Possible military coup in Turkey?

[Serk]

Seeing murmurs of a military coup in Turkey...

Definitely interesting times we're living in.

(Will update with confirmation or refutation as I find it.)

https://twitter.com/PieroCastellano

https://twitter.com/WashingtonPoint/status/754035781673463808

[Jess from VA]

The Turkish military are the keepers of democracy, and of religion out of government.  In 1960, and again in 1980, the coups were widely acclaimed as a good thing by the Turkish people.

I wish them good luck with any endeavor.

[The emperor has no clothes]

The Turkish military are the keepers of democracy, and of religion out of government.  In 1960, and again in 1980, the coups were widely acclaimed as a good thing by the Turkish people.

I wish them good luck with any endeavor.

I understand the sentiment . But it seems wrong to have the will of the people usurped by the military. Even if it might be for the greater good.

[Jess from VA]

In 1960 and 1980 the coups were overwhelmingly supported by the people.

Each time the military took over, and immediately set about restoring order, and after a reasonable time, restoring elections and democratic rule.  They never intended to retain power, and never had to be forced to relinquish power. 

We always tend to see things from our own perspective, but Turkey has been crippled with a Too Many Party system for a long time, so the alleged will of the people can be like 15%.   

We don't always get what we vote for.

As President, Erdoğan has been a strong advocate of an executive presidency that would boost his own powers and has maintained an active influence over political affairs despite the symbolic nature of his office. In 2016, he was accused of forcing the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu due to his scepticism over the proposed presidential system, resulting in his replacement by close ally Binali Yıldırım. He has also come under fire for constructing Ak Saray, the world's largest palace on Atatürk Forest Farm and Zoo for his own use as President and has been repeatedly accused of breaching the constitutional terms of his office by not maintaining political neutrality. In 2015, amid consistent allegations that he maintained financial links with Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant militants, revelations that the state was supplying arms to militant groups in Syria in the 2014 National Intelligence Organisation lorry scandal led to accusations of high treason.[8][9][10] Erdoğan's failed peace negotiations with Kurdish rebels and lax security policies against ISIL have been consistently blamed for the sharp rise in terrorist incidents in Turkey since 2015.[11]

Nationwide protests against the perceived authoritarianism of Erdoğan's government began in May 2013, with the internationally criticised police crackdown resulting in 22 deaths and the stalling of EU membership negotiations. Following a split with long-time ally Fethullah Gülen, Erdoğan brought about large-scale judicial reforms that were criticised for threatening judicial independence. A US$100 billion government corruption scandal in 2013 led to the arrests of Erdoğan's close allies, with Erdoğan himself incriminated after a recording was released on social media.[12][13][14] Erdoğan's government has since come under fire for electoral fraud, demeaning the Constitution, alleged human rights violations and crackdown on press and social media, having blocked access to Twitter, Facebook and YouTube on numerous occasions.[15][16][17][18] Opposition journalists and politicians have thus branded him a "dictator" 

[Serk]

Looks like the murmors I'd heard earlier are confirmed:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-15/turkish-premier-says-elements-of-army-attempt-to-seize-power


And a side note, I've always found an interesting dichotomy between Turkey's fierce pride in being a secular nation and having a crescent moon on their flag...

[The emperor has no clothes]

"We always tend to view things from our own perspective "
Guilty as charged 

[Serk]

"Incirlik Air Base and outlying bases ordered to Force Protection Condition DELTA"

Jess, if you can reply to that without pulling a Hillary, does that sound like a generic "Be careful" or something more serious?



