Get Ready for $4 Gasoline!

[Jersey mike]

From what I've read, Venezuela has heavy "sour" crude oil, but a lot.

Chevron has the facilities in country and in Venezuela to process it and is currently doing 250k to 375k barrels per day with capacity for much more.

USA refineries can handle that oil, which is used for diesel and jet fuel, according to what I read.

Anyways, I just paid $3.69 at the pump for 87

I believe the refineries in California were capable of processing Venezuelan oil. I've lost track of if there are even any open there anymore.

[F6Dave]

I assume those 'deactivated' drilling rigs are sitting in a storage yard somewhere in Venezuela. They will likely need some maintenance but the short time frame sounds promising. After nationalization the government, with no experience in the oil business, let much of the infrastructure crumble. Companies like Chevron that remained (by giving Venezuela a controlling interest) kept their equipment running. That's given them a head start with Maduro gone.

Even onshore rigs are massive structures, and it takes a small convoy of 18 wheelers to move one to a well site. Then it can take a few more days to 'rig up' the structure and bring in all the supporting services.

These days it only takes a week or two to drill a typical well in the areas I'm most familiar with: the Rockies, Texas, and Oklahoma. It used to take months. In fact, 20 years ago a company I was working with was drilling their first horizontal wells at the very beginning of the 'shale revolution'. They were really struggling with the new (to them) horizontal drilling techniques. One well took over 200 days. That's an expensive learning curve when you're paying over $25,000 per day for the rig!

During and after drilling, multiple layers of steel casing are run in the hole, cement is pumped between the open hole and the casing to protect aquifers, then the rig is moved out. These days they often slide the rig on a concrete pad to the next well as horizontal drilling lets you drill in different directions from a central location. Then comes the completion phase, where the casing is perforated, often with explosive charges from a 'perf gun'. Then comes the part environmentalists love, hydraulic fracturing or Fracking. It is simply the process of pumping water and sand under extremely high pressure through the perforations to fracture the rock. The sand remains to 'prop' the cracks open, but the pressure of the oil and gas pushes the water back to the surface where it is processed and often reused. Fracking has been around for nearly 80 years but it is more critical in dense shale rock than more porous sandstone.

I'll stop rambling now. This is such a fascinating industry that it's easy to get carried away.

[F6Dave]

From what I've read, Venezuela has heavy "sour" crude oil, but a lot.

Chevron has the facilities in country and in Venezuela to process it and is currently doing 250k to 375k barrels per day with capacity for much more.

USA refineries can handle that oil, which is used for diesel and jet fuel, according to what I read.

Anyways, I just paid $3.69 at the pump for 87

I believe the refineries in California were capable of processing Venezuelan oil. I've lost track of if there are even any open there anymore.

Most American wells used to produce heavy, sour (high H2S) crude oil. The 'shale revolution' changed that and now most of our oil and gas comes from shale wells that produce lighter, 'sweet' crude. All but a few refineries pre-date the shale revolution, and are optimized for the heavy, sour stuff. Those refineries have additional facilities to remove the sulfur and break down the heavier crude. Running the wrong kind of crude through a refinery is possible but inefficient as it underutilizes extremely expensive equipment. I'm sure the same applies to many other types of manufacturing.

[Hook#3287]

F6Dave, thanks for the info👍

Obviously, you have more experience in the oil drilling systems and process than anyone else here.

I don't consider information/knowledge transfer as rambling.

[F6Dave]

I'll add one more bit of interesting info that I may have mentioned earlier. The Kern River field near Bakersfield, CA is huge (thousands of wells) with extremely heavy crude. It is solid at room temperature. When I worked for Texaco (pre Chevron merger) they pumped steam down adjacent wells to soften the crude enough to allow it to be pumped. The steam also ran through generators and provided enough electricity for a city of 250,000. Then the water was separated from the oil, purified, and put back in the Kern River where it got used for crop irrigation in California's central valley. Employees called the operation an 'energy factory', producing oil and electricity.

I think they use solvents instead of steam to soften some of the heavy Venezuelan crude, and they may be doing that in Bakersfield too.

[scooperhsd]

Shifting back to consumer petroleum pricing - D2 around me is now at $5.199 and higher. I think regular unleaded is topping $3.80, and no-ethanol is $.50 - $1.00 above that.

