Thinking about Clintons stratagy for tonight's debate.

[mike72903]

 If I were Mrs. Clinton I'm not worried about losing the election to Mr. Trump. At this point in time it seems she is better off against him then against, well almost anybody. YMMV.  So why add to the GOP's cries for him to step down?  Undoubtedly he is her preferred opponent.  Will she give him a pass on his latest troubles or back off least she tips the scales toward a different opponent? She wants to prevail of course but how to do that without further embarrasing the GOP? And, do you think Mr. Trump will try and project a more humble and apologitic tone, or continue to just be himself?

[old2soon]

How come we are hearing bout all this Trump stuff from 8 10 12 years ago on him and nary a word on her sordid pass?? RIDE SAFE.

[Moonshot_1]

If I were Mrs. Clinton I'm not worried about losing the election to Mr. Trump. At this point in time it seems she is better off against him then against, well almost anybody. YMMV.  So why add to the GOP's cries for him to step down?  Undoubtedly he is her preferred opponent.  Will she give him a pass on his latest troubles or back off least she tips the scales toward a different opponent? She wants to prevail of course but how to do that without further embarrasing the GOP? And, do you think Mr. Trump will try and project a more humble and apologitic tone, or continue to just be himself?

My advice to Mrs. Clinton and any candidate or any person for that matter...Never, never underestimate your opponent.

As to strategy. An 11 year old audio byte with sordid and lewd comments vs. her husband's track record of known victims and her calling them bimbos and then some.

Both should be willing to get this out of the gutter. It is up to them.

The latest Trump "scandal" will blow over quickly. Locker room guy talk over a hot mike 11 years ago on a radio show cannot possibly "trump" destroying evidence under Congressional subpoena and staff taking the 5th in a self proclaimed "transparent" administration.

Simple truth so far is this. Mr. Trump's so called transgressions and scandals pale in comparison to the scandals of many politicians currently serving in office now. This includes both parties.

Trump's biggest problem is that he probably isn't slimey enough to be a politician. Used car salesman, sure but he has a ways to go before he's slimey enough to be a politician.

[Valkorado]

How come we are hearing bout all this Trump stuff from 8 10 12 years ago on him and nary a word on her sordid pass?? RIDE SAFE.

Well, just recently the sniper fire dodging (remember that one?  ) turdette called me and many millions of other Americans irredeemable deplorables.  But, she's a sweetheart underneath it all.  Give me a break!

Afterthought.  When we have self serving politicians identifying who is redeemable and who is not, were in big trouble!  Last I checked, that task belongs to a higher power than even the mighty Hillary

[sleepngbear]

The ONLY Clinton strategy I'll be happy with is quitting. I wouldn't cry if she decided to drop dead either, though admittedly that's a little morbid.

[Robert]

Bring up as many bad points about Trump as she can then lie lie lie. Obama played liberals and blacks and the younger generation like a fiddle and Hillary may even be worse, dont you ever get tired of being lied to? She has already admitted of being out of touch with the middle class.

[F-six]

I don't think mrs. Clinton needs to do much, mr. Trump is perfectly capable of getting himself into trouble.

[old2soon]

I've already ordered my-Basket of Deplorables T-shirt along with my other new T-shirt-Hilary for PRISON 2016. RIDE SAFE.

[Valkorado]

I don't think mrs. Clinton needs to do much, mr. Trump is perfectly capable of getting himself into trouble.

And Mrs. Clinton has a knack for slithering away from criminal prosecution like snake in the grass.

[dragonslayer]

Just a short note,we had a Trump rally in Melbourne that expected maybe 10k well 27k showed up,Hildabeast had one in Ft. Pierce and just barely made 3k and Caine had one in Orlando and I must say I had more people at my house for dinner once.Now I want someone to please explain how Dems are leading in the polls.One governer denounced his support of Trump and got nothing but boos from the crowd.

[Jess from VA]

She is leading in the polls because they lie about them too.

[Moonshot_1]

Just a short note,we had a Trump rally in Melbourne that expected maybe 10k well 27k showed up,Hildabeast had one in Ft. Pierce and just barely made 3k and Caine had one in Orlando and I must say I had more people at my house for dinner once.Now I want someone to please explain how Dems are leading in the polls.One governer denounced his support of Trump and got nothing but boos from the crowd.

Came up with a theory the other day about Trump and the polls.
I got to thinking about the reports and opinions from the pundits about the "enthusiasm" Trump supporters have and the general enthusiasm of the rallies.

Obviously this isn't apparent in the polls and I got to wondering why not.

As I thought about this I thought that for decades the various polling organizations have done these polls and the polls have evolved to the point that they all use the same basic methods.
You get your sample group, 1000 people perhaps, determine the various groups and demographics within it, subject them to a list of questions.

You get the data and the goal is to take the data and get it to reflect the opinion of 350 million of our electorate.

You do this by putting the data from the sample group into a model. Over the years the models have become pretty standard I would think and from the results, and the similarity of the results from various polling organizations would tend to confirm that.

So I would think a standard political polling model would be largely based on the 2 party system we have in our political world.

