Electoral Math

[Daddie O]

Although many on this board would like to think otherwise, it is not looking very likely that Trump wins the presidency.  Here is why:  Electoral College math.

In 2008 Mitt Romney got trounced by Barack Obama 332-206
In 2004 John McCain got beat by even more 365-173

For Trump to win he is going to have to keep all the states that Romney won, plus find another 64 electoral votes from somewhere.  It's looking like there is a good chance he could lose Arizona after all his anti-Mexican comments too.

Even if Trump won every place that Romney did, including Arizona, and say he picks up Pennsylvania (not likely), Virginia, and Florida (not likely)...he still loses.

In fact it is not only likely that Hillary wins by a landslide, but it is likely that Republicans lose control of the Senate as well since people tend to vote for party down the whole ticket.

[Pappy!]

And can you honestly say that you think Hillary is the answer? 

[The emperor has no clothes]

And can you honestly say that you think Hillary is the answer? 

I won't answer that for Daddie O, but what he was describing is the nuts and bolts of winning the election. If Trump wants to win he is going to have to win more states, simple math. As of now the only way I can see that happening is if Clinton gets indicted. Which is entirely possible. As a side note, I don't understand his strategy of trashing the Governor of N.M. because she hasn't endorsed him.  ???

[Oss]

Romney did not fight for himself, Trump will be on the offensive you can take that to the bank

If Hillary is under indictment.............  the media will have no choice to run the story every day as its news

I would not be so quick to assume hispanic citizens will vote Hillary

[scooperhsd]

And can you honestly say that you think Hillary is the answer? 

I don't quite think that is what he meant...

He's Just pointing out that Trump will have a hard road winning the general election.


I might be tempted to vote for "None of the above"...

[Valkorado]

You just might be surprised this time.  Trump will bring people out of the woodwork that Romney didn't appeal to.  And, Trump isn't neutered like Mitt was.

Hillary should be in an orange jumpsuit for decades.

[The emperor has no clothes]

You just might be surprised this time.  Trump will bring people out of the woodwork that Romney didn't appeal to.  And, Trump isn't neutered like Mitt was.

Hillary should be in an orange jumpsuit for decades.

Maybe, but that could work both ways. He might bring out a lot of people in opposition also.

[Moonshot_1]

The lay of the land won't truly be known until after both Political conventions.
Right now the Democrats have an internal battle on their hands they could not have possibly expected with the showing that Sanders has had. While Mrs. Clinton is sure to win the nomination on the Super Delegates the popular votes for Sanders surely shows a rift in the Democrat support for Mrs. Clinton.
The Democrat convention should be an interesting affair.

I expect the Republican Convention to be a love fest of sorts as Trump wins the nomination and the party coalesces around him. This is about marketing and the selling of ideas and Trump has the edge on that.

Personally, I see Trump winning big. Polls are showing trending towards Trump.

But how the parties market their candidates after the convention will tell the tale.

I also see a possibility of Mrs. Clinton dropping out due to the various "scandals" that are falling upon her like a hailstorm from hell. The State Dept. kinda threw her under a bus this week. Can't blame the GOP for that one.

[MP]

Trump has a LOT of support in Rust Belt states, that normally go Dem.  I think this one is totally up in the air.  It is a LONG time until election, and a LOT of Hillarys secrets and past is going to be on display.  

The big unknown is the electorate.  Look at the support Bernie has.  Like Trump, an outsider.  I know Bernie has been in politics, but he has done essentially nothing his whole career.

Both are anti establishment.  I think there are a LOT of voters who will vote AGAINST establishment this time.  If it is Trump/Hillary, Trump is the outsider.  I cannot hardly think of anyone MORE establishment than her.

And, of course, there is always that jail thingy.

[Rams]

You just might be surprised this time.  Trump will bring people out of the woodwork that Romney didn't appeal to.  And, Trump isn't neutered like Mitt was.

Hillary should be in an orange jumpsuit for decades.

Maybe, but that could work both ways. He might bring out a lot of people in opposition also.