[F6Dave]

Shifting back to consumer petroleum pricing - D2 around me is now at $5.199 and higher. I think regular unleaded is topping $3.80, and no-ethanol is $.50 - $1.00 above that.

Prices around here have gone much higher. 85 octane 'regular' is about $4.50. 87 octane is $5 and diesel is near $6. If prices stay this high the election could be ugly.

I hope Bessant's sanctions are significant enough to change the course of the war. More of the same could send oil to $100 or more and $5 gas would be common. It's surprising what a major player Bessant has become. He's one of the best in Trump's administration.

If the sanctions work and Iran settles down, I wouldn't be surprised to see a shakeup at DOD. The strategy of taking out the old leaders then counting on a citizen revolt obviously didn't work, and from what I've read there wasn't even a serious contingency for that or the closing of Hormuz. Kids playing video games could have seen that coming! Trump needs better advice.

[Jersey mike]

Shifting back to consumer petroleum pricing - D2 around me is now at $5.199 and higher. I think regular unleaded is topping $3.80, and no-ethanol is $.50 - $1.00 above that.

Prices around here have gone much higher. 85 octane 'regular' is about $4.50. 87 octane is $5 and diesel is near $6. If prices stay this high the election could be ugly.

I hope Bessant's sanctions are significant enough to change the course of the war. More of the same could send oil to $100 or more and $5 gas would be common. It's surprising what a major player Bessant has become. He's one of the best in Trump's administration.

If the sanctions work and Iran settles down, I wouldn't be surprised to see a shakeup at DOD. The strategy of taking out the old leaders then counting on a citizen revolt obviously didn't work, and from what I've read there wasn't even a serious contingency for that or the closing of Hormuz. Kids playing video games could have seen that coming! Trump needs better advice.

Bessent knows his way around the financial system and markets, unfortunately it does take time to dig deep into how money flows. There are ways that aren't just so simple to find and figure out, deep forensics is necessary.

As for The Strait, it was talked about many times (interviews, articles, former military officials) that for many years through military simulations and discussions Iran shutting down the Strait would be an end result and from the sound of it that's where it was always left.

Now this is my opinion, nothing can actually ne solved until the problem is there to solve in real life. Speculation and hypothetical scenarios and solutions remain just that, there are times when a problem must be solved in real time, as it is actually happening.

This is not a problem written on paper we are dealing with. Mathematically it cannot be solved, there are no equations to fall back on where a solution is guaranteed. Militarily we are engaged in real time problem solving as well as gaining valuable knowledge, experience and information on the adversary and their capabilities. While it may seem slow, it's in our interest to be methodical in our approach and not rushed. Measurements twice, cut once, and there's a lot of layout to do here.

For the first time in a long time our military is engaged with what is a very important military operation. Our navy and air crews are actively involved and working, not just drilling. I think we've gained some great experience and information on our weapons and their real capabilities and how to use them in conjunction with other weapons.

Have we expended ordinance, yes we have. Have we lost some personnel, sadly yes we have. Have we lost some planes and drones, yes we have but unfortunately this is or was to be expected. Do I believe the media on the reports of the dire straits the navy personnel were in, no I don't. I'm sure there are a few disgruntled sailors and that's their right to be disgruntled but I do not believe it was as extreme as it was portrayed to be. There was one video of a woman being interviewed saying "when her son signed up for the navy, it wasn't in the brochure he'd be deployed for months on end without a break." I don't know what navy she's talking about.

Unfortunately problem solving takes time, there is no reaching into the desk for the right folder for an answer key. It may seem to the average person we are muddling through this but I don't think so. I still don't believe Iran is to be under estimated, a wounded animal is still dangerous but I don't think there is too much they can still do over there and we need to be on alert here at home as well.

I think the President has been very gracious with the attacks we've conducted, things could certainly be much worse over there and maybe that a sign of weakness for some but I believe when he says we can still hit with even more lethal force than we already have, so I think he's still holding on to a belief something will work out. That certain plans will fall into place, it just takes time or is taking more time than hoped or anticipated. Rome wasn't built in a day, but it was built.

[Hook#3287]

Jersey mike, I agree with everything you stated and want to emphasis 2 points.

