Get Ready for $4 Gasoline!

[F6Dave]

Rystad Energy is an energy research and business intelligence company in Norway. They provide data like price forecasts that's critical for planning capital expenditures for projects like wells and infrastructure. Here's their latest outlook for the Iran war and its effect on prices.

Full resolution - 5% probability - $0 to $2 per barrel price increase
Narrow deal - 40% probability - $5 to $10 per barrel price increase
Stalemate - 35% probability - $10 to $15 per barrel price increase
Restart of fighting - 20% probability - $15 to $20 per barrel price increase

This was released about a week ago, around the time the bombs started flying, so my guess is the last category will get a higher probability. But what's interesting is the very low chance of a full resolution.

[Jersey mike]

Rystad Energy is an energy research and business intelligence company in Norway. They provide data like price forecasts that's critical for planning capital expenditures for projects like wells and infrastructure. Here's their latest outlook for the Iran war and its effect on prices.

Full resolution - 5% probability - $0 to $2 per barrel price increase
Narrow deal - 40% probability - $5 to $10 per barrel price increase
Stalemate - 35% probability - $10 to $15 per barrel price increase
Restart of fighting - 20% probability - $15 to $20 per barrel price increase

This was released about a week ago, around the time the bombs started flying, so my guess is the last category will get a higher probability. But what's interesting is the very low chance of a full resolution.

I understand the people who write these articles and give out their professional advice and opinions because it's their job. Since the beginning of the current administration there have been dozens and dozens of articles written and just as many interviews given saying that Trump and his economic vision would fall flat on its face and the country would basically fall into despair.

So many articles were written saying the events in Venezuela would have no immediate impact on oil as well as nobody would ever (or at least for decades) be interested in basically settling foot back in Venezuela for oil, and yet there is renewed interest in Venezuela.

When I see reports like this it makes me think why aren't they focusing hard on what has occurred in California and the impact the over regulation and restrictions have impacted what we are capable of producing here for relief and the benefits petroleum products production brings to the people of California and the the rest of the country.

The petroleum professionals and their media minds should be pumping out articles and any supporting information on just what the over regulation and restrictions have caused as well as the ridiculous green energy policies that are basically a joke. We all the solar and wind are not the answer and cannot run a states electricity and transportation needs not to mention the what the production of solar panels and lithium batteries do to the environment.

We are in this situation now with Iran, this was inevitable. Lots of people like to say Iran was basically minding their own business, The Strait was open and there was no issue. Yes The Strait was open for commerce, because Iran was trying to fly under the radar with thier interests and that the truth of the matter. They were trying to lay as low as they could without drawing too much attention to themselves but Trump and Israel knew just what they were up to with their nuclear intentions. This isn't Trump's war, this isn't Israel's war. This is Iran's war, if you can even call what's happening "war" and it's a shame European nations, who we considered allies hace decided not to engage. So yeah we'll spend ordinance and we'll use fuel and the biggest...unfortunately we will lose service personnel. If there was ever a situation that was to be considered a "police action" I could see labeling this issue with Iran as a police action. Iran's leaders and its proxies in the region are the last of a out of date ideology and they are the only things standing in the way of real progress, real change and real stability in that region, I'd like to say peace in the region but I believe that comes further down the road.

[F6Dave]

Oil and gas companies don't pay research firms like Rystad to read their opinion pieces. They need reliable data to make critical capital investment decisions. When you're budgeting to drill a $10+ million well you need to project future cash flow in order to calculate how quickly the well will pay out. Investors demand it. To do this, engineers and geoscientists estimate years of oil and gas flows, then apply price forecasts build cash flow projections. Data from firms like Rystad helps with price forecasts. Because of oil's volatility, multiple price cases are needed for the budgeting process. That's the reason for the range of price premiums based on different Iran war scenarios.

I share your concerns about the damage done by the radical anti-fossil fuel movement. Hydrocarbon energy is the most important commodity on the planet. Without it the mass cultivation, processing, and transportation of food would be impossible. Things we take for granted like clean drinking water would become luxuries. Without oil, natural gas, and coal civilization would devolve into a Mad Max scenario in weeks of not days.

