The Weather Channel

[Jess from VA]

was remarkably accurate for many years in my area (NoVA).  i could practically set my watch on their predictions.  Whether I'm riding or mowing grass or shopping for food, I plan my days watching the weather.

But this year (or at least this summer) it has been remarkably inaccurate.  More days than not, it tells me to expect thunderstorms (often 'heavy' thunderstorms) 30 to 90%, and it gets plenty cloudy, but no rain at all, or maybe a few sprinkles or a short light rain.  They'll report storms are coming at 4pm, then 6pm, then 8pm, then not at all.  We have had some big thunderstorms and rain, but nowhere near as much as they've predicted.

And every day when no storm or rain is predicted they post this in red  There is a marginal risk of severe weather today.  If it's only a marginal risk, why mention it at all??

And if storms are predicted, they often say "high winds are the greatest threat", and we've had no high winds all summer.  

I suppose the high heat (we are having) makes bad weather more likely, and maybe more unpredictable.  I'm no meteorologist.

I think the Weather Channel has jumped on the sensationalism bandwagon.  Warn people, scare people, draw attention to themselves.

Anyone else notice this or having this issue in their area?    

[scooperhsd]

I don't much watch the weather channel anymore - I get my local weather from one (or more) of my local newscasts. For a broader view - I like Weathernation (similar to what the weather Channel used to be) or a YouTube channel (Ryan Hall y'all). If I want more detailed Tropical weather - I goto the source -
 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (or at least I will this year). I also have a weatherradio beside my bed  - that is usually for local severe weather events / warnings.

weathernation should be streamable - my late model Samsung UHD can stream it without using my FireTV. You can also get it from Dish Network (if you're a subscriber), and MAYBE your cable TV provider (where available).

[Willow]

If they say there's a 90% chance of rain and there is no rain, there was a 10% chance of no rain.  They're still correct.

[Jess from VA]

Right this very minute they're giving a bright red severe thunderstorm warning, and we've got a light sprinkle of rain, and a little distant thunder.

Another thing I do before (predicted) severe storms is crank my AC up.  We've lost power in hot weather enough, it's better to start with a COLD house.  My generator will power the whole house, but not 220, so no AC (except a small 110 window unit in the bedroom).  Back in May/June we lost power for a day and a half and the heat was pretty miserable.  

[NewValker]

I think TWC is too busy trying to convince the population that we can actually stop “climate change” so they can’t get the forecast right. That, and the worse they make it seem, the more they can say “ see, we must stop climate change.
A bigger sea wall, a bunch of windmills and solar panels in fields isn’t going to stop Mother Nature.

Just my .02

Craig

[scooperhsd]

Right this very minute they're giving a bright red severe thunderstorm warning, and we've got a light sprinkle of rain, and a little distant thunder.

Another thing I do before (predicted) severe storms is crank my AC up.  We've lost power in hot weather enough, it's better to start with a COLD house.  My generator will power the whole house, but not 220, so no AC (except a small 110 window unit in the bedroom).  Back in May/June we lost power for a day and a half and the heat was pretty miserable.  

If it comes down to that - we can retreat down to the basement (where it hasn't been above 70 all summer - it does have 2 vents from the central HVAC). It's thunderstorming (60 MPH winds) to beat the band here right now

My generator will supply 4800 watts on propane, not enough to power the central air conditioner.. I COULD go up to the attic and bring the 5500 BTU window unit down to a 1st floor bedroom window... But I'd do that only if we have a pretty bad area outage and I will be on generator for a while.

[Rams]

Meteorology, the only career I can think of where the meteorologist is/can be only right about half the time and still stays employed. 

According to my Spousal Unit, I am a natural........................ 

Rams   

[Jess from VA]

I think TWC is too busy trying to convince the population that we can actually stop “climate change” so they can’t get the forecast right. That, and the worse they make it seem, the more they can say “ see, we must stop climate change.
A bigger sea wall, a bunch of windmills and solar panels in fields isn’t going to stop Mother Nature.

Just my .02

Craig

That's an interesting twist on it I hadn't considered. 

They never understate the weather, they seem to always be overstating it these days.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling....     (Chicken Little)

At 10pm we did get a real thunderstorm and rain (full disclosure).   It was NOT severe. 

[Hook#3287]

Meteorology, the only career I can think of where the meteorologist is/can be only right about half the time and still stays employed. 

According to my Spousal Unit, I am a natural........................ 

Rams   

Well, you could add Military Services Recruiter to that list.

I would harass my brother, who was a Army Recruiter for some of his 20 years service, by telling him, Weather Reporters and Army Recruiters, both professional liars.

I use the web site Ventusy.com and do my own forecasts using NOAA.com for current radar.