President Trump is using all his resources to decapitate the leaders of Iran while doing as little damage to the structure and people of the country. He'll use patience as a tool as needed. But the leadership is a 2 headed monster, the religious fanatics and the political leaders.

To the mother that claimed her son didn't sign up for months long deployment w/o vacation, she should realize her son made that choice, where as in Russia or like commie countries, he would have been conscripted, never to be seen again.

Her son is probably pealing potatoes now.

[Willow]

The original stated objective was to destroy Iran's capability of developing a nuclear device.  That was accomplished early on.  The negotiations involved getting Iran to commit to not developing a nuclear weapon or long range missiles.  I'm not sure that was meaningful as getting a habitual liar to commit to anything is no guarantee.

Iran complicated things by introducing piracy at the strait. Perhaps the final result will be without agreement by Iran's leaders to simply state that if they do these things we will militarily respond with destruction.

It would be nice if the IRGC and Iran's government would collapse from within.

[Jersey mike]

The original stated objective was to destroy Iran's capability of developing a nuclear device.  That was accomplished early on.  The negotiations involved getting Iran to commit to not developing a nuclear weapon or long range missiles.  I'm not sure that was meaningful as getting a habitual liar to commit to anything is no guarantee.

Iran complicated things by introducing piracy at the strait. Perhaps the final result will be without agreement by Iran's leaders to simply state that if they do these things we will militarily respond with destruction.

It would be nice if the IRGC and Iran's government would collapse from within.

Yes sir you are correct with what you wrote.

[Jersey mike]

Jersey mike, I agree with everything you stated and want to emphasis 2 points.

President Trump is using all his resources to decapitate the leaders of Iran while doing as little damage to the structure and people of the country. He'll use patience as a tool as needed. But the leadership is a 2 headed monster, the religious fanatics and the political leaders.

To the mother that claimed her son didn't sign up for months long deployment w/o vacation, she should realize her son made that choice, where as in Russia or like commie countries, he would have been conscripted, never to be seen again.

Her son is probably pealing potatoes now.

While I'm not a fan of war, I believe for far too long too many enlisted in the military as an easy ride. Military operations happen. War does happen although I still do not believe what we are doing is an all out war compared to what we've been through as a nation. Iran is at war with us and has been although it could never have been on an escalated combat situation, they're a nation of terrorists...world wide bullies who try to inflict influence, pain and suffering on thier timeline.

I fully believe what has been said about their intentions of creating a North Korean game plan on a national missile umbrella to defend a nuclear program.

Today Iran announced they can see this economic crisis through for two years, did they show their cards? Maybe. It was said last week by one of their "leaders" maybe it's time to stop. Did they blink? That's also a maybe. Tie will tell. There can be no trusting them at any level and I think what I've said before to be even more true, other nations in the region are sick and tired of Iran and the stupid, foolish game they play. Iran has never (50 years) wanted an equal opportunity at the table of a world economy, they're want to rule the Middle East and have everyone beholden unto them and their ridiculous policies just as the Taliban wanted.

[F6Dave]

I read that traffic through Hormuz has been increasing for over a week. That began before the sanctions were announced, so something else must be at play.

This could change as it has so many times, but it's promising news. The SPR is very close to the point where oil can no longer be removed, and more oil from the gulf is badly needed.

[Jersey mike]

I read that traffic through Hormuz has been increasing for over a week. That began before the sanctions were announced, so something else must be at play.

This could change as it has so many times, but it's promising news. The SPR is very close to the point where oil can no longer be removed, and more oil from the gulf is badly needed.

Boy it's too bad there are closed refineries in California just sitting there.

Oil is down again.

Sometime recently I posted a the draw down of the SPR and plans to replenish in 2027 with (I believe) oil from Venezuela at some discounted rate.

[F6Dave]

California has set themselves up for a disaster. With all the closed refineries they're importing refined products from Asia. But since Hormuz affects mostly Asia, those refineries are keeping more for themselves. That's why Trump suspended the Jones Act, to let foreign tankers send oil from our gulf refineries to California via Panama.

These are just band aids. California inflicted this on themselves by passing laws that made refineries uneconomic. And now Chevron and others are talking about closing more California refineries.