So I'm proud to have worked in the oil and gas industry since 1981, when I started my career with Texaco. I 'mostly' retired in 2021 but still work when I get the chance. Last year I spent 7 months as a database consultant helping a company with an acquisition in Utah. I didn't accept that work for the money, though the extra income was nice. I did it because I enjoy the oil and gas industry so much, and was anxious to see what had changed in the last few years (a LOT had). I also wanted to see how the improved environment under Trump was working out. I think Bergum, Zeldin, and Wright are some of his best choices.

I support Trump but I'm not a cheerleader. I think he was poorly advised on the challenges of this war. He hasn't helped himself with claims like 'it will be over in a few weeks' and 'their military is decimated'. I want him to succeed. If he doesn't it could become a quagmire that defines his presidency and strengthens Iran. Thankfully he has more determination than any president of my lifetime. He'll need it.

[Jersey mike]

Oil and gas companies don't pay research firms like Rystad to read their opinion pieces. They need reliable data to make critical capital investment decisions. When you're budgeting to drill a $10+ million well you need to project future cash flow in order to calculate how quickly the well will pay out. Investors demand it. To do this, engineers and geoscientists estimate years of oil and gas flows, then apply price forecasts build cash flow projections. Data from firms like Rystad helps with price forecasts. Because of oil's volatility, multiple price cases are needed for the budgeting process. That's the reason for the range of price premiums based on different Iran war scenarios.

I share your concerns about the damage done by the radical anti-fossil fuel movement. Hydrocarbon energy is the most important commodity on the planet. Without it the mass cultivation, processing, and transportation of food would be impossible. Things we take for granted like clean drinking water would become luxuries. Without oil, natural gas, and coal civilization would devolve into a Mad Max scenario in weeks of not days.

So I'm proud to have worked in the oil and gas industry since 1981, when I started my career with Texaco. I 'mostly' retired in 2021 but still work when I get the chance. Last year I spent 7 months as a database consultant helping a company with an acquisition in Utah. I didn't accept that work for the money, though the extra income was nice. I did it because I enjoy the oil and gas industry so much, and was anxious to see what had changed in the last few years (a LOT had). I also wanted to see how the improved environment under Trump was working out. I think Bergum, Zeldin, and Wright are some of his best choices.

I support Trump but I'm not a cheerleader. I think he was poorly advised on the challenges of this war. He hasn't helped himself with claims like 'it will be over in a few weeks' and 'their military is decimated'. I want him to succeed. If he doesn't it could become a quagmire that defines his presidency and strengthens Iran. Thankfully he has more determination than any president of my lifetime. He'll need it.

Ok, I'll take your input and opinion on Rystad as a good endorsement as a good/reliable source   of industry knowledge and information. You're the one in the industry, not me and I'll take your word on the who's who.

Sounds like you had a career you enjoyed and are still interested and involved in  congrats, that pretty rare.

As for the remaining part of your post I believe we're essentially on the same page.

[F6Dave]

The petroleum professionals and their media minds should be pumping out articles and any supporting information on just what the over regulation and restrictions have caused as well as the ridiculous green energy policies that are basically a joke.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright showed how to do this. About 5 years ago an Energy service company in Texas ordered jackets bearing their logo from North Face. I think it was for employee Christmas gifts. North Face refused the order, citing their disdain for the oil and gas industry.

Wright responded with an ad campaign (including billboards near the North Face HQ) titled 'Thank You North Face'. It noted that 90% of the materials in North Face clothing are derived from petroleum, and thanked them for using his industry's products, and for being such a good 'partner'. What a way to expose the left's hypocrisy!

I've read that when Trump asked Bergum to be his Energy Secretary, Bergum said there was a better choice: Chris Wright.

[Jersey mike]

I never heard that story, but it's pretty funny and more like it is needed.