I agree with both of the above posts.   I also agree that Trump has some major hills to climb, not that it can't be done but, he's facing some very steep slopes.    I won't be surprised if Hilary wins, her party represents way too much free stuff that might go away if she doesn't win.   Those on the receiving end won't vote for Trump and that's a bunch of people.   They don't care if she's a liar, a cheat, a thief or, a very bad choice, just as long as they keep getting their free stuff and someone else is paying for it.   There's a lot of people out there getting free stuff......  

I don't believe the Senate will fall into Harry's hands, he's screwed up so much, he's leaving anyway and I think the Senate will stay static.   The House, I'm not so sure of.

[The emperor has no clothes]

The lay of the land won't truly be known until after both Political conventions.
Right now the Democrats have an internal battle on their hands they could not have possibly expected with the showing that Sanders has had. While Mrs. Clinton is sure to win the nomination on the Super Delegates the popular votes for Sanders surely shows a rift in the Democrat support for Mrs. Clinton.
The Democrat convention should be an interesting affair.

I expect the Republican Convention to be a love fest of sorts as Trump wins the nomination and the party coalesces around him. This is about marketing and the selling of ideas and Trump has the edge on that.

Personally, I see Trump winning big. Polls are showing trending towards Trump.

But how the parties market their candidates after the convention will tell the tale.

I also see a possibility of Mrs. Clinton dropping out due to the various "scandals" that are falling upon her like a hailstorm from hell. The State Dept. kinda threw her under a bus this week. Can't blame the GOP for that one.

I think quite the opposite. This email scandal is completely of her making. No one threw her anywhere.

[Crackerborn]

I find neither presumed candidate for President a viable option.

Elvis for President.

And as little as I want to agree with Daddy-o, his explanation of electoral collage math is correct. Here in my little corner of this Banana Republic, I will be voting for conservative candidates on the local level including the current House Speaker. Despite Fox and several other national outlet hopes, he will carry his district since the presumed opposition (endorsed by Ms Palin) seems to court the left wing socialistic whack jobs and the conservative base here is well aware of this.

[therapist]

The main thing that will stop Trump, is his unedited, often outrageous statements.
If he would have toned it down after knocking off the other people in the primary, he may have had a chance. But, almost every day, he says something new to alienate another segment of the voting public.
He is, indeed, his own worst enemy.

[Daddie O]

And can you honestly say that you think Hillary is the answer? 

Hillary is the answer if the question is, "Who is likely the next President of the United States?"

Honestly, I'd prefer Bernie

[MP]

And can you honestly say that you think Hillary is the answer? 

Hillary is the answer if the question is, "Who is likely the next President of the United States?"

Honestly, I'd prefer Bernie

Why am I not shocked?  Just need a lot more free chit.  And, add massively to the debt. But, hey, it's FREE!

[Pete]

McCain was a lost cause from the very beginning and anyone with any intelligence knew it.
Romney basically gave away his chance at winning by trying to play MR nice guy.

Neither excited their voters.

As for the two front runners now who knows. This election is shaping up to be very different from past elections, so their will be a few surprises for us all.

And the surprises will probably decide the election.

Past elections observations will not be good indicators of what will happen in this election.

[G-Man]

He is, indeed, his own worst enemy.

Yet everyday he is climbing in the polls.

I'm loving all of the "Trump will this, or Trump will that......"  Everything Trump has done got him the nomination (probably).  The talking heads, on both sides, have guessed wrong on Trump at every turn, with every statement, with every gesture, etc.  Every time was supposed to finally be his demise and every time, everyone was wrong.  And every day his numbers go a little higher and her number go a little lower.

Not attacking your post T, just an observation. 



Oh, BTW, Clinton lied to the parents of dead soldiers. 

[Roadog]

He is, indeed, his own worst enemy.

Yet everyday he is climbing in the polls.