Chevron began as Standard Oil of California. Exxon was Standard of New Jersey and Mobil was Standard of New York. Now they're all in Texas.

[F6Dave]

I read an analysis with examples of how economic sanctions have backfired in the past. I doubt it applies to Iran but the historical perspective is interesting.

In August, 1941 America stopped selling oil to Japan in response to their aggression. This infuriated Japan and contributed to their attack on Pearl Harbor. There are some eerie parallels between Iran and Japan, but I doubt Iran would attempt anything like Pearl Harbor or 911 with Trump in office.

Japan still needed oil for the war and turned to the Dutch East Indies, now Indonesia. This got my attention because I have a personal connection. My mom was born to Dutch parents in that country, and when Japan invaded they sent the Dutch to concentration camps. That included my mom. As a young teen she was separated from her family and spent 2 years in captivity. Her small 'family' (women only) included a dentist, and they were moved from camp to camp to work on the teeth of Japanese soldiers. That probably got them better treatment than the general population.

She talked about the brutal conditions as we were growing up and had a low opinion of anything Japanese for years. Later in life she wrote a book on the experience which I had published. It's unlikely Mom would have ended up in America if it weren't for that 1941 oil embargo, and the subsequent Japanese invasion of her homeland. And I wouldn't be here writing this.

Below is a picture of Mom and her brother with Krakatoa in the background. I sure took this thread off topic!

[Jersey mike]

There's been a saying or a quote that's been running through my head, but I couldn't quite get it right and then it finally hit me.

It's from one of the Godfather movies; "finance is a gun, politics is knowing when to pull the trigger." I'm beginning to think Sec.Bessent is an assassin.

[F6Dave]

I've read very little detail on the new sanctions but my initial impression is that they go easy on China. If that's true I don't see how they can be effective as China takes 80% of Iran's oil. But something else is going on that appears to be helping more than the sanctions.

Nations in the Persian Gulf like Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia are shipping more and more oil through Hormuz. They use their own tankers at night with transponders turned off. Then in the Gulf of Oman the oil is transferred to tankers that take it to market. The producing nation's tankers assume the risk others are unwilling to take. It's inefficient but at least the oil is getting to market. And with current prices the extra costs can be absorbed.

If enough money is at stake, people will always figure out a workaround to seemingly insurmountable barriers.

[Jersey mike]

The page below keeps a daily running tab on what's going on with Iran.

Today Sec. Bessent laid out how we were able to stop $1.8B in shadow banking networks.

" Treasury targets UAE bank over alleged $1.8B in transactions tied to Iranian networks"

It said that "under Operation Economic Outcast, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) proposed a rule that would revoke Banque Misr UAE's correspondent banking access to U.S. financial institutions."

"Treasury promised to sever every economic lifeline Tehran has left and finally end the threat of the Iranian regime," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. "We also warned that Iran's enablers cannot continue to enjoy access to the U.S. dollar and the global financial system. Banque Misr UAE decided to find out the hard way, and today, we are taking the first step in holding it accountable for its continued, egregious support of the Iranian regime."

The Treasury describes the UAE branch of the Egyptian bank as a "critical node" for Tehran's access to American dollars.

"Treasury estimates that between January 2024 and June 2026, Banque Misr UAE processed approximately $1.8 billion for 103 companies that are potentially part of Iranian shadow banking networks," it said. "Because Iran is already subject to comprehensive U.S. sanctions, in order to generate revenue abroad, it relies on multi-jurisdictional shadow banking networks that provide key access to U.S. dollar correspondent banking relationships.  Iran uses these shadow banking networks to launder funds, procure weapons, and bankroll its regional terrorist proxy groups."

"Banque Misr UAE's customers include apparent front companies used by Iran's Ministry of Defense and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to evade U.S. sanctions, as well as to launder money on behalf of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei," it also said.

The Treasury Department said its "Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Reza Mohammad Taeedi, the manager of Bank Melli's Dubai branch," on Friday, in addition to sanctioning "a Hong Kong-based front company that has helped launder funds for a sanctioned Iranian exchange house."


On that same page, it's noted earlier today Iran cried out;

" Iran claims US is unleashing 'economic terrorism' with new sanctions, urges countries to not comply"

Iran's Foreign Ministry released a statement claiming the Trump administration is launching "a new wave of economic terrorism" against Iran under Operation Economic Outcast.