You have a large Democrat demographic, an almost, if not equally large Republican demographic, you have a statistically insignificant 3rd party demographic and you have the statistically significant Independent demographic.

That is the basic model with the detailed demographics (age, gender, race, income) being applied within them.

Sound pretty logical?

My contention is that all of them are and have been wrong.
None of them can take into account Trump's enthusiastic voters.

Now an enthusiastic vote counts the same and an unenthusiastic vote.
So that doesn't mean anything but...

In the last few decades of Presidential elections what was the percentage of voter turnout of eligible voters?

I don't know and I'm not going to look it up but it seems that it is usually rather anemic.
But let's give it a positive spin and say that there has been a 60% turnout. That is 40% not voting.
If you figure, let's say 10% not voting due to the circumstances of life (death in family, medical emergency, etc) that is 30% not voting.

My contention is that the 30% are disenchanted voters and for decades this demographic has never been accounted for in the polling because they consistently do not vote in the elections. They are disenchanted with establishment politics and establishment politicians often not seeing any difference between the two parties or their politicians.

My contention is that many of those 30% (give or take a few) are going to step out of that demographic and vote.

And it won't be for Hillary. Because she represents the establishment.

So I will expect to see the polls bounce around for the next couple of weeks then close and get real tight. This assuming the current glide path until election day.

And on election day Trump defies the polls and wins by historic margins.

[solo1]

A picture is worth a thousand expert polls.  For those who don't know history, Dewey was so certain to win that the newspaper printed it.  Truman beat his butt. (yeh, Truman was a Democrat, they were more honest and capable then)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Deweytruman12.jpg

[Oss]

Solo you were reading my mind there

Who do you trust to defend our veterans, our police, our border, our trade, our 2nd and 1st amendment rights

Do you trust the secret service accounts of what life with Hillary was like?

Do you care whether Hillary is a lesbian or whether Donald or Bill even get laid again outside their marriage

Do you think any Democrat gives a rats ass about any urban area

Do you think either will rescue coal and steel and our industries which are tarriffed out of existence currently

Make your choice and live with it  Just VOTE

As for me, the Trump sign went up on Thursday on my lawn right about 10 feet below the flag in the front yard

[mike72903]

Well since no one wants to try, I'll venture that HC, instead of constantly attacking DT for his latest troubles, will try to ignore those things to some extent and try to project policy knowledge and competence.  I think DT will try to be somewhat contrite, and maybe even apologetic to try and project a sense of humility.  Might be wrong

[old2soon]

I'm originally from the Chicago area. My brother is Still in that area. I'm going to have him check and see the last time Mom and Dad voted. They've both been gone a fair number of years. IF yer familiar with Chicago politics-them STILL voting is a distinct possibility. Any Questions as to the WHY of no politicos pushing for voter I D??  RIDE SAFE.

[Rams]

Well since no one wants to try, I'll venture that HC, instead of constantly attacking DT for his latest troubles, will try to ignore those things to some extent and try to project policy knowledge and competence.  I think DT will try to be somewhat contrite, and maybe even apologetic to try and project a sense of humility.  Might be wrong

While I have no idea, I sure hope she brings up Trump's past.

That will open the gate for so much on her and Billy.   

[John Schmidt]

I'm originally from the Chicago area. My brother is Still in that area. I'm going to have him check and see the last time Mom and Dad voted. They've both been gone a fair number of years. IF yer familiar with Chicago politics-them STILL voting is a distinct possibility. Any Questions as to the WHY of no politicos pushing for voter I D??  RIDE SAFE.

Dennis, I lived in the Chicago 'burbs for a few years after the military and that very issue became a local joke. Only problem is....it wasn't funny. Some precincts had more votes for Kennedy than there were residents, so guess which extra votes got tossed. Anybody wonder how our current dufus fared in Cook County during his State Senate election and later the POTUS? Chicago and Cook County politics at its finest. 

[Pappy!]

Liberals....just remember one thing.....

Clinton epitomizes exactly what this country is cursed tired of. Lying-ass politicians, out for their own gain on the backs of the middle class.
 

[cookiedough]

gee, tough decision, watch 2 bonehead politicians go at it or watch the Pack beat up the Giants at home in mightly Lambeau.

7-0 so far - GO PACK GO!!!  

am flipping it to the debate on commercial of Packer game.  I so far notice Trump sniffles a LOT and the commentators are almost attacking Trump.  When Trump attacks Hillary on her deleted emails, etc.,  I cannot stand Hillary smiling like nothing happened and is a joke.  I like how Trump just stated if elected, he will hire a special prosecutor on her email issues and the audience applauded when he said 'she will be in jail'.  That was funny and oh so true!!

[FryeVRCCDS0067]

Well since no one wants to try, I'll venture that HC, instead of constantly attacking DT for his latest troubles, will try to ignore those things to some extent and try to project policy knowledge and competence.  I think DT will try to be somewhat contrite, and maybe even apologetic to try and project a sense of humility.  Might be wrong

While I have no idea, I sure hope she brings up Trump's past.