I did find his video though;

[LadyDraco]

YES , People often forget just how much fossil fuels are used in everything.
Oil is in so many products, far more than most realize. Anything made of plastic or metal, you name it, has oil in it one way or another.
We can never truly get away from oil, gas, or coal, no matter how much people think we can ;
we simply cannot.
Wind turbines, for example, only operate at about 33% efficiency and aren't the answer, since their components are made with oil and coal-based materials.
The only real alternative would be going back to using horses and oxen, growing our own food, and living a simple life which, in reality, is anything but simple.
I know this firsthand, living on the fringe of it.

OK Soapbox put away.

[Jersey mike]

Yes petroleum products are used in the production of so many products sold, even in clothing.

The clothing fibers (as fillers and warmth) used for all the nice weather resistant products, the vinyl for protective liners or outer shells, the ropes used in climbing, plastics used for goggles and anything nylon.

Consider some items in your home or car, plastics of one nature or another. The frame of a tv or the dashboard/control and trim pieces of your car. The phones, cameras, computers, we use. Then there's plumbing and natural gas supplies and so many other things that are just taken for granted like the vinyl windows and doors in homes or the hand held and stationary power tolls that are so popular. And don't forget the highways we drive on. The list is never ending.

[LadyDraco]

Even  makeup .
It gets mind boggling for sure.

[Jersey mike]

Just a quick search led me to this list of 144 products and as you read through it you can say oh what about this or what about that as well as so many subsections of anything on that list, not to mention as technically and new products are created it will only grow.

One item I left out from above is pretty much anything footwear and sports related including items like the modern stretchy pants women like to wear (I think that's Lycra) and all types of hospital and medical equipment.


There is no date on this that I could find;

" 144 Products Made From Petroleum And 4 That May Shock You"

https://innovativewealth.com/inflation-monitor/what-products-made-from-petroleum-outside-of-gasoline/

[F6Dave]

Just imagine having a medical procedure performed without disposable plastics. Ugh!

[F6Dave]

Wind turbines, for example, only operate at about 33% efficiency and aren't the answer, since their components are made with oil and coal-based materials.

Solar is no better. Even in ideal desert conditions solar can only produce 25% of its rated capacity. And in cloudy places like the Midwest that number drops into the teens. It's not just the nights that solar doesn't work, it's the mornings and evenings with the sun at a steep angle.

So with wind and solar working far less than half the time, backup is critical. Batteries help only a tiny bit. Even the largest battery storage facilities (with thousands of Tesla sized battery packs) can only provide a few hours of power. That wouldn't help during a cloudy, wind free week in the winter.

That leaves conventional power plants, and natural gas works best since it can fire up so quickly, like the burner on a stove. But a conventional power plant running half the time makes no economic sense. It still costs the same to build, maintain, insure, and staff. So if it generates only half of the revenue, it has to charge more for electricity. That's Econ 101. And that's a big reason why states with the most wind and solar also have the highest electric rates.

[0leman]

There is a lot of problems with Wind/Solar.  What are we going to do with the panels and blades when they need to be replaced?   Right now, there is now economical way for them to be recycled.  What about the concrete under the windmills? It can't be used again when they are preplaced.  On solar farms, is there a problem with the toxic chemical in the panels leching out on the ground? Probably!

Also, a fun fact is that the panels lose several percent of the ability to produce electricity for every degree over 75.  So, on a 90 degree day, aren't producing the electricity that it is rated for.

[Jersey mike]

Windmills;

Question; how many gallons of lubricant are required for an industrial windmill

Response;

An industrial wind turbine typically requires around 2,000 gallons of oil, which includes approximately 800 gallons of gear oil and 1,200 gallons of transformer oil. Regular maintenance is essential to ensure optimal performance and longevity.



Also, don't know the reliability of this website, it was a fast search;




https://www.wind-watch.org/documents/how-much-oil-is-required-to-run-a-wind-turbine/

Key Takeaways
Gear oil: around 800 gallons per turbine for gearboxes.
Transformer oil: approximately 1200 gallons per turbine for transformers.
Annual oil consumption: averages 80 gallons per turbine.
Synthetic oils are preferred for wind turbine applications.
Proper maintenance crucial for productivity and environmental sustainability.

[F6Dave]

Wind turbines use an astounding amount of concrete and steel for the base. Just imagine the wind load on those things! For the larger turbines the base can weigh more than 1,000 tons. And keep in mind that concrete production uses vast amounts of water and energy.