Edit - I looked it up on Wikipedia

"FPCON DELTA describes a situation when a terrorist attack is taking place or has just occurred in the immediate area. FPCON Delta usually occurs only in the areas that are most vulnerable to or have been attacked. One notable example of a general FPCON Delta was directly following the September 11, 2001 attacks, when all military installations were placed at FPCON Delta and restricted to only military personnel. Force Protection Level I Antiterrorism Training defines FPCON Delta as: FPCON Delta applies when a terrorist attack has occurred or when intelligence indicates imminent terrorist action against a specific location. FPCON Delta is normally declared as a localized warning. The installation moves to a high state of alert, and mandatory security measures are implemented. Commanders are also authorized and encouraged to supplement mandatory security measures. FPCON Delta may cause delayed or canceled mission activities. You can expect delays and interruptions to daily routines."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_Protection_Condition

[therapist]

This puts the U.S. in a difficult position. The coup might make for a more "real" democratic government, but there is a rule that we can't cooperate with a take over group of a NATO nation.

2016 has been anything but boring. 

I miss, boring.   

[Atl-Jerry]

I had a NATO assignment to Izmir back in the mid 70's that was cancelled before I departed.  It was a great assignment for a scuba diver.  Unfortunately a few months later I pulled one to Shemya, the sphincter of the world.     

[Skinhead]

We don't always get what we vote for.
                          Ubummer
As President, Erdoğan has been a strong advocate of an executive presidency that would boost his own powers and has maintained an active influence over political affairs despite the symbolic nature of his office. He has also come under fire for constructing Ak Saray, the world's largest palace on Atatürk Forest Farm and Zoo for his own use as President and has been repeatedly accused of breaching the constitutional terms of his office by not maintaining political neutrality. In 2015, amid consistent allegations that he maintained financial links with Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant militants, revelations that the state was supplying arms to militant groups in Syria in the 2014 Fast and Furious, IRS, and Bemghanzi scandal led to accusations of high treason.[8][9][10] Erdoğan's obummer's failed peace negotiations with Kurdish rebels and lax security policies against ISIL have been consistently blamed for the sharp rise in terrorist incidents in Turkey western society since 2015.[11]

See if you can spot the changes.....

[The emperor has no clothes]

I had a NATO assignment to Izmir back in the mid 70's that was cancelled before I departed.  It was a great assignment for a scuba diver.  Unfortunately a few months later I pulled one to Shemya, the sphincter of the world.     

Oh man, I guess so ! If its any solace, they closed it up a while back.  

This puts the U.S. in a difficult position. The coup might make for a more "real" democratic government, but there is a rule that we can't cooperate with a take over group of a NATO nation.

2016 has been anything but boring.  

I miss, boring.  

There is something to be said for boring.  

[..]

Istanbul is very secular.

Ankara the capital is very pro Muslim as is a large percentage of the countries rural population.

In Istanbul tanks are being greeted.

In Ankara tanks are being resisted.

Erdogan has fled the country.

[Jess from VA]

Serk, US bases are "sheltering in place."  I assess little to no risk to US personnel, regardless of outcome.

Note all US bases are Turkish bases, with Turkish troops guarding the gates and perimeter.  There are large contingent of SPs at Incirlik AB, but they will stand down, unless......

The Zero, as expected, immediately came down in favor of Erdogan, which is the wrong side of the issue for both the Turkish people, and US interests (not in weeks and months, but over time a restoration of democracy in Turkey can only benefit the US, and all of NATO).  He should have kept his mouth shut.  If the coup succeeds, he has once again stepped on his dick.

I also find it noteworthy, and completely expected that MSNBC and CNN are spinning the coup as a bad thing, while FOX is solidly behind the coup, and for good and well stated reasons.  They have a commentator that knows the country, it's history and politics, and he is pitching all straight up information.

The note above regarding similarities of Erdogan and Zero are very well founded.  Wanabee totalitarian rulers.

Watching what is on TV is exceedingly limited in scope, and nearly worthless.  

It may be with the senior purges of military over the last years, this coup is being run from the middle (more junior officers)of the military, and they appear to have dropped the ball on a number of important things, like grabbing Erdogan at the very start, taking control of all media, and a number of other things.  

Erdogan was able to address the people from his cell phone over national television and it is having an impact.  He is reported to have just landed in Istanbul.