"Economic sanctions by the United States against Iran, regardless of their name or title, are completely illegal and illegitimate actions that violate the United Nations Charter, international humanitarian law, and human rights," the statement read. "On this basis, all countries are obligated to refrain from implementing such sanctions."

"In continuation of its hostile and illegal policies against Iran, the U.S. government unveiled a new wave of economic terrorism under the title 'Operation Economic Outcast' against Iran on Monday... which amounts to U.S. state terrorism against Iran and the world," the statement added.

"While condemning U.S. economic terrorism, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes the determination of the Iranian nation to utilize all capacities to defend the homeland against military, economic, and hybrid aggression," it also said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that under President Donald Trump's direction, "the United States Treasury has begun Operation Economic Outcast – an unprecedented campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its enablers."

"Beginning today, the actions of Treasury and other agencies will tighten the noose and block every potential source of revenue that funds the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian regime. We are enforcing a zero-leakage approach," Bessent added. "There will be no minimal breathing space for the regime to rebuild its capacity to inflict terror against America and the world."


https://www.foxnews.com/category/politics/defense/wars/war-with-iran



Now will we be able to cut off every single source of revenue, I don't know. I don't know enough about banking and the routing of electronic commerce, for all I know maybe some regime loving U.S. residents are sending money via Western Union. From what I'm reading and hearing is Iran is the modern day leper and nobody wants to be a known associate. Sure Russia, China and a few others will use back channels to leave some gifts but not too many are openly stepping up to show support, that's why Iran needs to take to the western way of utilizing social media. I'll have to guess that next on the list for Iran would be some type of Go Fund Me page. I wonder if their morality police would object to running an Only Fans account(s) if it would bring in thousands of dollars??

[Jersey mike]

The President announced securing 65 billion barrels of oil reserves from Venezuela at no cost.

Don't knkw how that will actually work, so we'll have to wait and see.

If it's true, start pumping tomorrow. I think we're gonna need a lot of boats.


https://nypost.com/2026/08/28/us-news/trump-announces-biggest-oil-deal-in-world-history-with-venezuela/

President Trump announced a major agreement with Venezuela Friday that will allow the US to "more than double" its existing oil reserves– a move the commander-in-chief said will lower prices at the pump.

In a Truth Social post, Trump touted the agreement as "THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!"

"At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority US control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer," the president wrote.

[F6Dave]

Trump is stretching the truth as he does now and then. 

Owning reserves means you own the mineral rights. These are assets, just like a factory, hotel, or other minerals like copper, coal, or gold. They need to be reported to the government for tax and other purposes. In oil companies engineers and geologists (qualified reserves estimators) make detailed calculations to determine how much recoverable oil and gas lies beneath the surface of their owned acreage. In reality most oil can never be recovered and remains in the ground. I'm sure all of this is similar with other minerals.

The US is one of the very few countries that allow private ownership of mineral rights. I think only 3 other countries allow some private ownership, but they are all more limited than here in the US. In nearly the entire world, including all of Europe and Asia, the government owns the mineral rights. Venezuela is no exception. Their laws ban private and foreign ownership of reserves.

So even if the US now has controlling interest in some of Venezuela's oil fields, those could still be confiscated if the political winds shift. Just ask Exxon, who lost over $16 Billion 20 years ago.

Exxon still considers Venezuela 'uninvestable'. They haven't seen enough changes in the government to justify spending billions rebuilding the infrastructure the previous leadership nationalized and allowed to collapse into ruin. Chevron complied with Hugo Chavez's demands and remained, allowing them to keep their facilities functioning. That's given them the ability to ramp up production quickly. The same isn't true in much of the rest of the country.

[LadyDraco]

I paid $ 4.77 for 100% on Firday...
   Next week I'll have to fill 4 jugs for the farm .
Not looking forward to that..
  Still cheaper than carb rebuilds , I keep telling my self

[Jersey mike]

Trump is stretching the truth as he does now and then. 

Owning reserves means you own the mineral rights. These are assets, just like a factory, hotel, or other minerals like copper, coal, or gold. They need to be reported to the government for tax and other purposes. In oil companies engineers and geologists (qualified reserves estimators) make detailed calculations to determine how much recoverable oil and gas lies beneath the surface of their owned acreage. In reality most oil can never be recovered and remains in the ground. I'm sure all of this is similar with other minerals.