[Jersey mike]

Wind turbines use an astounding amount of concrete and steel for the base. Just imagine the wind load on those things! For the larger turbines the base can weigh more than 1,000 tons. And keep in mind that concrete production uses vast amounts of water and energy.

This seems to have turned a bit off course onto windmills but I swear it's coincidental about this local article;

" PJM's Wind and Solar Couldn't Keep Up When Americans Needed it Most in July"

The U.S. Department of Energy said renewable energy output fell sharply during peak demand hours as the nation's largest regional power grid faced record electricity use during an early July heat wave.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The U.S. Department of Energy is pointing to grid performance during a record-breaking heat wave earlier this month as evidence of the importance of maintaining conventional power generation, citing steep declines in wind and solar output during periods of highest electricity demand.

In a statement, the department said customers served by the PJM Interconnection experienced extreme electricity demand on July 2 and 3, when temperatures averaged about 97 degrees across much of the region. PJM, the nation's largest regional transmission organization, reported a preliminary all-time peak demand of approximately 168 gigawatts during the event.

According to the department, during the 5 p.m. peak demand period on both days, about 82% of available wind generation was unavailable. By sunset, the department said, approximately 99% of solar generation had gone offline as daylight faded.

"Thankfully, we have stopped the premature shutdown of reliable power," the Department of Energy wrote in its post.

https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/pjms-wind-and-solar-couldnt-keep-up-when-americans-needed-it-most-in-july/

[F6Dave]

Wind and solar zealots rarely mention that very hot and cold weather is often accompanied by almost no wind. That's an inconvenient fact.

[F6Dave]

I paid over $4.50 for ethanol free 87 yesterday. Premium is back up to $5 and even the 85 octane junk they call regular around here is $4.

Things don't look good in Iran, especially if weapon stockpiles are running low as has been reported. Trump needs to turn this around before it defines his presidency. And if the world concludes that American can't defeat Iran, adversaries like China will be emboldened. There's a lot at stake here.

[Pluggy]

I paid over $4.50 for ethanol free 87 yesterday. Premium is back up to $5 and even the 85 octane junk they call regular around here is $4.

Dave, I just opened the 2003 owners manual to Page 189.  It tells us: "You may use gasoline containing up to 10% ethanol by volume."  Can you get E10, 87 octane?  That's Regular, here at $3.44.

Page 190 says damages from using fuel containing more than 10% ethanol are not covered by warranty.

Many owners prefer ethanol-free gas when storing the bike over the Winter.  From 2006 until 2023, ethanol-free gasoline was not available to me.  The bike ran perfectly using the available E10.  No harm done.

[F6Dave]

I paid over $4.50 for ethanol free 87 yesterday. Premium is back up to $5 and even the 85 octane junk they call regular around here is $4.

Dave, I just opened the 2003 owners manual to Page 189.  It tells us: "You may use gasoline containing up to 10% ethanol by volume."  Can you get E10, 87 octane?  That's Regular, here at $3.44.

Page 190 says damages from using fuel containing more than 10% ethanol are not covered by warranty.

Many owners prefer ethanol-free gas when storing the bike over the Winter.  From 2006 until 2023, ethanol-free gasoline was not available to me.  The bike ran perfectly using the available E10.  No harm done.

I have 4 bikes and since some may sit around for a few months, I always use E0 out of caution. Same for my mowers. On a road trip I fill up with E10 and don't worry a bit.

On my way to Inzane in Dubuque I started to fill up with E15, but stopped immediately because I could smell the difference. I filled the rest of the tank with E10 and wasn't concerned. The station (a Loves in Nebraska I think) had red labels on E15 nozzles, while near my home QT stations use red labels for E0. I now read the labels more carefully!

Here in the mountain states regular E10 is 85 octane and mid-grade E10 is 87. So the prices stations post are misleading, since nearly all new vehicles require 87 octane.

[Pluggy]

Our local Sheetz station has 88 octane E15 for 50 cents less than Regular E10 87. E15 contains 1.6% less energy than E10, but is the miles-per-dollar winner. My Ford is a flex fuel V8 so I'll buy that E15 when available.