I'm loving all of the "Trump will this, or Trump will that......"  Everything Trump has done got him the nomination (probably).  The talking heads, on both sides, have guessed wrong on Trump at every turn, with every statement, with every gesture, etc.  Every time was supposed to finally be his demise and every time, everyone was wrong.  And every day his numbers go a little higher and her number go a little lower.

Not attacking your post T, just an observation. 



Oh, BTW, Clinton lied to the parents of dead soldiers. 

  VERY true.

Roadog

[Patrick]

I too don't see anyone throwing hillary under any bus or any other manner of transportation. She did it to herself. I find it interesting what the State Dept keeps finding, its taken long enough.
But, I'm still hopeful the Dept and FBI will be indicating her just before the convention.
With all the pardons our president has been passing out recently, it should be interesting.

[Serk]

For anyone who tracks the election odds and wants an interesting spin on it that historically has been very accurate, give this site a look see:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

They distill the odds from bookies and how people are actually betting into percentage changes of who's gonna win what.

(Right now it's got Hillary winning with 63.9% odds vs. Trump at 29.6% with others as dark horse possibilities.)

Anyway, give the site a look, keep it open in a tab, it refreshes often. Interesting to watch the trending.

[Patrick]

Bernie supporters ?  Sure, why not.  Whats another $19 trillion of debt. Your grandkids will thank you for saddling them with $38 trillion of debt.

Democratic Socialism, just take a good look at how thats working. But why, facts don't mean much to some.

[The emperor has no clothes]

For anyone who tracks the election odds and wants an interesting spin on it that historically has been very accurate, give this site a look see:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

They distill the odds from bookies and how people are actually betting into percentage changes of who's gonna win what.

(Right now it's got Hillary winning with 63.9% odds vs. Trump at 29.6% with others as dark horse possibilities.)

Anyway, give the site a look, keep it open in a tab, it refreshes often. Interesting to watch the trending.

Thanks for the link.  I especially liked the VP odds.

[Wizzard]

Although many on this board would like to think otherwise, it is not looking very likely that Trump wins the presidency.  Here is why:  Electoral College math.

In 2008 Mitt Romney got trounced by Barack Obama 332-206
In 2004 John McCain got beat by even more 365-173

For Trump to win he is going to have to keep all the states that Romney won, plus find another 64 electoral votes from somewhere.  It's looking like there is a good chance he could lose Arizona after all his anti-Mexican comments too.

Even if Trump won every place that Romney did, including Arizona, and say he picks up Pennsylvania (not likely), Virginia, and Florida (not likely)...he still loses.

In fact it is not only likely that Hillary wins by a landslide, but it is likely that Republicans lose control of the Senate as well since people tend to vote for party down the whole ticket.

And you are a Prophet now?

[f6john]

 Daddie O's facts are correct and would be even more convincing if this were a more traditional election year but it's not. Wife of a former President running for office and telling us her husband will be put in charge of the economy. A billionaire who doesn't care to call a spade a spade. Former secretary of state that left a diplomat unprotected in a violent country even though multiple requests for additional security went unanswered or at best unfulfilled and said diplomat was murdered along with others. And then she lied about it and sent others out to promote the lie. A billionaire who confesses to not being a politician and has never held any elected office. A career politician who can't blow Bernie out of the saddle. A billionaire who has received more primary votes than any previous candidate.

You can look at this as good or bad, true or false but you have to admit we are plowing new ground this election cycle.

[The emperor has no clothes]

Daddie O's facts are correct and would be even more convincing if this were a more traditional election year but it's not. Wife of a former President running for office and telling us her husband will be put in charge of the economy. A billionaire who doesn't care to call a spade a spade. Former secretary of state that left a diplomat unprotected in a violent country even though multiple requests for additional security went unanswered or at best unfulfilled and said diplomat was murdered along with others. And then she lied about it and sent others out to promote the lie. A billionaire who confesses to not being a politician and has never held any elected office. A career politician who can't blow Bernie out of the saddle. A billionaire who has received more primary votes than any previous candidate.

You can look at this as good or bad, true or false but you have to admit we are plowing new ground this election cycle.

Yes we are. No doubt about it.