The future is almost here: Predictions!

[John Schmidt]

Sociologists and Tech Wizards are making scary predictions....

1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical engine has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots Essentially, if your electric "Check Motor" light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new engine.

2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations.

3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

4. Coal industries go away. Oil companies go away. Drilling for oil stops.

5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users.

A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

1. The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle! In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people won't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975 The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age!!

2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

3 Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, yet they are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

6. In the U.S., young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain.

6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

8A. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives worldwide each year.

8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla

9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020..
Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue... technology will take care of that strategy.

14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.

16. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

17. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

18. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

19. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

20. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?" And, if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

20A. If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.

21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source".

24. And on and on!!!!

[larue]

Humans have always been their own enemy

[Valkorado]

If I can't eat bugs riding my Valks any longer, I might as well eat 'em on purpose.

[¿spoom]

Chances are we'll still need fossil fuels for a while to produce the electricity, but the gas engine is pretty much obsolete. Course we'll still need gas engines to power our portable generators so we can recharge those cars on the side of the road or during power outages 

[Hook#3287]

My understanding is, the problem with some of these predictions is storage capacity of energy produced.

We don't have batteries large enough.   

[Bighead]

Biggest problem with the first line is an Electric motor is a motor not an engine. Motors run on electricity an engine runs on fuel.

[gordonv]

My understanding is, the problem with some of these predictions is storage capacity of energy produced.

We don't have batteries large enough.   

I wrote a while ago about graphene.

Sociologists and Tech Wizards are making scary predictions....
snip
15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
snip

Recently say the Tricoder (or one like it) on, The Henry Ford's Innovation Nation with Mo Rocca.

snip
2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations.
snip
4. Coal industries go away. Oil companies go away. Drilling for oil stops.
snip

In the North, businesses already have plugs for block heaters for their employees.

It was not said petroleum would no longer be used, basically new sources of them. What we have will be used for making things (plastic), until other items are used instead (plastic from veg oil)

[Patrick]

Biggest problem with the first line is an Electric motor is a motor not an engine. Motors run on electricity an engine runs on fuel.

How about the outboard motor. I still mix oil with the fuel in mine.

[Jess from VA]

Whatever else happens, I bet taxes don't come down (on anything).

[cookiedough]

Chances are we'll still need fossil fuels for a while to produce the electricity, but the gas engine is pretty much obsolete. Course we'll still need gas engines to power our portable generators so we can recharge those cars on the side of the road or during power outages 

I am not buying into most of what was said.  The day the GAS auto goes bye bye and electrical vehicles take over entirely will ruin this country in terms of jobs and deplete the economy in short order if it does ever happen.

It will happen eventually, just not in the next 20-30 years for sure IMO.

Heck,  remember when GM being General Motors was converted into what I call Government Motors needing a bailout?  Any other company would have been dissolved and gone away entirely but GM was needed I feel to keep the economy rolling along being so HUGE in terms of our economy.   What would have happened if GM was allowed to been entirely gone away with????

[Gavin_Sons]

Remember back in the 80's they said by year 2000 we would have flying cars. I'm still waiting on that 18 years later. 

[Gavin_Sons]

Biggest problem with the first line is an Electric motor is a motor not an engine. Motors run on electricity an engine runs on fuel.

How about the outboard motor. I still mix oil with the fuel in mine.

Still an engine by definition even though we call them motors.

[0leman]

Lot of good ideas, but still need to come up with long lasting, cheap, small size energy storage.  It won't be developed for a while nor on the market by 2020 (that's only a year and a half from now).  Lot of what was predicted was base on it being developed and soon.  Solar won't be a major player in the creating energy till that kind of battery is developed.  This is because solar only produces energy for 8-10 hours a day.   Wind is really iffy. 

Carbon based fuel will still be the main source of fuel to create energy 20-30 years from now and maybe years more in the future.   Most of their predictions will be just like the above mention flying cars.

[old2soon]

Good news is gasoline is Still available. The other good news-least ways fer me-30  35 miles south and 50  65 miles west-west dragstrip and south dirt roundy round. I believe I will NOT see the internal combustion engine disappear in my lifetime. BUT as either one of my x wives and 6 children be Happy ta tell ya-I've been wrong before!  RIDE SAFE.

[franco6]

THE BOAT IS ROCKING.
 

[Pappy!]

[/quote]How about the outboard motor. I still mix oil with the fuel in mine.
[/quote]

Two stroke outboards have already been pretty much phased out for several years now and the ones that remain are actually cleaner operating than their 4-stroke counterparts. You fill a reservoir with oil and let the computer do the rest.
Having said that, electric outboards are being designed and built already. Also propane powered outboards. The Military is testing electric outboards already on the East Coast of Florida. These electric outboards produce around 40hp already.