You can get current radar on the Ventusky site also and it will predict weather for something like 14 days ahead with pretty good accuracy.

I record and watch the local news for general local forecast every morning.

Haven't watched TWC in decades, since they seem to be more dramatic than other weather forecast providers and only really provide a regional forecast.

[Challenger]

Have noticed WeatherBug has been inconsistent compared to previous years also. Our local station has ( First Alert Days)  which they over use. Kind of like the boy that cried wolf.

[Oss]

We had 5 inches of rain on Monday
They did say good chance of rain

I clock ossiningweatherhourly and usually pretty accurate

The Taconic Parkway was closed in Hawthorne backed all the way up to I287 in Elmsford
on my way home, took what back roads were open and was within 6 miles of home when another road was closed and u turn to another back road thru the Rockefeller's Pocantico Hills estates

a 30 minute ride took the better part of 2 hrs and if I did not bail off the Sprain Parkway at 287 I might still be on the road

So I just expect in summer around 3-5pm any day I could see bad weather and try not to be on the motorcyle at all this month as every day over 90 degrees I would rather ride in 40-60 degrees than summer anyways

[Rams]

Meteorology, the only career I can think of where the meteorologist is/can be only right about half the time and still stays employed.  

According to my Spousal Unit, I am a natural........................  

Rams  

Well, you could add Military Services Recruiter to that list.

I would harass my brother, who was a Army Recruiter for some of his 20 years service, by telling him, Weather Reporters and Army Recruiters, both professional liars.

I use the web site Ventusy.com and do my own forecasts using NOAA.com for current radar.

You can get current radar on the Ventusky site also and it will predict weather for something like 14 days ahead with pretty good accuracy.

I record and watch the local news for general local forecast every morning.

Haven't watched TWC in decades, since they seem to be more dramatic than other weather forecast providers and only really provide a regional forecast.

Back in the days dinosaurs roamed the earth (while I was in college) I took several meteorology classes.   I found it interesting but never considered it a career path.   Found that gained knowledge to very useful after I started flying helicopters.   But predicting Mother Nature is at best a SWAG much of the time.

Have noticed WeatherBug has been inconsistent compared to previous years also. Our local station has ( First Alert Days)  which they over use. Kind of like the boy that cried wolf.

Just my opinion but, much of current television weather forecasting is more about ratings and getting/keeping viewers for the commercial dollars such ratings generate than actual accuracy.   While there are a few exceptions, how often do you see overweight and ugly forecasters.  

Dramatic weather footage usually gets more viewings also.   Notice how we rarely hear about weather on other continents, it's a big planet but does the "Butterfly Effect" apply to weather?   I think so.

Hurricane season is quickly approaching, what starts somewhere else almost always have effects other areas.   Sometimes dramatic effects.

Rams  

[F6Dave]

I've noticed the same thing on the National Weather Service site. I'll see TORNADO WARNING on the map, and when I read the details it says radar indicates a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING will describe 1" hail, but when I check traffic cameras in the area there's rarely any hail on the ground. I agree, there may be an agenda.

I've noticed that since the NOAA/NWS budget cuts, they update the site in this area less, usually just once a day. But the alarming watches and warnings are as frequent as ever.

[scooperhsd]

We got hit hard overnight with severe thunderstorms (winds > 60 MPH). Our power went out about 0330 this morning, and is still out right now - we're on the generator I bought. No air conditioning, but we have lights, internet, TV, and the food will stay cold (have 1 fridge that is not currently on the genny). Basement floor is soaked - it's going to take a week or 2 (maybe longer) to dry it out with the dehumidifiers. Even the sump pit is full.

[3fan4life]

I don't watch the Weather Channel.

I do use their app.

I have found the 6hr predictive radar to be very accurate.

The 72hr not so much.

[RP#62]

I don't know if I'd describe the weather coverage as dramatic.  I'm just hoping the bomb cyclones don't stir up the murder hornets again.

RP

[Jersey mike]

I don't watch the Weather Channel.

I do use their app.

I have found the 6hr predictive radar to be very accurate.

The 72hr not so much.

I’ll second that.

I don’t use the day to day forecast too much with exception for temps and an overall idea IF there could be rain. Stray, quick forming and quick moving T-storms are always a thing around here during the summer.

[Hook#3287]

I don't know if I'd describe the weather coverage as dramatic.  I'm just hoping the bomb cyclones don't stir up the murder hornets again.

RP

I concur, weather forecasting is not dramatic, or has no reason to be. TWC is dramatic and produces many weather related shows on past events that are dramatically produced.

But, as stated, it's all about ratings and advertising dollars.