The US is one of the very few countries that allow private ownership of mineral rights. I think only 3 other countries allow some private ownership, but they are all more limited than here in the US. In nearly the entire world, including all of Europe and Asia, the government owns the mineral rights. Venezuela is no exception. Their laws ban private and foreign ownership of reserves.

So even if the US now has controlling interest in some of Venezuela's oil fields, those could still be confiscated if the political winds shift. Just ask Exxon, who lost over $16 Billion 20 years ago.

Exxon still considers Venezuela 'uninvestable'. They haven't seen enough changes in the government to justify spending billions rebuilding the infrastructure the previous leadership nationalized and allowed to collapse into ruin. Chevron complied with Hugo Chavez's demands and remained, allowing them to keep their facilities functioning. That's given them the ability to ramp up production quickly. The same isn't true in much of the rest of the country.

And this is good to know how these things work

How this plays out is yet to be seen, however if someone like Maduro comes back into power, we now have a purpose to step in and defend what's ours, something wecound not do just for Exxon or other companies. That might be why Hegseth and DOW was involved. Just where in Venezuela these areas are located we've secured rights to would be good to knkw. Another reason DOW was involved.

Apparently the crude we import from Canada is of similar grade oil so reports are this could change the scope of trade with Canada down the road.

The wheels of progress have begun to turn, unfortunately it does that time to build momentum.

This also goes back some months ago with his whole premise of working for the betterment of our hemisphere and his so-called Donroe Doctrine. More available oil to us, even if just on paper for the time being is an asset.


Was in Arlington,VA over the weekend to,visit my son and we paid $3.84 for regular (87) at Exxon. Diesel was about $5.15 I think.

[Hook#3287]

Oil rights, or whatever President Trump and his administration did with Venezuela is a "down the road" very positive action for all of the Western Hemisphere, except maybe Canada.

Competition from Venezuela in a market Canada has most control, will not bid well for our northern neighbors.  I feel Canada has substantially increased its production of oil while not having the competition from Venezuela over the last 20 years or so. Just MHO.

The problem with the long term investment into Venezuela is the American Public has no foresight and will vote on their shortsighted selfish concerns as they fill their gas tanks.

[Jersey mike]

Oil rights, or whatever President Trump and his administration did with Venezuela is a "down the road" very positive action for all of the Western Hemisphere, except maybe Canada.

Competition from Venezuela in a market Canada has most control, will not bid well for our northern neighbors.  I feel Canada has substantially increased its production of oil while not having the competition from Venezuela over the last 20 years or so. Just MHO.

The problem with the long term investment into Venezuela is the American Public has no foresight and will vote on their shortsighted selfish concerns as they fill their gas tanks.

Yes.

And as someone just said on Fox Business, this move with Venezuela (does or should completely) freezes out China from our area and cheap oil they were getting out of Venezuela. More chess moves? Seems that way imo.

[F6Dave]

I'm very optimistic about Venezuela. The capture has played out extremely well. I'm just not as optimistic about the timeline as Trump. He'd like to see the agreement bring gas prices down before the election, but that's not very likely.

Regarding mineral rights vs. reserves, I think of it this way. Mineral rights are an asset. Reserves quantify how much of that asset you own.

Since the US is one of only 4 nations that allow private ownership of mineral rights, we are one of the very few places on earth where you can completely own land. Not just what sits on the surface, but the water and minerals that lie below.

Too many people take property rights for granted. They shouldn't. The founders realized how important they are to making us truly free. It's not a coincidence that Mamdani wants to seize ownership of apartment buildings in NYC. It's part of the communist playbook.

[Jersey mike]

I'm very optimistic about Venezuela. The capture has played out extremely well. I'm just not as optimistic about the timeline as Trump. He'd like to see the agreement bring gas prices down before the election, but that's not very likely.

Regarding mineral rights vs. reserves, I think of it this way. Mineral rights are an asset. Reserves quantify how much of that asset you own.

Since the US is one of only 4 nations that allow private ownership of mineral rights, we are one of the very few places on earth where you can completely own land. Not just what sits on the surface, but the water and minerals that lie below.