The coup is looking like a long shot, but nothing will be really known until at least tomorrow or the next day.  

If it fails, many heads will roll, there will be a big crackdown, and democracy in Turkey will be history.  It is opined that Erdogan already has more journalists in jail than any other country.

And I ask you, when did I ever pull a Hillary????      (well, I do like big boobs)

[Serk]

Thanks for the comments Jess... (Sincerely)

Looks like Erdogan is back in Istanbul and being surrounded by adoring crowds...

Wonder if he'll go full Sharia after this (Assuming he fully gets the coup quashed)

[Jess from VA]

He would not go full sharia..... the noose and firing squad will suffice.

Of course a failed coup is so much worse for the people than no coup at all.

[The emperor has no clothes]

He would not go full sharia..... the noose and firing squad will suffice.

Of course a failed coup is so much worse for the people than no coup at all.

It doesn't appear the coup organizers were very organized.

[Jess from VA]

He would not go full sharia..... the noose and firing squad will suffice.

Of course a failed coup is so much worse for the people than no coup at all.

It doesn't appear the coup organizers were very organized.

That's what I said.

[The emperor has no clothes]

He would not go full sharia..... the noose and firing squad will suffice.

Of course a failed coup is so much worse for the people than no coup at all.

It doesn't appear the coup organizers were very organized.

That's what I said.

I guess I was agreeing with you in my Neanderthal way. 

[Serk]

As far as going full Sharia, I don't mean against the coup leaders, but in general... Isn't he rather Islamist? Kinda wondering if he'll fell empowered to move the country in a less secular direction overall if he indeed makes it through this...

[..]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3692693/Turkish-military-launch-attempted-coup-depose-government.html

[Jess from VA]

As far as going full Sharia, I don't mean against the coup leaders, but in general... Isn't he rather Islamist? Kinda wondering if he'll fell empowered to move the country in a less secular direction overall if he indeed makes it through this...

I do not think he is an ISSL sharia type (stoning, beheading, marrying 6 year olds), but he is inclined to a return to the Ottoman Empire Dictator style of rule.  He called the coup a gift from God, which I don't take as a positive thing at all.  He will feel empowered to increase his dictatorship, and slide democracy to the sidelines, quicker than ever.  And the more popular acclaim he gets out of this, the quicker it will go. 

I would see the civil service side of govt and courts and administration going on as usual, not replaced by clerics.... but democracy, freedom of speech/press, and personal liberty will suffer.  This aspect of Turkish Govt (rooted in Ottoman history) has often been compared to the complex and confusing apparatchik of the old soviet union (it was certainly baffling to an American lawyer).  And remember, even Lenin and his communist revolution (and blood) ended up leaving the apparatchik mostly in place; no one knew how to replace it with anything that worked.   

Interestingly he is considered a populist from the Turkish point of view.  His conservatism and devoutness is loved by the rural/agricultural folk, who would likely see little difference in their daily lives under anyone's rule.  They live peacefully in a manner much the same for centuries.  They are devout muslims, but the kindest, most polite and generous people you could ever meet.  And the whole country is fiercely patriotic.  Which gets us back to the too many parties problem. 

Also, I guess I misspoke earlier; I heard tonight that he was elected with nearly 50% of the popular vote, several times, despite the many parties. 

[Rams]

Well, that party doesn't appear to have worked out the way the planners wanted.......  

No, I was not involved.

But, it does make me wonder when this is going to happen within our own country.  

And, no again.   I'm not advocating, involved or planning any such activities, it just won't surprise me when it happens.

[The emperor has no clothes]

Well, that party doesn't appear to have worked out the way the planners wanted.......  

No, I was not involved.

But, it does make me wonder when this is going to happen within our own country.  

And, no again.   I'm not advocating, involved or planning any such activities, it just won't surprise me when it happens.

It would surprise me. I for one don't want the military in charge of our government.

[..]

Well, that party doesn't appear to have worked out the way the planners wanted.......  