TWC used to be just current conditions and forecast with, in my area, local "weather on the 8's"

[LadyDraco]

The  weather  folks  can't  predict crap anymore.
my cattle  ,myself  and  the  cat  can do better 

[carolinarider09]

The  weather  folks  can't  predict crap anymore.
my cattle  ,myself  and  the  cat  can do better 

 

[crow]

NOAH used to send up 600  balloons a day to measure barometric pressure, wind direction at different altitudes and more.  The current administration has cut that to 300

[Jersey mike]

NOAH used to send up 600  balloons a day to measure barometric pressure, wind direction at different altitudes and more.  The current administration has cut that to 300

And NOAH still couldn’t avoid the flood.

Meanwhile NOAA cutting their balloons is not all that terrible and if The Weather Channel needs additional information for more accurate forecasts I believe they are free to conduct their own balloon tests. Let’s not forget just because the number was reduced doesn’t mean it cannot go back up.

600 balloons a day to make atmospheric readings means a lot of devices that most likely never get used again. Those balloons go up to 100,000 feet with sensors in them and when the balloon pops, the sensor has an attached parachute so it drifts down back down. It’s my understanding nobody goes out searching for them but if anyone finds one they can mail it back.



Rough Estimate:

Balloon: $200–$300
Radiosonde: $70–$100
Gas (helium/hydrogen): $50–$150 (helium being higher)
Labor (for manual launches): $50–$100 per launch, assuming 1–2 hours of staff time at $25–$50/hour
Total per launch: Approximately $370–$650, with variations based on gas type, automation, and site-specific factors.
For 76,600 launches annually, the total cost could range from $28 million to $50 million,




The exact cost for NOAA to launch a weather balloon is not explicitly detailed in available sources, as costs can vary based on equipment, location, and operational factors. However, some insights can be pieced together from related information.

Each weather balloon launch involves a latex balloon, filled with helium or hydrogen, and a radiosonde, which measures atmospheric data like temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind. The National Weather Service (NWS), part of NOAA, launches approximately 76,600 balloons annually across 100+ sites in the U.S. and its territories, typically twice daily.weather.govaxios.com

Key cost components include:

Balloon and Gas: A standard weather balloon (e.g., 3000g capacity) costs around $200–$300, based on commercial pricing for similar high-altitude balloons. Helium, used at 12 NWS sites, is more expensive than hydrogen, which is used at most other sites for cost-effectiveness. A single launch requires enough gas to inflate a balloon to about 5–6 feet in diameter, with costs varying due to market fluctuations. For instance, helium shortages in 2022 led to reduced launches at some sites, highlighting its higher cost.weather.govstratoflights.com

Radiosonde: These instruments, which are single-use and often not recovered, cost approximately $70–$100 each, based on industry estimates for similar meteorological equipment. The NWS uses advanced GPS-based radiosondes (e.g., GRAW models), which may be pricier due to modern sensors and software integration.weather.govweather.gov

Labor and Infrastructure: Manual launches require staff time (about 90 minutes per launch, including preparation and monitoring). Automation, like the autolaunchers used in Alaska, reduces labor costs significantly, with NOAA estimating $1 million in annual savings in Alaska alone, or $20 million over 20 years for 13 sites. This suggests labor and manual operations are a significant cost factor.noaa.govnoaa.gov

Miscellaneous: Parachutes, twine, and ground equipment (e.g., tracking antennas, computers) add minor costs. Automated systems, like the Manual Radiosonde Observing System (MROS), require initial investment but lower long-term operational costs.weather.govweather.gov
Rough Estimate:

Balloon: $200–$300
Radiosonde: $70–$100
Gas (helium/hydrogen): $50–$150 (helium being higher)
Labor (for manual launches): $50–$100 per launch, assuming 1–2 hours of staff time at $25–$50/hour
Total per launch: Approximately $370–$650, with variations based on gas type, automation, and site-specific factors.
For 76,600 launches annually, the total cost could range from $28 million to $50 million, though automation and hydrogen use likely keep costs toward the lower end. Private companies like WindBorne Systems claim their advanced balloons, which fly longer and collect more data, are slightly more expensive per launch but cost-effective over time due to extended flight durations (e.g., two weeks vs. two hours).wmtw.com

NOAA’s shift to autolaunchers and hydrogen at many sites reflects efforts to minimize costs, especially in remote areas like Alaska, where staffing is challenging. However, precise per-launch costs depend on factors like gas market prices and whether launches are manual or automated.noaa.govweather.gov

For the most accurate figure, you’d need to contact NOAA directly at upperair@noaa.gov or NWS.PA@noaa.gov, as they don’t publicly break down per-launch costs.weather.gov