[Jersey mike]

I paid over $4.50 for ethanol free 87 yesterday. Premium is back up to $5 and even the 85 octane junk they call regular around here is $4.

Things don't look good in Iran, especially if weapon stockpiles are running low as has been reported. Trump needs to turn this around before it defines his presidency. And if the world concludes that American can't defeat Iran, adversaries like China will be emboldened. There's a lot at stake here.

Unless I'm completely naive I have no concerns over our weapons stockpiles.

To me all the hubbub is for negative public opinion. If there's one thing I've learned about the United States of America is that when it comes to military spending, equipment and stock, only a select few know what's really what. Heck, just look at Area51, we still don't really know what goes on out there other than what is told to us and to be honest I'm perfectly fine with that, whether it really is aliens, secret aircraft or reverse engineering alien space ingenuity. I don't care as long as our military is protecting our country. As many say this is why a "toilet seat" cost hundreds of dollars. Like I said, we are the U.S. of A and when it comes to certain things like defense and weapons, one thing America is good at is being a bit gluttonous on certain issues and I believe we have weapons coming out our tushies, it's all a matter of just who is doing the inventory. I don't knkw who these so-called experts are but if they're out there supporting the enemy by disclosing government secrets then they should suffer the consequences.

Have we used weapons, you bet we have. Did the previous administration sell off or give away weapons, they most certainly did...and many of which are said to be in short supply, yet that's not in or part of the game the media or naysayers play.

As for the president wanting supplies to be replenished more quickly, well who can blame him. When you use stock, you want those numbers replenish/replaced as soon as possible. We not talking can of peas in cupboard at home, we're talking about national security and defense. It's my opinion there's not too many people out there who understand rotating or replenishing what is used. Every weapon has a set purpose and should be able to be used on an as needed basis. Unfortunately every time defense wants to spend a few bucks it becomes a public opinion piece. Defense companies should know production is a priority and should be an utmost importance.

[F6Dave]

I hope you're right. The world would be a better place with different leadership in Iran. That was the original plan, but the rebellion they were counting on didn't happen.

If the Strait remains restricted the world will adjust. That's already happening with new pipeline plans. And if this lasts for an extended period, capital will get diverted to regions where oil is more reliably accessible. Places like the US, Canada, the North Sea, and Venezuela are obvious choices. The world needs oil.

[Jersey mike]

I think the concept of regime change runs a little parallel but I don't believe *all of this* was for that intent. Sure it would have been nice if the people stood up and fought with whatever they could and began claiming even smallest of victories, but as many have said it's difficult without weapons and I'm sure there are neighborhood spies for the regime/IRGC.

It seems we are now letting their economy just crash. It's sounds as though we've cut off (and are still looking for more ways of cutting off money supplies) the supply of money and the impact it has had. Do they have some cash stashed away somewhere, I'll bet the regime does but who gets paid is another story. They're certainly not flush like they were. We can wait them out and definitely do whatever on our own timeline. One thing I'm not pleased with was to hear yesterday we drew down our Strategic Oil Reserves a while back but we are supposed to replenish with appx 200M barrels innthe next year.


From April;

" These charts show how Iran's economy is in freefall"

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/iran-economy-war-charts-rial-oil-strait-hormuz-blockade.html


From yesterday;

" 5 charts show how nearly 6 months of war have hammered Iran's economy"

https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-economy-war-impact-oil-exports-inflation-unemployment-gdp-currency-2026-8?op=1


A quick question to Duckduck search assist;

Before the military action, one dollar traded for around 800,000 rials, while it now trades at approximately 1,620,000 rials, indicating a significant depreciation of the Iranian currency. This reflects a loss of over 50% of its value in just six months.

I believe this is strangulating them in combination with the military action we've taken. If anyone thought this would be over by now well, Iran is in it for the long haul and I believe the President and the administration knew this from the beginning. Iran's hope is to stretch this out in hopes to get to the next presidential election cycle and deal with a more passive administration like Obama or Biden.