Too many people take property rights for granted. They shouldn't. The founders realized how important they are to making us truly free. It's not a coincidence that Mamdani wants to seize ownership of apartment buildings in NYC. It's part of the communist playbook.

It's harder than most understand to unravel what's been the norm of oil dependence from the Middle East for many many decades, including the shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now suddenly Iran sees that slipping through their fingers. Their so-called ownership of the area and the supposed power they believe they hold or held. IMO they had every intention at some point in time to inflict economic pain but we jumped the timeline to our advantage and put the timetable on our side.

There was a time awhile back in this thread of posts I mentioned it would be great if our government could take control of a refinery (a long term lease or make it a military base of some sort) in California under some sort of government regulation that California cannot touch. I think it would be great if we could somehow train our military (army corps of engineers and/or Seabees) to operate such a facility. One place our government should not need to worry about or depend on is the right fuels for our military, if we could be self sufficient in that area it would be a big feather in our caps.

[F6Dave]

I don't think the government should get into the refinery business! But I understand your point. California has set itself up for failure, and the people are paying the price.

It's interesting to watch the states that set impossible mandates to end hydrocarbon use by a certain date. With those dates fast approaching it is becoming clear that the mandates were based on green fantasies that won't work. New York mandated things like heat pumps in all new construction under 6 stories by (I think) 2030. But the technology doesn't exist yet so they're not enforcing the law. The environmentalists took them to court and the judge ruled quite sensibly: either enforce the law or change it. So the government is in a real bind. They have to change a law and anger their green supporters, or mandate the impossible. They asked for this.

[Jersey mike]

I don't think the government should get into the refinery business! But I understand your point. California has set itself up for failure, and the people are paying the price.

Not really in the refinery "business" but refining what our military uses.

How feasible I have no idea. We have huge military presence in California and the west, what could a refinery help supply with out there. Jet/aircraft fuel, fuel for navy. Gasoline or diesel. With refineries sitting unused it's a shame to not have them producing something at least for military service.

A fast search shows the U.S. military rate of fuel consumption;

Daily: 340K barrels
Monthly; 10.2M barrels
Yearly; 123M barrels

That's from DuckDuckGo AI assist. Prior to the current Iran conflict.

[scooperhsd]

California drove the refinery operators out of the state with their overburdensome regulations. Going to be interesting to see how petroleum prices on products is affected by having to import their "California spec" fuels .

[ridingron]

California drove the refinery operators out of the state with their overburdensome regulations. Going to be interesting to see how petroleum prices on products is affected by having to import their "California spec" fuels .

I wouldn't "go easy" on them. They would be charged for every additional cost and none of the cost would be spread across the board.

[Jersey mike]

$4.18 https://dedicatedissues.com/the-mainstream-media-is-already-trying-to-poke-holes-in-trumps-venezuelan-oil-deal-but-theyre-missing-the-bigger-picture/#google_vignette for regular (87) at 3 neighborhood stations this morning. Diesel was $5.85 ? I think.


If anyone is interested, the link below has a 10 minute video with (whether or not anyone likes Glenn that's up to them) Glenn Beck breaking down the agreement with Venezuela. The video could have been a couple minutes shorter but overall not bad.

https://dedicatedissues.com/the-mainstream-media-is-already-trying-to-poke-holes-in-trumps-venezuelan-oil-deal-but-theyre-missing-the-bigger-picture/#google_vignette

[Hook#3287]

As a building official, I see a lot of heat pump installs in rehab and new construction is now about 90% electrical heat sourced.

Some gas and no oil.

My state has pretty much mandated electrical use for home heating through the energy codes, which is a huge problem coming up.

So because of this, solid fuel (wood, coal, pellet) appliances are being installed, as well as gas fired generators.

Totally compromising any carbon footprint minuses that may have been gained.

State commissions and politicians are forcing electrical heat on us while outlawing conventional heat source.

It's probably going to come to a head with citizens finding work around or ignoring new regulations.

When I hear people complaining about their choices being taken away or the cost of compliance and use, I just say.

" Keep voting Democrat"

I can tell the ones that do, they just stop and stare into space.

