later, I had something to compare it to.  (I got asked to dance down there too).   

I was not putting out vibes either.  I was in a lot better shape back in those days, but I think all you had to do to attract attention in those places was wear pants.     

 

[Rams]

I was in a lot better shape back in those days, but I think all you had to do to attract attention in those places was wear pants.     

Nope, not going to ask, I have an active imagination and I don't want that picture in my head.   

Rams   

[RP#62]

I was in a lot better shape back in those days, but I think all you had to do to attract attention in those places was wear pants.     

Nope, not going to ask, I have an active imagination and I don't want that picture in my head.   

Rams   

When we lived there, they used to say that Halloween was redundant on Duval St.

-RP