We are going to have *expensive* gas for a while, however if anyone is really following the numbers our economy is doing very well regardless. Sure there's things to nitpick on but overall despite the (basically stable) gas prices the economy is chugging along. Now is everything coming up roses, no it certainly isn't. Unfortunately this thing with Iran had to be dealt with and it threw sand in the gears.

A quick synopsis;

" Our economic outlook for the United States"

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-united-states.html/


U.S. Govt Bureau of Economic Analysis;

https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

[F6Dave]

We're on the same page. You're just more optimistic.

I hope the economic pressure works. But I don't see that removing the current leadership. If those guys remain they will keep spreading chaos around the region and beyond. And we'll have to fight the same battles again and again. More than economic pressure was needed to defeat enemies like Hitler.

I heard an interesting theory on the radio. Since a ground invasion is politically impossible for Trump, he could promise Israel all the support and weapons they need if they would finish the job. That's not unlike what's happening in Ukraine.

[Jersey mike]

We're on the same page. You're just more optimistic.

I hope the economic pressure works. But I don't see that removing the current leadership. If those guys remain they will keep spreading chaos around the region and beyond. And we'll have to fight the same battles again and again. More than economic pressure was needed to defeat enemies like Hitler.

I heard an interesting theory on the radio. Since a ground invasion is politically impossible for Trump, he could promise Israel all the support and weapons they need if they would finish the job. That's not unlike what's happening in Ukraine.

The more pessimistic the reporting gets, the more it seems it's some type of sabotage scam. Whoever may be revealing military secrets or information/intelligence seems to be hypocritical and hypothetical on their end.

There's a few things that don't add up for me with Iran, they seem to be blowing some smoke on their abilities and just what they have "in stock" and ready to use.

Yesterday they supposedly said they still have 75% of their weapons...missiles and drones ready to go. If they have that much left and are willing to say so, if I was them, had as many weapons as being claimed and that my primary adversary was low on a particular weapon I'd be testing all regions for weaknesses. Maybe there's another method to their madness, but I think we've been nice not destroying virtually everything in sight on them. They really don't get the picture we can hit whatever we want, whenever we want.

This exercise has exposed so much more of the (world) big picture the President tried to *casually* inform people about, especially with our so called allies. America is suppose to jump when Europe wants us to but when the USA wants a pound of flesh they're nowhere to be found. Yeah they helped some after 9/11 but their hypocrisy would have been on full display of they didn't.

[Jersey mike]

Interview today on FOX regarding the flow of oil and what exactly is happening behind the curtain.

4 minute video; To me, there are things discussed that I don't believe should be discussed, however maybe since he's a former National Security council director and seems to still have his clearance and contacts what he says isn't so secret. It's a head scratcher for me, why broadcast it, but then again why not to try and ease the minds of whoever may be watching.

" US, Iran showdown escalates over Strait of Hormuz as oil flows increase"

Former National Security Council director Rich Goldberg joins 'America's Newsroom' to analyze the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as millions of barrels flow through per day.
Former National Security Council director Rich Goldberg joins 'America's Newsroom' to discuss the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump claims the U.S. has 'total control' over the strait, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright highlights oil flows reaching 20 million barrels per day, demonstrating that Iran is losing its strategic leverage in the region.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6403334918112


This article was cowritten by Goldberg 8/12/26 (Yesterday)


" Tehran is losing its grip on Hormuz, and with it all its leverage"

https://nypost.com/2026/08/12/opinion/tehran-is-losing-its-grip-on-hormuz-and-with-it-all-its-leverage/

[F6Dave]

We might be the only two people reading this thread!

I never liked riding in large groups anyway.

[ridingron]

I'm reading and watching but I don't have anything to add.

[Jersey mike]

If the counter is accurate it has lot of views. Maybe it's too politically driven for the main board.

Fluctuations on gas prices will be a story for the media and politicians to feed on until the next presidential election and it will probably get worse as we get closer and closer. They'll hammer on gas prices being the reason for more green energy. They'll use unusual weather patterns and strong storms as a reason for the elimination of fossil fuels, more government control over energy, the creation of new energy offices/the hiring of more government workers to fill the "necessary positions" to advance those areas of concern.