[Moonshot_1]

Remember back in the 80's they said by year 2000 we would have flying cars. I'm still waiting on that 18 years later. 

Ever watch "Dukes of Hazard"?

[cookiedough]

How about the outboard motor. I still mix oil with the fuel in mine.
[/quote]

Two stroke outboards have already been pretty much phased out for several years now and the ones that remain are actually cleaner operating than their 4-stroke counterparts. You fill a reservoir with oil and let the computer do the rest.
Having said that, electric outboards are being designed and built already. Also propane powered outboards. The Military is testing electric outboards already on the East Coast of Florida. These electric outboards produce around 40hp already.
[/quote]

40hp outboard is all I need for my 17 foot fishing boat.  back in the mid to late 1990s when I bought my new 1997 boat and 40hp mercury, the upfront cost of then new technology being 4-stroke was over 2 grand more to buy a 40 hp mercury or honda vs. an oil injected 2-stroke.  I choose the 2-stroke oil injected and was a smart move since unless you use it weekly, the upfront higher cost will never ever recoupe any of the gas savings of a 4-stroke outboard. 

propane is a neat idea though that should keep adding to engines.  I know the propane ice fishing power auger is buttery smooth and efficient sure beats mixing oil and gas and much easier to deal with and probably will outlast or should outlast any gas powered ice fishing auger.  Only time will tell, but no way would I ever buy an electric hybrid vehicle even if a partially electric hybrid.    Drove a prius once and will not do it again, no thanks.

[baldo]

Remember back in the 80's they said by year 2000 we would have flying cars. I'm still waiting on that 18 years later. 

It's almost here....

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/13/16643342/volvo-geely-terrafugia-flying-car-acquisition

sooooo.....

[Patrick]

Biggest problem with the first line is an Electric motor is a motor not an engine. Motors run on electricity an engine runs on fuel.

How about the outboard motor. I still mix oil with the fuel in mine.

Still an engine by definition even though we call them motors.

The history of these two terms is kinda interesting.  They actually can be used interchangeably.

[Gavin_Sons]

Remember back in the 80's they said by year 2000 we would have flying cars. I'm still waiting on that 18 years later. 

It's almost here....

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/13/16643342/volvo-geely-terrafugia-flying-car-acquisition

sooooo.....

still nothing like they said it would be. They said it would be like the Jetson's cars. Ones that can hover. Those flying cars in your link will never be used for everyday commutes. I see them as a recreational vehicle, like a boat or jet ski. So we are still a long way off. I'll probably never see it in my lifetime.

[solo1]

I was educated about electric motors vs gasoline engines (except for Ollie's invention, the outboard motor, LOL)

I also called wheels wheels, not rims. Rims were the outside of the two piece wheel of early 1930 cars.

Overall, I don't much care for the predictions except the one with less lawyers.

[czuch]

Will soylent green still be people?

[hubcapsc]

Guys... we have motorcycles.

-Mike 

[0leman]

The electric motor will out preform most ICG's in most vehicles.  The problem with the electric motor is a battery.   Most of the todays batteries will not hold enough charge to be driven cross country or out to the country and back like a ICG's can.    At least not yet.  Then there is the time to completely charge the battery once the charge is nearly gone.  Gas takes only minutes to fill a tank.

Once one comes up with a better battery, the ICG will be gone.  I don't look for it to happen in the next 20 years or so (my expected lift time). 

As far as solar replacing energy production, several folks who study solar as it stands today calculated the amount of land needed to have solar panels on it to replace the carbon fueled energy plants would take up most of the mid west states.  Not going to happen for now.  Wind would take even more land.   

[Gryphon Rider]

When I started reading this, I thought it must be written by a grade 8 student, with the volume of amazing facts and confident predictions, and without shouldering the burden of providing sources for these "facts" or reasoning for the predictions.  Actually, it's written by a salesman with a chemical distribution company who has a bachelor's degree in business administration, not a sociologist nor a tech wizard.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/future-almost-here-its-both-scary-exciting-bryan-huston
https://www.acme-hardesty.com/leadership/bryan-a-huston/

[Wizzard]

When I started reading this, I thought it must be written by a grade 8 student, with the volume of amazing facts and confident predictions, and without shouldering the burden of providing sources for these "facts" or reasoning for the predictions.  Actually, it's written by a salesman with a chemical distribution company who has a bachelor's degree in business administration, not a sociologist nor a tech wizard.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/future-almost-here-its-both-scary-exciting-bryan-huston
https://www.acme-hardesty.com/leadership/bryan-a-huston/

All it is ,, is an opinion.