No, I was not involved.

But, it does make me wonder when this is going to happen within our own country.  

And, no again.   I'm not advocating, involved or planning any such activities, it just won't surprise me when it happens.

The way this federal govt has been getting rid of "The Generals" it's unlikely many would be on the "revolutionary" side.

Vlad even just canned his top 50 navy guys for not obeying orders.

[..]

And then there's this. Sound familiar?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/turkish-soldier-beheaded-pro-government-8433319

[Rams]

Well, that party doesn't appear to have worked out the way the planners wanted.......  

No, I was not involved.

But, it does make me wonder when this is going to happen within our own country.  

And, no again.   I'm not advocating, involved or planning any such activities, it just won't surprise me when it happens.

The way this federal govt has been getting rid of "The Generals" it's unlikely many would be on the "revolutionary" side.

Vlad even just canned his top 50 navy guys for not obeying orders.

Just who do you think would be leading such an event?   The Obama Administration has already identified "old school" Veterans as potential threats and dangerous individuals.    That's not the term they used but close enough for "government work".    Can you imagine a better reason to have more gun control?   There's a lot of hate and distrust for the current leadership in Washington within the Pentagon and the military as a whole.     Again, I'm not advocating this.   A couple of hundred years ago, some independent and patriot Americans stood up and said, enough is enough.   It will happen again.

[Serk]

Erdogan has already rounded up thousands (!?) of unloyal judges, officers, etc...

It's almost as if he had an action list ready to go.

That coup sure was quashed quickly and easily.

*Adjusts tinfoil hat*

It's almost as if he staged the coup against himself to give him cover for a full blown purge and crackdown of opposition...

[Jess from VA]

That conspiracy idea of his own coup has already been discussed in the news.

2700 judges fired, give or take.  Seems doubtful they were in the streets with the military.  Wonder if judges have party affiliation (records)?  Fire every judge not a (AKP) party member?  Seems doubtful there'd been a personal dossier on 2700 judges.

This is the expected post coup crackdown.  All (possible) opposition can now be rounded up.  Initial report of around 3000 military arrested, but total arrests now at 6000.  

Our recent Turkish poster with an 1800 valk said he was an administrative law judge in Ankara.  

I certainly doubt he orchestrated a conspiracy to his own regime.  How do you get all (or any) the military volunteers to be martyrs?  A much more likely scenario would be that he got good intel about it beforehand (maybe not the exact launch date/time), and set up plans to let it start, then end it quickly.  The Turkish secret police/intelligence service has always been top notch (and Erdogan has been in power 13 years).  That he was out of town and called the people to the streets from social media on his cell phone does not sound like he knew the launch date/time.

In any event the coup was poorly planned and more poorly executed, and the consensus is that the actors felt they had better go now before it became impossible later.  If not now, then when?

Had the people risen up in support (rather than against) it might have carried the day.  But without it, it seems to have been doomed from the start.  Again, a very poor pre-coup intelligence assessment of popular support.  

Apparently all the opposition parties and many Erdogon foes decided they did not want a military coup, even though they have considerable grievances with Erdogan.  They may feel a Turkish patriot should do things by the book through free elections, not by a coup.  Or they feared a coup government as much as Erdogan's.  And of course a lot of people no doubt felt that the coup had little chance to succeed, and if they threw in, they stood to be quickly martyred/jailed/ruined for no return on the sacrifice.

We see reports of public support for bringing back a death penalty (though he controls the press).  In our country, you generally can't up the penalty after the arrest and charges are brought (ex-post facto laws).

One would hope Erdogan would have leniency for the majority of rank and file junior troops who mostly appear to have fired on no one (and surrendered without battle).  Esp in a case where both sides carried the Turkish flag with them into action.  Long jail terms or hanging thousands of conscript 20-22yo's will not make him popular with anyone.

[The emperor has no clothes]

Dang, I forgot about our member from Turkey. Hope he's okay.