[F6Dave]

In the UK they actually burn wood pellets to generate electricity. There's some crazy theory that because of the relatively short life cycle of trees, the CO2 from burning wood somehow doesn't count. I think they buy the pellets from the SE US and ship them across the Atlantic.

Regarding heat pumps, I read that while they're widely available for residential purposes, that's not the case for larger commercial buildings. Which is why New York's mandate isn't being enforced. I could be wrong about that.

[F6Dave]

Colorado banned nearly all new gas water heaters and furnaces at the beginning of the year. Current stock was exempted, so stores stocked up. Here's a Lowes around Christmas.

[Hook#3287]

Massachusetts gets 65% of its electricity from natural gas, with nuclear being the second largest source. Yet the legislation continues to restrict gas fired residential applications.

Solar and wind produce less than 10% together, but are growing due to state mandates and subsidies.

I'm all for solar, behind the meter.  That makes individual systems on homes very usefull as a accessory power source, not the primary, and if a battery is included, even better.  Less need for a fuel fired generator.  Well, for a day or two, anyways, depending on demand. Maybe longer if the sun is shining.

Then you have the systems that are attached to the grid, that during black outs, the grid can take your battery stored power. That would send me into the stratosphere.

Point being, it's all a money grab. From the large scale solar and wind companies, the small residential solar companies, the Chinese factories churning the panels and wind turbines  out w/o environmental oversight, the so called carbon credit BS.

And the voting politicians ramming policy and laws through to nail down campaign contributions.

And the public being sold a bill of goods that renewables are the way forward.

Their not, not yet, their accessory at best.

And for those who claim solar and wind  "Green", their also not. When you consider all aspects of manufacturing, shipping , install, maintenance, then decommissioning, I'd bet any gains are voided.

Of course, then there's the thought of if any of this is even better for the "environment "

You'd have to subscribe to the "Man made carbon is warming the planet" theory, which, in MHO, the juries still out.

On the original topic, I paid $3.89 for 97 this week.

[F6Dave]

People don't talk about the waste from decommissioned wind turbines and solar panels enough. Those massive blades wear out in a decade or two. They can't be recycled and are cut up and stacked in landfills, many of which are beginning to refuse the things. Solar panels are no better. This stuff isn't 'green'. Far from it.

[F6Dave]

I saw an oil company exec on TV the other day. They were talking about the refinery mismatch in the US, where most of our refineries were built for the heavy that used to dominate American production, but don't handle the light crude from shale wells as well.

One reason is that most of our refineries have extra facilities to break down the heavy crude, so refining light crude under-utilizes that expensive equipment. But the bigger reason is diesel (including jet fuel and heating oil). Light crude produces too much gasoline and too little diesel. And with the wars in Ukraine and Iran, many refineries that produce diesel are damaged and/or shut down.

Diesel prices are at an all time high and shortages are appearing around the globe. Refineries that remain online are working to produce as much diesel as possible.

[F6Dave]

Of all the nations that export through Hormuz, Qatar has been hit hardest. Their products, like liquified natural gas (they're the #2 producer) and chemicals like ammonia for fertilizer are more difficult to ship, and facilities have been heavily damaged. Nearly nothing has made it through.

But I just read that three LNG tankers made the trip, then transferred the cargo to ships waiting near Oman. This is how oil has been getting through, where a few tankers willing to take the risk (for huge $$$) travel Hormuz at night with transponders off, then pump the oil into tankers that take it to global markets.

This is much more difficult with LNG, where the stuff has to be kept at minus 162C to stay liquified. But where there's a will (and enough money) there's a way.

Europe and Asia are currently paying $25 for a million BTU of natural gas. Here in the US we pay less than $3.

[old2soon]

    MORE same ol same ol! Went to West Plains Mo.today had breakfast with a Friend and I NEEDED gas in the cage. Up until Mon and Tues this week it wuz hovering right around $3.80. Last night coming back with another Friend from supper most places in W P was right @ $4.00! One place wuz still @3.80 til this mornin and they'd jumped up to $4.00 like everyone else.  Soooo took a detour and went to Murphy U S A @ wally wurld in W P. Tada and surprise urprise!    wally wurld wuz @3.78 a gal!    Duz I gotta tell ya Where I filled up?? Yuppers didn't think I did!    RIDE SAFE.