That will open the gate for so much on her and Billy.   

And it happened. Trump took off the gloves and won! Sweet! She'll look better in stripes anyway. Oh, I guess that kind of remark makes me a deplorable. 

[Pappy!]

Ain't deplorable life great! 

[Rams]

Clinton is the more polished debater and politician, I won't say those are necessarily good things but, I'll give her that.   But, I think Trump scored some major hits.   Other than Trumps screw up on the most recent female issue, I don't think Hillary scored any.   But, I'll admit, I don't like much about Hillary.

Will that be significant in the undecided voter's minds?   Hard to say.
I'm quite sure that those of us who have made a decision did not changed their minds.

[solo1]

I think that the undecided voters might get tired of the media openly biased against Trump and vote for Trump.

[RDKLL]

Obviously cannot be sure...

...but the zeal some of the "undecided" voters asked some of those questions makes me think they said what they had to, to ensure they got picked and able to be on TV...

[..]

How come we are hearing bout all this Trump stuff from 8 10 12 years ago on him and nary a word on her sordid pass?? RIDE SAFE.

Some seem to have conveniently forgotten at that time he was a supposed Democrat. A Democrat yet he said those deplorable things!!!! How foul!

[therapist]

Liberals....just remember one thing.....

Clinton epitomizes exactly what this country is cursed tired of. Lying-ass politicians, out for their own gain on the backs of the middle class.
 

PolitiFact's running tally of false statements by the candidates give Clinton the edge. More then 50 percent of Clinton's statements have been rated true or mostly true compared to less than 20 percent of Trump's.

[solo1]

PolitiFact's running tally of false statements by the candidates give Clinton the edge. More then 50 percent of Clinton's statements have been rated true or mostly true compared to less than 20 percent of Trump's.
QUOTE by Therapist.

Acoording to Wikimedia, Eric Osterman, professor at the University of Minnesota, in a study that he did on 511 stories by PolitiFacts, he noted that 74% were about lies from Republcans while 22% were about lies from Democrats.  Professor Osterman further states that PolitiFacts is engaging in the sport of game hunting....................the elephant.

You might trust the media but I don't.  Politifacts can take their "facts" and..............I won't finish that, might get me in trouble if I ever run for political office again.

Solo1 

[Rams]

Liberals....just remember one thing.....

Clinton epitomizes exactly what this country is cursed tired of. Lying-ass politicians, out for their own gain on the backs of the middle class.
 

PolitiFact's running tally of false statements by the candidates give Clinton the edge. More then 50 percent of Clinton's statements have been rated true or mostly true compared to less than 20 percent of Trump's.

I used to trust what I read from supposedly neutral or unbiased sources.   
I've learned my lesson though...............

I think everyone knows and expects politicians to stretch the truth or spin something to their favor.   I listened very carefully while Hillary explained what she meant by "private versus public positions".     I'm amazed her nose didn't grow.       

[G-Man]

Since nobody asked.....

I believe Trump bringing Bill into the mix was perfectly fine, and would have been insane if he didn't.

Hillary, and the moderator's were trying to make a case that because Trump treats women badly, he is not qualified for the presidency. 

For the life of me, I can't see why she would continue to push that narrative.

Trump did exactly what he was supposed to, simply expose Bill.  Demonstrate he did worse and that she was fine with it then, and so were all the liberal women out there who adore Bill were/are fine with it.  I guess they thought it would somehow backfire? 

Advantage Trump on that one. 

He hammered her terrible record in the middle east, exposed her no-show senate job, kinda eluded to her healthcare failure as 1st lady, and kept at it on the e-mail/communication exposure fiasco.

And the audience was clearly for TRUMP.

[Oss]

Liberal women wont vote for any republican because of abortion


PERIOD

  But smart women know and dont like bullying and it sure looked like 3 on 1 to my wife By the end of the night she was aghast at the revelations of Hillary as defense atty gloating over rape victim prosecution being lost.

Rape allegations and payments for hush money (see Bill Cosby) is the ammunition that will always beat what someone says Trump stupidly says about women as it is violent and non consensual

Can someone (JESS) please PM me the link to the US code about being disqualified for federal office on the classified thing

It has come up in my practice and I want to hammer some wavering democrats at work

[Jess from VA]

U.S. Code Title 18, Section 2071.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071

http://www.truthrevolt.org/videos/bill-whittle-criminal-arrogance-hillary-clinton

Snopes says it's inapplicable to her.  Of course they do. 

[Pappy!]

All I can say about last night is.......the FLY got it right!

[Gavin_Sons]

Jess, did you fact check that on her website?

[FryeVRCCDS0067]

Jess, did you fact check that on her website?

Someone at work was saying their wife tried to use the HC fact check and discovered you had to make a contribution first. I don't know if it was a computer problem or if it's actually so.

[Jess from VA]

Jess, did you fact check that on her website?

Really?  Really?!

I'd rather apply to the Taliban (on-line) than open her website. 

[FryeVRCCDS0067]

Jess, did you fact check that on her website?

Really?  Really?!

I'd rather apply to the Taliban (on-line) than open her website.