This event in the Middle East is having long term effects, what we are seeing (unfortunately) is the beginning of those changes. The status quo has been changed. It really seems the surrounding regions are fed up with the antics out of Iran, they are the loose cannon in the region and the other oil producing countries are being proactive about it.

None of these "new" pipelines and the port being built are spur of the moment, shoot from the hip ideas. I guarantee these ideas have been "on paper" somewhere for a long time, they were t just pulled out of a hat or someone had a light bulb over the head moment. As long as the status quo was working countries were willing to just let it all ride. These contingency plans once up and running will help change things because oil will not have to flow out of Hormuz, but (IMO) if and when utilizing Hormuz in the future becomes viable again..."free flowing", oil could potentially be shipped via 2 areas which in my opinion will allow for more oil out in the market.

[F6Dave]

I hope this doesn't last through the 2028 elections! But Iran has said they want to outlast Trump and destroy his presidency, and I have no doubt they'll try. And China will help them.

People tend to adjust to higher prices over time. I remember the inflation of the 70s and 80s. I had a 10% mortgage and 12% car loan that was considered a bargain. My credit union had so many applications for that rate that there was a waiting list! $4 gas is still cheaper than most of the world pays.

Bu shortages are a different story, and we've seen very little of those yet. One is in natural gas from Qatar. They manufacture lots of chemicals that get used in products around the globe. The Hormuz closure and damage to their facilities has cut off many of those and affected fertilizer and motor oil. Pennzoil has already changed the formula of some of their motor oils that used liquefied natural gas.

But eventually oil shortages will appear. There's a lot of storage around the world (not just our SPR) and those reserves are being used up to offset what's not getting through Hormuz. At some point those reserves will dry up and some places will see actual shortages. Thankfully America is far more self sufficient today, thanks to innovation and risk taking in our oil industry. And in spite of people who fervently believe we can power the world with breezes and sunshine.

[Jersey mike]

I remember the gas crisis in the 70's but I was just a kid, 8 years old in '73 which I seem to remember were the gas lines and odd/even days. I also remember seeing the big signs outside of local banks for home mortgages and the high percentage rates. Funny the stuff that sticks in the memory banks.

I remember my dad being PO'd over the gas issue, being mad we imported so much oil from the Middle East, saying we should be pumping our own oil and we should never be in this position...relying on OPEC to keep our country moving.

You are correct, so much more moves through the strait of Hormuz than oil and that is something we will need to deal with as no other nation who also utilizes products from that region will help with anything regarding or related to keeping the shipping lane clear and safe. Did we initiate this situation, sure I'll go along with that however once again the USA is doing the heavy lifting on all aspects of the issue.

Like I tried to address in my previous post regarding Iran; the "if and when" has become the "here and now" and those nations making changes along with the USA are moving towards a new era for doing business in that region. Will everything turn out hunky dory, that's yet to be seen, unfortunately time will tell as change doesn't happen over night let alone in 6 months.


Added:

Things I remembered after posting this;

Since I was a kid, I did read the paper much further than the comic section or the sports pages but I do remember stories of people finding out their gas had been stolen out of their cars or trucks. Siphoning gas became a big problem and people buying locking gas caps.

[Hook#3287]

Aw yes, the oil embargo by OPEC, mainly against the US for support to Israel.

I remember it well, but it did spark quite a bit of new tech for additional sources and types of energy.

While already in concept, the Alaska pipe-line got a big push from congress.

We need to stay focused on the big picture and that is Iran having possession of a nuclear weapon.

Those mullah will use it if they have it and then gas prices will be the least of the worlds problems, cause there mostly won't be any.

I don't have much knowledge of what a local nuke bomb would do, don't really want to know, but if it could send the world into a nuclear winter, we're all done.

[F6Dave]

I remember a lot about the OPEC embargo in 1973. Gas jumped from the mid-30 cent range to around 50 cents. Pumps were all mechanical back then, and many older pumps could not be set higher than 49.9 cents. So those stations would set the pump to half of the sale price, then double the amount when you paid. I didn't see many gas lines, but many stations closed earlier so if you made a trip at night you had to fill up early.

1979 had another round of shortages triggered by the Iranian revolution. Oil doubled in price and $1 gas prices arrived for the first time. The market for small cars exploded, and many dealers charged above list.

1973 also created a chance for government to control your life, and they used it. Over the winter Nixon announced year-round daylight savings time. It was extremely unpopular in the northern states where the sun was already rising after 8 AM. Kids walking to school (they did that much more back then) in the dark angered parents and the idea was cancelled after that first winter. Trump might want to take note of this.

The 55 MPH national speed limit was also imposed that year to save fuel. That was much harder to get rid of and lasted in some form for nearly 2 decades. It was a stupid law that created a market for radar detectors and CB radios.

[Jersey mike]

OMG, 55 MPH! What a disaster. Felt like you were crawling on an interstate, and I didn't even drive.    I can't remember the 55 MPH promotional slogan...something like slow down, see America.

Yup, the radar detector era flourished and CB's became a big thing. We got the movie Convoy and it was like everyone was trying to learn all the CB lingo and radio codes.

Somewhere I have my dad's Radio Shack portable CB with magnetic antenna still in the plastic carrying case.

[F6Dave]

All those workarounds show what an incredibly unpopular law the 55 MPH limit was. And how tone deaf our 'representatives' are. As I remember it was partially fixed in 1987 when they allowed 65 MPH on 'rural' Interstates. But the full repeal didn't happen until '94 or so, a full 20 years later. That was longer than prohibition!

But our 'representatives' haven't learned. They're still at it with in car cameras that watch us drive, vehicle kill switches, and roadside revenue generation via camera cops.

[Hook#3287]

Haha, Sammy Hagar!  "I can't drive 55". Classic.

Man, over 40 years ago, holy moly!

As I stated, the goal of the war, as we common folk are told, is to prevent the crazy-a$$ mullah leaders of Iran from possessing a nuke bomb.

I'm down with that and if it means more cash at the pump, so be it, we can't change it.

The oil market will adapt as needed to keep the flow going.

And I really don't understand the lefty loonies complaining. Under Obama, they wanted very high gas prices to control vehicle usage to save the planet.

[F6Dave]

Schlumberger (now called SLB) is a huge oil & gas service company, much larger than Halliburton. They just announced a plan to reactivate up to 15 drilling rigs in Venezuela over the next year. Only 2 rigs were running at the end of July. This is great news with Hormuz nearly shut down.

[Jersey mike]

Reactive, that sure beats drilling new.

And there were folks saying it would or could be decades for companies to even think about stepping into Venezuela.

Since I don't know anything about drilling for oil, I can only guess there are inspections out wazoo and testing of the wells involved.

You got me curious so I looked for some news and they could have 4 up and running by the end of 2026.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/SLB-Prepares-to-Restart-15-Oil-Rigs-in-Venezuela.html

" SLB expects its 15 rigs in the country could all be working within a year, William Antonio, the company's president for Mexico, Central America and Venezuela operations, told Reuters. As many as four could return to service before the end of 2026, depending on contracts with producers."

" The potential revival comes as Venezuela seeks to rebuild an oil industry that once produced more than 3 million barrels per day.

Despite holding the world's largest proven crude reserves, Venezuela had only two active onshore drilling rigs at the end of July, according to Baker Hughes data cited by Reuters. Current production capacity stands at around 1.25 million bpd.

More drilling will be essential if Venezuela is to achieve substantial further production growth. Chevron, already one of the most important foreign producers in the country, said last month that output from its three Venezuelan joint ventures had reached around 280,000 bpd. The U.S. supermajor expects that figure could increase by as much as 50% by the end of 2028."

[Hook#3287]

From what I've read, Venezuela has heavy "sour" crude oil, but a lot.

Chevron has the facilities in country and in Venezuela to process it and is currently doing 250k to 375k barrels per day with capacity for much more.

USA refineries can handle that oil, which is used for diesel and jet fuel, according to what I read.

Anyways, I just paid $3.69 at the pump for 87